8% of sellers and 9% of buyers had left the platform: did you expect this?

[beautifulbeauty2012]

According to news, this is what statistics show. Are you surprised? 

[jewelbiz]

Saw this sign today.

Maybe they dropped out because like some of these people they stopped functioning?

[goldrushfinds]

That sounds like a bunch of nonsense jargon to keep stock prices up.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@espresso_warehouse  My statement is true. The 9% reflects accounts that have gone from active to inactive. It is not a count of accounts that were closed. Yes, of course, some of those accounts may have been closed, I thought my statement : "These sellers did not necessarily close their accounts" made that point. Maybe one of these sellers closed their account, maybe none, maybe many. But we do know what the number means..it means exactly what I said it means----12 month period, no sales, active to inactive, 2021 over 2020 comparison. And beyond that, we should not be pretending we know things we don't know, and we shouldn't be making up things that we can't prove.

The ONLY information we have is what I described. We have NO real information as to why this happened, all we know is a certain percentage of "active" sellers sold nothing in the 12 months preceding Dec 31st, 2021, and thus became "inactive" 

I fully expect the active buyer count will likely continue to decline because ebay has acknowledged that the buyer count had previously been increased by sending ebay (not seller) coupons in the Wenig years. The new CEO has deliberately stopped that, which has resulted in fewer active buyers, but has also increased ebay's revenue because it reduced ebay's marketing spend (the coupons). No doubt active buyer numbers fell for a variety of reasons, but that reason and ebay's decision to focus on increasing higher value buyers is a big factor.

I wouldn't be surprised if the active seller count also continues to decline, at least somewhat, as we can expect the 1099-K rule alone will be a factor (how significant remains to be seen).  But the significance of any decline is hard to measure without other data....active seller numbers could decline and , as we saw in Q4, ebay revenue could still increase. And if active sellers decline and both GMV and revenue increase, that's very different from a seller decrease and a GMV and revenue decrease. 

Neither the buyer nor the seller decrease will cause me to make changes here. I don't think either one is having any real impact on my business. ebay will continue to find ways to increase its take rate, and if ebay does not soon start increasing its GMV , the take rate increases versus GMV decreases could hit a tipping point. But we're not there yet, and we may never get there if ebay can substantially increase GMV. 

[espresso_warehouse]

You made this claim;

"This is not about sellers closing their accounts."

The thing is, it could very well be about account closures. It remains a distinct possibility. Especially on the buy side - could be scammer accounts getting ejected. Either way, a definitive statement without data is conjecture.

What I can tell you, with absolute certainty is that accounts were closed during 2020. I just don't know the exact distribution so I would veer away from making claims unless someone can provide data.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@espresso_warehouse 

Of course some accounts were almost certainly closed. I'm not saying they weren't. What I'm saying is this figure does NOT compare account closures in Q4 2021 with Account closures in Q4 2020...it compares the accounts that were deemed inactive.

So we should stick with what we KNOW.

Neither you nor I have any idea how many accounts were closed because that is not what this figure measures. 

[mam98031]

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques 

I agree with you regarding most of what you have said, but especially the statement that these numbers have not caused me any issues whatsoever with my little business.  In fact 2021 has been very good so far for me.  I am not at all affected one way or the other regarding the numbers.

It also should be noted that the GMV started to be calculated differently starting the 4th quarter of 2021 since they had 100% participation in the MP program.  They are no longer calculating the GMV based on the old way and now calculate it just as they calculate MP.  It is only calculated on paid transactions.  Unpaid transactions do not count like they did before.

So logically speaking the GMV would drop.

[mam98031]

@espresso_warehouse 

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques  has said on more than one occasion or posting here that yes some very well would be sellers closing their account.  And they have said that they don't know, nor do you how many sellers closed their accounts.  Neither of you or any of us have a way to know what that number would be.

It should be noted too that we also do not know how many accounts for a buyer or a seller were closed by Ebay and not voluntarily by the member.

[espresso_warehouse]

---

@mam98031 wrote:

@espresso_warehouse 

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques  has said on more than one occasion or posting here that yes some very well would be sellers closing their account.  And they have said that they don't know, nor do you how many sellers closed their accounts.  Neither of you or any of us have a way to know what that number would be.

It should be noted too that we also do not know how many accounts for a buyer or a seller were closed by Ebay and not voluntarily by the member.

---

Absolutely. Scammers for instance. I can point to several which were involuntarily removed.

I didn't want to keep splitting hairs about this, pointing out that it's actually not inactive but active, that it could be normal attrition with abnormal signups or the reverse.

Just going to have to see. Anyway we have bigger problems

[richard454]

I have seen every different thought on the numbers-up-down-sideways and even no change.

Bottom line- BBB complaints are UP 60% for eBay in the last year.

11,015 complaints last 3 years

5,044 in last 12 months

That - to me is the sums of the the things ebay is doing wrong.

[slippinjimmy]

I'm responsible for one of the no longer active buyers.

This posting account made a purchase in August/September  2020 but did not make a purchase since. That would mean that in October 2021 this id was added to the pile of no longer active account. It was also not an "active buyer" in 2016, 2018, 2019 when I made no purchases in a 12 month period.

Number of "active users" is a very vague statistic which is useful for hyping the stock market but doesn't necessarily reflect anything of consequence.

In 2020 under Covid lots of new users came to eBay to buy or sell, many have gone back to work, gone shopping in physical stores or just did their few transactions and moved on as many do. In 2021 fewer of these new buyers arrived on the scene to supplement the departure of older users.

I did expect a decline in numbers, back to the slow bleed that has been going on for quite some time.

The numbers for Active Users over time is difficult to accurately assess for several reasons;

- Active user stats in 2019 and a few years before that included users of Stub Hub as well as eBay, those numbers are not included in 2020/21 because Stub Hub was sold off in January 2020

- eBay changed their reporting metrics in Q4 2021 and they no longer consider a user who makes a purchase but does not pay as an "active user", although they adjusted the numbers for Q1,2,3 of 2021 I'm not sure how far back they went. That method alone would eliminate tens of thousands (maybe more) of the scam accounts that buy but never complete the transaction.

I'm quite confident that many of the lost users are the result of sellers who refused to enter into Managed Payments, remember that the surge in MP registrations started in the Fall of 2020 and really swung into high gear in January of 2021. Most of those sellers who are small timers many of whom were using their sales revenues to make purchases on eBay  so when they stopped selling they also stopped buying.

FYI - Unrelated but eBay will soon be allowing sellers to maintain a "spending balance" in their MP accounts and use those funds to make eBay purchases, this may have an effect on "active buyers" but I can't speculate on how much of an effect.

[mam98031]

Maybe so but you still kept posting about it after the other poster clearly said there is likely to me some in the mix.  

[mam98031]

---

@richard454 wrote:

I have seen every different thought on the numbers-up-down-sideways and even no change.

Bottom line- BBB complaints are UP 60% for eBay in the last year.

11,015 complaints last 3 years

5,044 in last 12 months

That - to me is the sums of the the things ebay is doing wrong.

---

Likely the reason for the high up tick on complaints had to do with Managed Payments.  Many sellers on the threads said they were going to file one.  Whether it was just because they didn't understand MP and thought they could force Ebay to allow them to stay with PP or maybe because their money was on hold or something else involving MP.  It is highly likely that subject is likely the reason for the huge change.

[mam98031]

@slippinjimmy 

Where did you get the information you stated about Ebay will soon allow us to use our MP accounts for purchasing things on Ebay???  When is "soon"?  Where did this info come from??

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@slippinjimmy  I second mam's questions. I do remember ebay stating last year... at a Seller Check in or maybe it was at ebay Open?...that they were working on providing a Managed Payments wallet, and strongly hinted we'd see it once everyone was onboarded. But I haven't seen any updates on that...would love to know if they have updated that, and especially if they've provided any timeline other than "soon."

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

I should add: I've been hoping they will have something to announce about the MP wallet at the March 10th Check In....