@rktoyandhobby wrote:
It has been a pretty slow year for me too. eBay is slow, sure, but I had cut out one of my spring shows because it had gotten way too expensive. They went from one day to two days, doubling table costs and adding lodging costs, but neither my revenue nor profit increased by anything close. I gave it a shot for two previous shows and quit. So I was down to one local show and I sold $20 on a $50 table. Ouch.
Anyway, toys have been in a really bad spot for a few years. I buy most of my inventory from retail sales these days. It's cheaper than buying from a distributor, with none of the downsides! No lock-in, no restock fees, no damaged goods, no lousy assortments, no shipping fees, no misinformation, no delays. Sure, there's tax, because nobody has their act together on resale exemptions, but it's a small price to pay.
But...since this is the real stores selling stuff cheap, it means I've got to sit on it to be able to make retail. But...I was already doing that, so what's the difference?
The situation with toys is weird. Some might say it's a "saturated market" but that's not quite true. Collectors are noisy about how they can't find anything in stores. Hell, I can't find much in stores. But here's the thing. Distribution there is like distribution here ten years ago. Back then, we were very slow to receive waves and sometimes missed them. I learned to jump on stuff when I saw it because I wouldn't have another chance. Now it's more like waiting for cargo to wash up on shore. Another lower layer of distribution hell.
Unfortunately, not having been conditioned by the experience, these people think they can still just wait and pick stuff up on deep discount months later. They're finding out it doesn't work that way. And they're angry, posting manifestos about the evils of scalping, because they just don't see what's really happening. They'll learn or they'll continue paying aftermarket premiums.
Anyway, I've scheduled more local shows for the second half of the year, so hopefully that'll pull my numbers up. Shows have been, on a revenue basis, consistently better than eBay. I have sold more over a weekend sometimes than in six months on eBay. The problem has been skyrocketing rent. It's no worse than eBay, except that it's unconditional. eBay's greed, on the other hand, chokes off sales so they take their high fees out of a trickle of sales, which would be self correcting if they had a clue.
Well one thing that doesn't lie is the "Top Seller Market Share". We've observed multiple categories go from 40% to around 25%. This is extremely troubling.
Considering there's a correlation with more than one category, it seems this is intentional.
Some might say this is a good thing as it gives the impression that other sellers are getting sales, but to be clear, this is a very problematic warning. As the top sellers are basically a metric of the "most successful seller" you could be on eBay. If top sellers are dropping, then the potential for everyone in the category is dropping too.
Furthermore, it's also a sign that no matter what they do, sellers can no longer do anything to "stand out" from the crowd. Clear paths to "healthy competition" are core for any "healthy marketplace". If the most capable sellers on eBay can't even stand out from the crowd, what chance does anyone have?
Finally, the question is "where is the traffic going". If top sellers are dropping, and smaller sellers (as you can see reported on this forum) are dropping, where exactly are the sales going...? From any research we can do (with Terapeak/etc), it seems the only to be making out well are new sellers or sellers with poorer metrics. AKA, a lack of quality control.
Without things like quality control, or a path to healthy competition, what are sellers supposed to do if they want to put in work to become a top seller on eBay...?
Right now it's frustrating because many sellers are seeing drops, and there's no path to improvement. Not even any advice or actionable suggestions from Senior Managers...
