01-28-2020 04:37 PM
01-28-2020 11:28 PM
The GMV in the USA was down 8%. Our dashboard says women's clothing market sales is down more than 10%, this being one of the largest categories in product sold and a life necessity. The item specifics change in October 2019 still has fundamental issues yet they've closed the book on it. Men's Polos category still uses the old "Size (Men's)" field, which proves the system is held together by glue.
The most disturbing thing about today's news...What are they doing to better their core product? I do not think they can both compete with alternative marketplaces in terms of seller value and also increase revenue? They sold stubhub for a large profit, but instead of investing it into improving the platform? They spend the entire amount in stock buyback to increase shareholder value and increase dividend. Maybe that is the right choice for the stock price so it doesn't crater but it does not fix a continuing decline in sales. Their only comment really on their forward plan basically sounds like "keep on keeping on". But what else can an interim CEO say.
Their biggest success? Promoted Listings, which capitalizes on declining GMV by having sellers increase their spend in hopes to recover their lost sales volume. In some regards it's a profit center that bets against the sales volume. Promoted Listings are a net negative to the platform. Every search result has the top row "Sponsored", which a large percentage of people ignore to ad blindness and that is now the only visibility you have to buyers if you participate. Rarely is the sponsored listings the best option for the buyer. I'm really hoping that investors realize they are sacrificing the core platform for revenue today. If that methodology is still putting eBay in the negative, well then the Promoted Listing revenue will not keep pace with the declining GMV. I don't know how this cannot be addressed by the end of this year.
Sales Tax certainly played a role in this decline, but instead of ideas to counteract it knowing it was happening it feels like the company blames the entire loss on it. We shall see if all the other marketplaces agree.
01-28-2020 11:35 PM
eBay's Q4 2019 earnings call transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/01/29/ebay-inc-ebay-q4-2019-earnings-call-transc...
01-28-2020 11:51 PM
Is it really thought that influential investors/shareholders aren't aware of the sacrifice of the platform for revenue today? Elliott and Starboard Value? Those with members on the BOD? Does anyone think that they didn't know what was going to happen - if they had anything to say - coming into the game? The initial statement vs the unfolding of events seems to be some indication of the route the program has been meant to take, I would think. Of course, this is all merely observations of an inexperienced lurker.
01-29-2020 06:14 AM
Interesting read. This is what I got from it.
Bottom line is that the only way they can prop up the EPS and therefore the share price is through stock buybacks. Profits don't matter - it's all about EPS.
Sellers are being fleeced by additional fees for promoted listings to pay dividends to stockholders.
It also seems that eBay has cut their marketing efforts also to bolster EPS while expecting sellers to pay more for less exposure.
They blame the decline in the US marketplace primarily on the internet sales tax despite the fact that it really had little impact until October, and many online competitors were similarly affected. Yet, they ignore shipping inreases.
They don't seem to understand that the US site has been negatively impacted by the inclusion of Asian sellers making for an uneven playing field.
As one analyst put it eBay is a melting ice cube.....
01-29-2020 07:37 AM
A melting ice cube, with fewer sellers & fewer buyers, is what the future holds.
01-29-2020 08:51 AM
Ebay wants to increase their margin expansion or in other words raise fees on listings. Too bad for you, Ebay. I will not use promoted listings.
01-29-2020 09:26 AM - edited 01-29-2020 09:28 AM
@hioctane62 wrote:Just think how bad the numbers would be if eBay actually CARED about controlling scamming buyers.
The numbers aren't a surprise to those of us who are in the business of selling on eBay daily.
As you say, it would be much better if they controlled scamming buyers.
Or had fair return policies/seller metric systems in general.
Or had policies that actually supported TRS/sellers who did their job well.
Or gave sellers incentive for putting in extra work to sell on eBay.
Or didn't turn every single feature they could in to a profit line.
Or favor China sellers over US sellers in the US marketplace.
Or passed down their actual shipping discounts rather than only giving them to China/their fulfillment system.
Or fixed ANY of the technical issues where many of them have persisted from 6 months-2 years+. Including some that have a MAJOR effect on visibility, with the people who feel the effects of this tech issue can lose well over 30-50% visibility.
Or the sponsorship system that has wreaked havoc to the search engine, and caused eBay's prices to go up for customers, which means eBay is no longer appealing ahead of competing marketplaces as eBay doesn't have any other areas they can out-perform the competition.
The list can go on and on, there's MANY actions eBay could take to stop the bleeding. But that would require for them to recognize that their change of direction/policies that started in Q1 2018 was where their growth stopped and the decline started. Meanwhile, the further they go in this new direction, the more they decline.
No, eBay. This drop is not happening because of "sales tax", if it was then all the other marketplaces would be feeling the burn. And the marketing budget is the least of the problems, because the marketing budget is only for off-eBay traffic. The problems still persist even if we look at eBay's own traffic only.
EBay, for the sake of the marketplace, and all of us sellers, PLEASE open your eyes and realize that your decisions since Q1 2018 are the problem. If you really need evidence of this, I would be glad to give a presentation.
01-29-2020 10:06 AM
Definitely a melting ice cube. Stock buy backs to prop up the EPS, and charging higher prices on shrinking volumes is a short term hail Mary pass at best. Etsy has been good to me this year. eBay I have reserved for sales of tools mostly, but even that has become very anemic. The stock performance has been abysmal at best.
01-29-2020 10:37 AM
01-29-2020 10:58 AM - edited 01-29-2020 11:01 AM
@kathieskorner wrote:Interesting read. This is what I got from it.
Bottom line is that the only way they can prop up the EPS and therefore the share price is through stock buybacks. Profits don't matter - it's all about EPS.
Sellers are being fleeced by additional fees for promoted listings to pay dividends to stockholders.
It also seems that eBay has cut their marketing efforts also to bolster EPS while expecting sellers to pay more for less exposure.
They blame the decline in the US marketplace primarily on the internet sales tax despite the fact that it really had little impact until October, and many online competitors were similarly affected. Yet, they ignore shipping inreases.
They don't seem to understand that the US site has been negatively impacted by the inclusion of Asian sellers making for an uneven playing field.
As one analyst put it eBay is a melting ice cube.....
I am certainly in agreement about the ever-increasing fees on eBay - it makes one feel like a hamster in a treadmill, or a cat trying to catch its own tail. The more I work on adding new listings, the less results I can see. With just 60 listings early December, I sold more than I am now, with 210, and the free lising promos stopped after it became obvious that I am not inclined to pay for extra exposure through PROMOs or relisting fees on the FP items.
As for Etsy: I don't know, but have heard they are copying every single thing that is causing eBay trouble, because their CEO used to work at eBay - so I am not too enthusuastic to list there. Both of these companies introduced "Promo" for extra fees to be paid by sellers, which actually, do not make a difference for many sellers, even if they decide to pay it. And as I heard, Etsy is worse than eBay, because they (Etsy) had glitch after glitch for example, with payments - by not releasing their sellers' money as scheduled, but not once do they publicly say, "Sorry." Then, you are also right on that, they both allowed certain sellers who have nothing but **bleep** or fake products, en masse; and reporting those sellers leads to nothing being done to remedy the situation.
Not counting the MEGA sellers, most eBay sellers are Mom and Pop businesses that are into this to pay medical bills, utilities, home repair and the occassional emergency. To ask them to pay more and more - and then give them less and less exposure in search that is saturated in low quality junk is a double whammy and most sellers would rather leave than pay more, or use Craigslist and the many cell phone apps, or Facebook, instead.
What made eBay such a huge success in the beginning?
(1) Easy and reliable software (not currently present, see the many posts about glitches).
(2) Personal communications (not encouraged now, since we were told to cut down on using the eBay messaging system by previous CEOs, like contacting a buyer on a shipped order might automatically count against the seller, even if it was only about sharing the information that the item was shipped. Makes one wonder, why is COMMUNICATION still a part of the feedback rating?).
(3) eBay's refusal to realize who its real customers are (hint: we sellers pay all the bills, through Final Value Fees on sales and other fees)
(4) Introducing AI into the search technology - a HUGE HUGE error at both eBay and other platforms. Search should be generic so buyers can find and view ALL OPTIONS, not just what is left after an artificial brain deems those items "worthy" of being exhibited for that particular buyer.
(5) Policies: Constantly changing and getting worse, with every Seller Update. Many sellers feel they are in a penitentiary institute. Psychologically, I often wonder how the people who invented these policies would feel like if the same strict rules were implemented towards them, in their daily job or personal life.
(6) The DEFECT system that is totally unjust and disproportionately penalizes small sellers. Example: I have, many months ago, accidentally sold an item that I did not realize sold earlier. I am not even sure it was me who relisted it, or the usual software error, but let's just assume, I made a simple human error. I have apologized to the buyer and all was fine. Yet, I received one (1) DEFECT to my account, and this is going to stay until the last day of a 12 months period. Seriously? If eBay execs would get a DEFECT for every single glitch and error they make in judgement or the software does, which they are supposed to approve and monitor - how would they feel like, for 12 months getting their pay deducted?
(7) The reducing of TRS and TRS+ benefits
(8) The reducing of eBay bucks earnings for buyers
(9) Literally impossible to reach TRS or TRS+ status now, after having lost it, because the rule is to have at least 100 sales and as soon as your sales pick up - as in my case, approx. 30 since I have returned to listing here in December - an invisible "hand" makes sure your items will not enjoy good search placement at all, so reaching this 100 number becomes close to impossible. And if you do, then you might still not become TRS again, because of issues outside your control (e.g. USPS or other carrier messing up the delivery).
(10) If you successfully jumped over all of these hurdles, then you might get a false claim of Item not as described - and wham! You are out, get your money confiscated from PayPal or whatever payment method you have (for those using Managed Payment, your pos. balance will go into the negative) or the payment from the buyer will be "pending" forever - and even if it was not you who was dishonest.
I could go on and on, but the point is, you are correct.
I think eBay needs to turn back the wheel and step back in time, to when Pierre created it as a highly successful and beloved company, popular with buyers and sellers alike. The first person who gets IT, will manage to turn around this company. But for this to happen, some who stubbornly insist on melking sellers instead of enticing them all to return to listing here, need to seriously think about what their goal is, short-term and long-term. Then create some charts of comparison, for all major aspects of selling and buying, listing in the left column how that aspect looked like in 1998 - and how it looks like today. In some cases, change was in fact necessary - but perhaps they would find some (many) other areas where the changes only made things worse, for eBay as a company, and for its sellers (who also buy here, ya know IF they make decent money as a seller).
This whole scenario reminds me of a children's story that I still think about, even though no longer a child, the story of the big round tasty cheese - and the two bear-cubs. The cubs found this big cheese one day, then rolled down the hillside meadow and arrived at the bottom. With nothing else to do to play, and the cheese having a temptind scent, they thought they will eat it. The problem came when they did not know how to break it up to be eaten,so they have enlisted the help of a big bear. The big bear broke the cheese into two halves - which were not equal in size. So, while the cubs were looking on salivating, the big bear suggested to take a bite of the half that was larger than the other "half." But now, this half that he just trimmed a bit, became smaller than the other. So he took another bite, this time from the other "half" of the cheese. Needless to say, before the bear cubs could figure out what was going on, the cheese was all gone, eaten by the big bear. The name of the two cubs is BUYERS and SELLERS. One could guess what the name of big bear is.
PW
01-29-2020 11:15 AM
01-29-2020 11:24 AM - edited 01-29-2020 11:26 AM
@1944agv wrote:
Ebay collects a 9% sales tax where I live on top of the shipping cost. Puts a damper on buying stuff, especially high priced items. Sales tax + Shipping cost = Less buyers on Ebay.
Well, tax is collected on all marketplaces. If eBay still had policies that kept their prices low, we would still be cheaper than the competitors.
But eBay's policies encourage things like sponsorships, and sponsored listings aren't exactly something that people have done because of the huge increases in profits they're seeing, rather they are attempting sponsored listings out of necessity. (Besides the fact that using Sponsored Listings is the #1 recommendation they give on the phone lines if a seller reports issues).
Regarding shipping fees, this is also a problem that has a solution. EBay has better rates, but they aren't offering them to all sellers, only select ones.
It's not reasonable to blame taxes and shipping, because these things affect every market, and eBay is the only major market declining in Q4 rather than growing. The problem itself is total pricing going up IN ADDITION to taxes and shipping..
The problem has a solution. EBay could, and if they were informed about eCommerce, should still be marketing themselves based on cheaper prices than competitors; this has been the reason people came to eBay ahead of competitors in the past. But they threw away this advantage, and now we do not offer any advantages over the competition.
Believing it's tax and shipping is honestly a trap that eBay hopes we fall in to, but it doesn't follow any logic.
TLDR: Since sales tax and shipping are price increases that every marketplace faces equally, the problem isn't that, as much as eBay's policies have led to costs where eBay's pricing is no longer cheaper than the competition. Why would customers pay more, or even just as much as competitors, when eBay's offerings do not match the competitors?
01-29-2020 11:26 AM - edited 01-29-2020 11:29 AM
@zamo-zuan wrote:
@hioctane62 wrote:Just think how bad the numbers would be if eBay actually CARED about controlling scamming buyers.
The numbers aren't a surprise to those of us who are in the business of selling on eBay daily.
As you say, it would be much better if they controlled scamming buyers.
Or had fair return policies/seller metric systems in general.
Or had policies that actually supported TRS/sellers who did their job well.
Or gave sellers incentive for putting in extra work to sell on eBay.
Or didn't turn every single feature they could in to a profit line.
Or favor China sellers over US sellers in the US marketplace.
Or passed down their actual shipping discounts rather than only giving them to China/their fulfillment system.
Or fixed ANY of the technical issues where many of them have persisted from 6 months-2 years+. Including some that have a MAJOR effect on visibility, with the people who feel the effects of this tech issue can lose well over 30-50% visibility.
Or the sponsorship system that has wreaked havoc to the search engine, and caused eBay's prices to go up for customers, which means eBay is no longer appealing ahead of competing marketplaces as eBay doesn't have any other areas they can out-perform the competition.
The list can go on and on, there's MANY actions eBay could take to stop the bleeding. But that would require for them to recognize that their change of direction/policies that started in Q1 2018 was where their growth stopped and the decline started. Meanwhile, the further they go in this new direction, the more they decline.
No, eBay. This drop is not happening because of "sales tax", if it was then all the other marketplaces would be feeling the burn. And the marketing budget is the least of the problems, because the marketing budget is only for off-eBay traffic. The problems still persist even if we look at eBay's own traffic only.
EBay, for the sake of the marketplace, and all of us sellers, PLEASE open your eyes and realize that your decisions since Q1 2018 are the problem. If you really need evidence of this, I would be glad to give a presentation.
Personally, I would take your presentation quite seriously.
Unfortunately, since April 2008- 12 years now- eBay's message to sellers has been loud and clear:
YOU. ARE. MEANINGLESS. Other than as resource to be abused, bled and exploited mercilessly, that is.
Foolhardy or not, that's the company philosophy. Two days ago marked my 20th anniversary on eBay with this ID- (I actually go back to late '97 on my previous one)- and I have to say I am just in AWE of the opportunities and incredible goodwill that eBay has spent the last 12 to 15 years tinkling away. Twenty years ago eBay was universally viewed with a positive excitement that's never been seen by any merchant before or since.
What built it was eBay's partnership with the eBay Community of "Trading Partners" that today has been devolved by eBay into the Us v. Them death match of "Buyers" and "sellers" in order to sell "protection".
Gee, sounds like Cosa Nostra, doesn't it?
Early eBay was a very successful and unique coupling of what later became known as social media with ecommerce. Heck, I even remember closing the sale on quite a few expensive collectibles in my B&M booth by suggesting I list it on eBay for the buyer to buy HERE so they could leave feedback for all the world to see!
Now we see the chickens coming home to roost after a decade plus of bad anti- seller policies and even worse site changes and micromanagement in the 2019 GMV figures. eBay's goose is cooked. The ONLY way they can continue to increase revenue is by fleecing you.
Other than exploiting sellers, this marketplace has never had a plan other that flinging dung against a wall to see what sticks- or what sellers are willing to eat. Exploit, exploit, exploit- and all in bad faith. If it were in GOOD faith policies would actually mean something. Instead, policies seem to be decided on a case by case basis to maximize return for eBay at cost to their paying customers- sellers.
This has all been incredibly stupid and incredibly sad. Unfortunately it's now past the point of any going back.
01-29-2020 11:32 AM
General comment
I'm not surprised at the declining profits - in a great way ebay is 'on hold' due to loss of management and a kind of drifting state (the change in notification colour and the "new" but ancient-looking feedback page looks like busywork, like dusting desks and rearranging the shelves). Until a new CEO is chosen to replace the current placeholder, or the placeholder is confirmed as CEO and can move forward, there won't be much real change, but any future innovations have to work in the context of etailing as it is now, not what it was 15+ years ago (a time when I recall people here were also complaining about the management and poor sales) which is several generations in etailing land. Unfortunately, a great deal depends on the new leadership, someone who looks towards the future and NOT the past, and it needs to be someone with a lot more vision than the usual candidate from Rent-a-CEO, Inc.
There's no going back in any case - there has been too much change overall in ecommerce in general - it's been a long time since eBay was the new and exciting thing.
01-29-2020 11:44 AM
This was my take away from the eBay Financials on eBay Inc.
Cash on hand, income, and GMV significantly decreased.
Income 2019 (4th Quarter): 558 Million
Income 2018 (4th Quarter): 763 Million
Income 2019 (Year): 1,792 Million
Income 2018 (Year): 2,528 Million
Cash (2019): 975 Million
Cash (2018): 2,202 Million
GMV (2019): 21,966 Million
GMV (2018): 23,231 Million
And ... the Quarterly Dividend increased 14.3% to $0.16/share