EBay's profits fell 29 percent in 2019 compared to the year before...

[forecastledistributors]

That should cheer up the stockholders. 🙂

[gwzcomps]

I'm not shocked considering the horrible 4th quarter I had last year. Also worst December I have had in the last 5 years.

[luckythewinner]

Re: EBay's profits fell 29 percent in 2019 compared to the year before...

eBay's net profits mean nothing to me as a seller, nor does the stock price.

What matters to me is whether buyers are still buying here.

FY 2019 gross merchandise volume was down 5% over FY 2018.

Q4 2019 gross merchandise volume was down 5% over Q4 2018.

Treading water since Q1.

[happycamperutah]

Wow! That's shocking. I've just joined ebay and I'm thinking about selling a few things I have around the house. Is there a problem with ebay then?

[orangehound]

Overall sales on eBay were down 4% (FX Neutral) when comparing 4th quarter 2018 with 4th quarter 2019.

That's not the trend that anyone wants to see ... seems like GMV has been going down for 4 quarters straight.

[hioctane62]

Just think how bad the numbers would be if eBay actually CARED about controlling scamming buyers.

[chapeau-noir]

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@happycamperutah wrote:

Wow! That's shocking. I've just joined ebay and I'm thinking about selling a few things I have around the house. Is there a problem with ebay then?

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Go ahead and list!  Profits are down for a lot of reasons. I don't advocate the head in the sand approach, but generally not everything is affected equally.

[gracieallen01]

Well, as Lasarus Long says, "Of course the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you--if you don't play, you can't win."  'Notebooks of Lasarus Long', by Robt. Heinlein

[datemike1]

Spoiler

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
-Wayne Gretzky 
-Michael Scott

[gracieallen01]

SORRY!  That should be Lazarus Long.  Sincere apologies to both Mr. Long and Mr. Heinlein!

[gramophone-georg]

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@luckythewinner wrote:

Re: EBay's profits fell 29 percent in 2019 compared to the year before...

eBay's net profits mean nothing to me as a seller, nor does the stock price.

What matters to me is whether buyers are still buying here.

FY 2019 gross merchandise volume was down 5% over FY 2018.

Q4 2019 gross merchandise volume was down 5% over Q4 2018.

Treading water since Q1.

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Yup... what were Amazon and Etsy's increases? Stay tuned- Amazon announces Thursday.

https://investorplace.com/2019/12/as-etsy-heads-into-2020-investors-wonder-if-its-a-40-or-70-stock/

Looks like Etsy is also going to blow eBay out of the water.

This is way worse than I thought...

[luckythewinner]

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@orangehound wrote:

seems like GMV has been going down for 4 quarters straight.

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You have to carefully examine what those numbers mean.

GMV in Q1 2019 was 1% below Q1 2018. 

GMV in Q2 2019 was 5% below Q2 2018. 

GMV in Q3 2019 was 5% below Q3 2018. 

GMV in Q4 2019 was 5% below Q4 2018. 

But that does not mean GMV has been dropping every quarter!

It means that GMV dropped by 5% from Q1 to Q2, and then stayed essentially flat for the rest of the year. 

The graph looks line this: 

Not like this: 

[luckythewinner]

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@gramophone-georg wrote:

Looks like Etsy is also going to blow eBay out of the water.

Etsy's GMV for 2018 was $3.965 billion. 

Etsy's GMV for 2019 looks like it will be around $4.725 billion. 

eBay's GMV for 2018 was $89.8 billion. 

eBay's GMV for 2019 was $85.5 billion. 

Etsy's growth is certainly blowing eBay out of the water. But they are still moving just 5.5% of the merchandise that eBay moves. 

[luckythewinner]

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@luckythewinner wrote:

Etsy's growth is certainly blowing eBay out of the water. But they are still moving just 5.5% of the merchandise that eBay moves. 

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If Etsy can continues to grow at 19% per year  and eBay continues to shrink at 5% per year, then Etsy will definitely overtake eBay in GMV ... in the year 2034. 

[gramophone-georg]

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@luckythewinner wrote:

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@gramophone-georg wrote:

Looks like Etsy is also going to blow eBay out of the water.

Etsy's GMV for 2018 was $3.965 billion. 

Etsy's GMV for 2019 looks like it will be around $4.725 billion. 

eBay's GMV for 2018 was $89.8 billion. 

eBay's GMV for 2019 was $85.5 billion. 

Etsy's growth is certainly blowing eBay out of the water. But they are still moving just 5.5% of the merchandise that eBay moves. 

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Growth is exactly what I am talking about.