eBay

dugoldstuff · ‎07-22-2018

Very interesting article. I bolded /redded the best parts:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4188922-ebay-stagnation-mode

eBay: In Stagnation Mode

Jul. 21, 2018 3:18 PM ET

eBay's second-quarter earnings report fell heavily short of analyst expectations, with revenue growth dimming to 9% y/y (from 12% y/y last quarter). The company's below-consensus guidance caused the stock to take its biggest hit. GMV growth in the U.S. also showed its weakest growth rate since a year ago, while the volume of sold items stayed flat. Margins also showed a worrying contraction.

Despite all the signals that keep pointing to its demise, eBay (EBAY), the one-time e-commerce wunderkind, continues to plod forward as if it was still a giant of the internet. Like last quarter's earnings release, eBay's Q2 post showed a company that is continually unable to meet analysts' targets as the company fails to accelerate the process of bringing new buyers to its platform.

Rightly so, eBay has been one of the worst-performing of the large-cap internet stocks all year, despite general enthusiasm for the e-commerce space. Companies like Etsy (ETSY) and Stitch Fix (SFIX) that were earlier pegged as losers, for example, have shot up meaningfully in the first half of 2018, as has perpetual giant Amazon.com (AMZN). eBay, however, seems incapable of reversing its slow decline. Year to date, the stock is down nearly 10%.

Yet, I believe the shares have further to fall. Activity on eBay seems to simply be running cold. Call it the hangover effects of eBay's fee hikes in the past several years - as sellers walked out on eBay in protestation of higher seller fees and took their variety of wares with them, buyers also saw less and less reason to buy on eBay. One of the things shoppers like most about Amazon is that it's the "everything store," where you can type in even the most obscure of items and find at least one seller that carries it. On eBay, with both the selection and volume of items getting thinner, it's getting harder and harder to bring buyers to the platform and, more importantly, reverse the steep deceleration in GMV growth.

hillbillymedia · ‎07-23-2018

@drusalina wrote:
@hillbillymedia wrote:
@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:
@where*you*crowin wrote:
4. There is one area eBay still beats Amazon badly and is eBay's strength - used and vintage

But they are losing ground in used and vintage to other sites due to search manipulation (and other things, which is one thing ebay does well. While they're busy manipulating, more and more sellers of those goods are busy migrating to other sites, and more of their buyers are finding them at those places.

Sellers have always come and gone....and always will. And new sellers will join all the time as well.
Again it is an OPINION which does leave out some reality and facts...but he never said it was factual either. Only some here try to say it is.....he says it is his OPINION.
This is also true of all other sites...every single other site

And it also ignores FACTS like the mass edoduses that have happened in the past, and there were some big ones, where people said the same things...and all these years later ebay is still here.

So is Kmart but Wal-Mart continues to crush them.

I would rather shop at K-Mart, than Walmart. The Clothing in Kmart is much better quality, then Walmart's, cheap trashy clothing. K-Mart has the BEST Leggings and 100% Cotton Clothing. Polyester is not what you wear in hot weather, and Walmart just changed all of their internal brands and have eliminated ALL clothing that is 100% Cotton. Never bought much at Walmart for clothing anyway, except for their White Stag Brand (which Walmart bought out and have now discontinued). Kmart's clothing and shoes are 100% better then Walmart's. Their Shop Your Way program also gives out $$ (5, 10, 15, 25 and more) if you spend money in their stores and online. They had Fantastic Deals at Christmas, and I went Crazy buying at Christmas.

I agree. I would rather shop at K-Mart.

A little off topic but, we have a little store in our small town that has opened and closed several times since I have lived here in the last 20+ years. Each time it closes the same people whine "I sure wish we had a store here". Someone buys it, opens it and the same people that whined when it was closed won`t shop there. These are the same people that would drive 40+ miles 1 way to save 75 cents on a gallon of milk instead of buying from "the local little guy". I have never understood this mentality. You might have to pay a bit more but, on top of the convenience, the service is usually better and the product tends to be better.

"There`s always barber college" - Dalton - Road House

siayan · ‎07-23-2018

@baantiques wrote:
@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:
As the articles says...it is his OPINION....and he did throw in some facts which is what in part he is basing his OPINION on.
Everyone has one of those opinion things BTW.
It is also called speculations.

It is an interesting OPINION article...but no more or less so than any other.
And nothing you can use as facts...just something you may think supports your own OPINION.

Funny thing about these articles is next week his opinion could change

Every analyst article is an opinion. Every rating is an opinion. Those opinions may be based on facts, some more than others, and some may be the result of a principled analysis of available facts, but they are all just opinion. I tend not to give much weight to anything from Seeking Alpha.

That said, as an investor, I would not touch Ebay. They are profitable, but their earnings, ROE, and revenue growth trail the industry averages by significant amounts. The stock is cheap compared to other internet stocks, but it's cheap for a reason.

With eBay jumping into the collecting of money from sales I say its a BUY. May take a year or so but it should give it some upside.

____________________________________________________________________
Prov 20:14 It is naught, it is naught, saith the buyer: but when he is gone his way, then he boasteth.

bradandamber · ‎07-23-2018

Best Lne of the day.

dugoldstuff · ‎07-23-2018

> And all those other sites are also experiencing slow or no sales for some...just like ebay is.

Stats on this?

> Go look for yourself.

Usually when you make a claim, and someone questions it, you don't ask that person to search for info to prove your own claim.

retrose1 · ‎07-23-2018

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:
@futuretomorrow wrote:
@retrose1

I get your point but there's a small contradiction in your last paragraph. If one sold stuff for emergency bills they weren't going to spend it here regardless, hence putting it back into the eBay flow wasn't going to happen. eBay still loses in that particular use case beyond their fees but other sellers don't benefit.

Everything else is spot on to the letter. It's investing 101 even if sellers don't realize it. You spend money on things and places more readily that make you money, not create hardships for you at every turn a.k.a eBay.
Then please explain the millions of transactions, millionsof dollars and the growth that did actually occur...even though it was not what was projected???
That is hardly investing 101...and it is still ONLY an OPINION just as they claim it is...which you are also ignoring along with the facts

I don't know about the opinion about the so called millions of other transactions that happen on ebay - I know the FACTS about my selling history on ebay and other sites. Over the weekend I sold 1 item on ebay for $25, 7 items on another site for over $350 and a few items at a live venue I was not even at for $45. So the facts for me is that ebay is a distant third when it comes to sales that puts food on my table.

ebay used to be my first and only site I sold on, but when the fees started going up and the sales started dropping at twice the fee hike rate, I took the eggs out of one opressive basket and started spreading them around as a fall back plan. Too bad for ebay that my backup plan soon left ebay behind in the dust.

(*Bleep*)

retrose1 · ‎07-23-2018

@hillbillymedia wrote:
@futuretomorrow wrote:
@hillbillymedia

Good point. The one in my area is closing and may have already closed but I haven't been to that location in a few weeks. When I did last pop in there, the good stuff was long gone and it was clear as day (by all the signs and shelves) they were closing that location, not reorganizing.
It`s a shame. Kmart was one of the few that had the chance to compete with Wal-Mart and they are fading. Sure, there are still other competitiors but many of them are fading as well. I was rooting Kmart.

I`d love for ebay to suceed again. I just don`t see it though with the decisions they are making. Maybe they will turn it around but I don`t see it as happening if they continue to abandon their used/vintage base. I think they should embarce it again and run with it.

Back in the 90s, I watched what Target was doing and what KMart wasn't and knew that KMart was doomed. They used to be across the street from each other in our neighborhood, now KMart is gone from our city and the Target built their own 3 new locations in the high shopping districts.

I am a used and vintage seller and see ebay's complete dedication to getting a catalog up and running as a sign that ebay totally does not understand where their strength lies and how to make it successful again.

Catalog implies new, and for ebay's catalog to succeed ebay should segregate the new merchandise from the used/vintage/antique and only apply catalog to the new and leave the other categories to the old school ebay way of search. I feel that if ebay had done that a year ago, their catalog would be finished and up to date instead of a blue coming to beg for more unpaid help getting it done.

(*Bleep*)

everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures · ‎07-23-2018

@retrose1 wrote:
@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:
@futuretomorrow wrote:
@retrose1

I get your point but there's a small contradiction in your last paragraph. If one sold stuff for emergency bills they weren't going to spend it here regardless, hence putting it back into the eBay flow wasn't going to happen. eBay still loses in that particular use case beyond their fees but other sellers don't benefit.

Everything else is spot on to the letter. It's investing 101 even if sellers don't realize it. You spend money on things and places more readily that make you money, not create hardships for you at every turn a.k.a eBay.
Then please explain the millions of transactions, millionsof dollars and the growth that did actually occur...even though it was not what was projected???
That is hardly investing 101...and it is still ONLY an OPINION just as they claim it is...which you are also ignoring along with the facts
I don't know about the opinion about the so called millions of other transactions that happen on ebay - I know the FACTS about my selling history on ebay and other sites. Over the weekend I sold 1 item on ebay for $25, 7 items on another site for over $350 and a few items at a live venue I was not even at for $45. So the facts for me is that ebay is a distant third when it comes to sales that puts food on my table.

ebay used to be my first and only site I sold on, but when the fees started going up and the sales started dropping at twice the fee hike rate, I took the eggs out of one opressive basket and started spreading them around as a fall back plan. Too bad for ebay that my backup plan soon left ebay behind in the dust.

Which is something many have done and been doing since the market crash...which was quite some time ago...because things changed at that point for a lot of businesses. And again, not limted to sellers on ebay. Many had to do this on many other sites and some of those even began using ebay at that point as one of those baskets you speak of. This was one of those business decision a lot of people made without all the blame...just part of running a business.
And while you may have left ebay in your words????....you are apparently still very much here and agreeing to the terms of the site...and speaking as a seller which you are also claiming you are not a seller??? If not a buyer or a sellers, then what??? ANd how is it you are making sales over theweekend if you are not a seller and left ebay behind????
Hmmmm. There is a contradiction in there.

everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures · ‎07-23-2018

@futuretomorrow wrote:
@sharingtheland

I think they're referring to me and a few others but I've already thanked them for their time because when we cite hard data, qualitative or quantitative, it's chalked up to everyone having an opinion. Just go back and look at most of their responses for yourself and notice how many times they regard almost every response as an "opinion" and usually in caps for emphasis.

I guess my failure was in not responding with dense data sets and analytics from the tools I use versus posting it in a way everyone could wrap his or her heads around since it is, after all, a discussion board.

Just last year alone I used these "opinions" of mine to save one company $34,000/annually and another I implemented the companies first repository for a design system on the agency side. That second client is one of America's largest healthcare providers but hey, I only have opinions, no hard facts.

Which would be relevant to this if you had ebay's data which you do NOT have and using suppositions to fill in the blanks or leaving out facts that are necessry to do certain things mentioned above.
You are not the only person that has done consultaions or revamping of businesses but you want to use that to say you can make guesses on another unrelated company you have no real data on or that you were given access to...just internet rantings and such and bits and pieces of statistics on the net etc
Unfortunately there is no relevance to this or ebay at all.

grayirongolf · ‎07-23-2018

When Rates Rise, Savings Is Wise. When Rates Fall, Risk It All... Its no longer a Buyers Marker, Its a Time of Savings.

& you can take that Too The Bank.

everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures · ‎07-23-2018

@grayirongolf wrote:
When Rates Rise, Savings Is Wise. When Rates Fall, Risk It All... Its no longer a Buyers Marker, Its a Time of Savings.
& you can take that Too The Bank.

Take some time to read the consumer spending reports over the last couple years and you will see consumer spending is up and has been for some time. Again they are just spending on differnt things than they were before.
There are sellers that do follow this as it is part of what effects our businesses.

And BTW..the whole market crash proves that old adage wrong in today's times and market.

hioctane62 · ‎07-23-2018

Millennials are pushing back against the stereotype that their money management skills are lacking, as 16% now have savings of $100,000 or more, double the amount of young people who had socked away that much in 2015, according to a new Bank of America survey.

The perception that Millennials — Americans between the ages of 23 and 37 — lack savvy when it comes to saving for retirement, budgeting and setting up and sticking to a financial plan is showing signs of being outdated, noted the survey, made available exclusively to USA TODAY.

Despite many of these young Americans coming of age a decade ago during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and despite being saddled with high student loan debt, Millennials appear to be getting their financial lives in order and taking money matters more seriously.

Sixteen percent say they have $100,000 or more in savings, up from 8% in 2015. And nearly half (47%) have $15,000 socked away, up from 33% in 2015.

"Despite stereotypes of Millennials as being foolish with money and not long-term planners," they are actually behaving "quite responsibly" when it comes to money, says Andrew Plepler, global head of environmental, social and governance at Bank of America, summarizing the findings of the bank's 2018 Better Money Habits Millennial Report released Tuesday. "They deserve more credit. Millennials are actually doing better than you — and they — might think."

About two of three (63%) of Millennials surveyed say they "are saving," which is in line with 64% of Generation X but shy of 75% of Baby Boomers who set money aside.

Those better habits are translating into more sizable account balances — and more financial security.

About 60% say they "feel financially secure."

"Their financial habits have become more disciplined," Plepler says. "They've built it into their lifestyles."

Aside from saving for an emergency, which 64% said was a "top priority," half (49%) said saving for retirement and a third (33%) said saving to buy a house were their top savings goals.

More importantly, 54% of Millennials say they have a budget, with nearly three of four (73%) saying they stick to the budget each month. And another 57% say they have a "savings goal," which is higher than the 42% of Gen Xers and Boomers who say they are saving with a goal in mind.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/01/23/millennials-1-6-now-have-100-000-socked-away/1053803...

I cited my source. Where's yours?

grayirongolf · ‎07-23-2018

You are correct, they are spending. Consumers are paying back the money from all the fluff they purchased this past decade.

retrose1 · ‎07-23-2018

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:

And while you may have left ebay in your words????....you are apparently still very much here and agreeing to the terms of the site...and speaking as a seller which you are also claiming you are not a seller??? If not a buyer or a sellers, then what??? ANd how is it you are making sales over theweekend if you are not a seller and left ebay behind????
Hmmmm. There is a contradiction in there.

I never said I left ebay I have often said that I moved my entire money making genre (vintage) off ebay to other areas. That I moved my eggs to other baskets, not just ebay. Now ebay only gets what can not be listed on other sites and I will often hold an item for a year or more to list someplace else rather than risk it on ebay.

When a horse leaves the other horses behind in the dust, those horses are still in the race - they are just losing, badly. I still list on ebay, it's just ebay can't compete anymore.

And your attempt to divert attention from my facts conveniently overlooked the inarguable fact that for me in a 3 day period, ebay came in last and other sites did better and had more sales that ebay did. This fact has been a constant for me for the past 5 years now.

(*Bleep*)

everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures · ‎07-23-2018

@hioctane62 wrote:
Millennials are pushing back against the stereotype that their money management skills are lacking, as 16% now have savings of $100,000 or more, double the amount of young people who had socked away that much in 2015, according to a new Bank of America survey.

The perception that Millennials — Americans between the ages of 23 and 37 — lack savvy when it comes to saving for retirement, budgeting and setting up and sticking to a financial plan is showing signs of being outdated, noted the survey, made available exclusively to USA TODAY.

Despite many of these young Americans coming of age a decade ago during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and despite being saddled with high student loan debt, Millennials appear to be getting their financial lives in order and taking money matters more seriously.

Sixteen percent say they have $100,000 or more in savings, up from 8% in 2015. And nearly half (47%) have $15,000 socked away, up from 33% in 2015.

"Despite stereotypes of Millennials as being foolish with money and not long-term planners," they are actually behaving "quite responsibly" when it comes to money, says Andrew Plepler, global head of environmental, social and governance at Bank of America, summarizing the findings of the bank's 2018 Better Money Habits Millennial Report released Tuesday. "They deserve more credit. Millennials are actually doing better than you — and they — might think."

About two of three (63%) of Millennials surveyed say they "are saving," which is in line with 64% of Generation X but shy of 75% of Baby Boomers who set money aside.

Those better habits are translating into more sizable account balances — and more financial security.
About 60% say they "feel financially secure."

"Their financial habits have become more disciplined," Plepler says. "They've built it into their lifestyles."
Aside from saving for an emergency, which 64% said was a "top priority," half (49%) said saving for retirement and a third (33%) said saving to buy a house were their top savings goals.

More importantly, 54% of Millennials say they have a budget, with nearly three of four (73%) saying they stick to the budget each month. And another 57% say they have a "savings goal," which is higher than the 42% of Gen Xers and Boomers who say they are saving with a goal in mind.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/01/23/millennials-1-6-now-have-100-000-socked-away/1053803...

I cited my source. Where's yours?

No one claimed they didn't have money management skills or that some weren't saving some money...so not sure what point you are trying to make is other than trying to prove something that was never said or moving the goal post a bit. They are still spending too money just not on what they used to spend money on...and overall consumer spending has still risen over the last couple years.
Again...you should read the consumer spending reports instead.