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Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

I recently posted about slow sales on Ebay and how I believe problems with Ebay's site are at least partially responsible for subpar sales. While I wholeheartedly believe this to be true, I also feel like something is up with the economy. Within my circle of friends and acquaintances, I see a lot of people either barely holding their own or struggling with finances. When times are good, I typically see people doing remodels, buying big ticket items and going on vacations. I see very little of these activities going on in my community. Is it my imagination or just a local thing, or are you seeing the same. Just wanted to get the perspectives of the Ebay community throughout the U.S. Thanks!

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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

I am not a rich man by any means. Raised my family in the nineties took them on vacation every year, some times twice and retired a few years ago. Never had a high paying job. Always worked my job and held a second job even if that second job was this site. I now live on social security and the little bit of money I make with my part time restoration business. I go all the places that the rest of my retired friends go to and have not touched my IRA yet.

A few years back when I rolled my 401K into a IRA the financial advisors told me that that they had never met any one like me  and asked me how I did it. Easy reply. First, worked my fingers to the bone. Second, I cut my credit cards up thirty five years ago. Third, I paid off every thing I owned decades ago, house, cars, boats, every thing. Only borrowed money for a couple of car loans. Paid them off promptly. Basically I have lived within my means.

 

Now I watch my younger friends struggle. These young people are making upwards of eighty thousand dollars a year! They know my situation and ask me how I do it. My reply to them, It's not about how much you make. it's about life choices. Live within your means and fight the urge to keep up with the Jones'!

 

It's disappointing to me to see people who hate Trump so bad that they actually root for a recession.

CNN is the biggest spreader of **bleep** that there ever was. Glad to see that they have been held accountable for this one incident and I hope others that have been wronged my the media mob follow suit.

Is it my imagination or has CNN become a little more truthful since they got sued for two hundred and fifty million?

As far as the 2008 collapse, I saw it coming and moved my 401K to a trust and held the bleeding to a minimum. A lot of people did not and lost it all.

The collapse was actually caused by the housing market when Clinton thought that owning  house was for every one. When a borrower didn't meet the criteria for home ownership Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac fudged the numbers so they could qualify. When these borrowers defaulted on those loans the wheels came off the bus. Just happened to be on George Bush's' watch.

Message 61 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

The fundamentals of the boom/bust economy have not changed, so to think the cycle will magically stop is foolish. Consumer debt is a trillion higher than it was right before crash. The top 10% now hold 70% of the wealth. 50% of housing has surpassed bubble levels. There was no offset effect from the Trump tax cuts, that was simply added to deficit spending. Historically, we head into a recession with higher interest rates, lower to stimulate the economy, and raise to curb inflation as things boom. This time, we will be going in without that buffer. In my opinion, this is the end result of Keynesian economic theory dictating fiscal policy, and things could get real ugly this time around. Just my opinion, and I hope I'm wrong, God knows I've been wrong before, but I don't see this leading to anything but disaster. 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shrinking-influence-of-central-banks-ends-decades-of-business-as-usual-...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-richest-10-of-households-now-represent-70-of-all-us-wealth-201...

https://www.newsweek.com/us-federal-deficit-skyrockets-trump-tax-cuts-blamed-defense-spending-gap-re...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/half-of-us-homes-are-now-more-valuable-than-before-the-real-estate...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-debt-is-now-breaching-levels-last-reached-during-the-2...

Message 62 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones


@turquoisetulips wrote:

. CNN is the biggest culprit of all these fears.  collections 

 

Yes but let's hope with the fact that CNN   just lost a lawsuit for lying and now must pay millions of dollars in damages  will send out a clear message to all other forms of media   that if you continue to report garbage  you WILL be held accountable . Tulips 


Let's hope so.  Fox "News" should pay good attention.

Message 63 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

One day our feeble power grid will fail. It won't take much for that to happen, either - a couple of unfortunate lightning strikes in the right places, a massive equipment failure somewhere, or a CME.   Our grid is horribly antiquated and in bad condition, even in the best of areas.  The JIT supply chain is another huge problem. One break in the chain and you'll have people rioting because they can't get their new phones...or their new Nikes...or their FOOD. 

 

This is not a problem caused by the Trump administration, or the Obama administration. It's been happening for decades as the government and the companies involved have turned a blind eye to the issues. Meanwhile, our consumerbot society carries merrily along, spending money they don't have for stuff they don't need.

 

How many people are prepared to go months without power, water or food? Most people can't even go a week without having to go to the grocery store. Y'all see what it's like when a hurricane or snowstorm is forecast? Hordes of people clearing out the store shelves for basics they should have already had on hand.

 

Recession? Yeah, that's the least of my worries.

 

Oh, and news? Forget FOX, forget CNN, forget all those mainstream places. Read it from Reuters, or don't read it at all.

The easier you are to offend the easier you are to control.


We seem to be getting closer and closer to a situation where nobody is responsible for what they did but we are all responsible for what somebody else did. - Thomas Sowell
Message 64 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

What % of the population do you think cares if the stock market is doing well?  Economy is not great.  Those without $ are falling more & more in debt.  Rich get richer; poor get poorer; middle class is shrinking.  Greed rules the world.

Message 65 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

He's a proven liar supported by video and audio. Per CNN 2,700 lies in 2019 alone - goldrushfinds





"It's hard to believe there are still people who trust anything reported by CNN . They just lost a major lawsuit for reporting a phony story about that Sandman kid . CNN is losing viewers by the millions because of their penchant for reporting lies . The economy is fine as reported by all top economists . The POTUS just signed a major trade deal with China today and the USMCA will go into effect soon which will help the farmers , protect our intellectual properties and protect and add even more jobs . Climate change is a global problem and so it will take a global effort to make any impact at all . The U.S isn't the major contributing factor with pollution that's causing the problems . Other nations are much much worse . Americans could give up their oil use , their TV , computers ,cars , homes etc and just sit in the dirt for the next 100 years and it would have zero effect in improving the climate change problem. None of those climate problems began with Trump and everyone knows that . Tulips"


To even try to defend Trump as not being a serial liar is ludacris. He lies many, many, many times a day which can be verified by just pulling up previous video of him making provably false statements. His penchant for lying is not even a question worth discussing. As far as not trusting CNN, it was rated more accurate than Fox in a recent U.S. poll of adults, along with studies done by Politifact and Marketwatch. Fox consistently gets just about the lowest rating everywhere in terms of bias/accuracy. If you watch Fox, you are being badly misled. I am fine with people having their own opinions of Trump's presidency, but let's accept facts as facts. We must separate opinion from fact and make our decisions based on those facts. Bye the way, NPR, Time, the NY Times, the Washington Post, Bloomberg and NBC (not MSNBC) were deemed the most unbiased/accurate.
Message 66 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

"Wow! Until I read this thread, I had no idea so many Economic PhDs doubled as Ebay sellers. Who needs CNBC when we have this forum?"

You do know, I have the ability to read opinions of experts and to study economic history. Additionally, you have no idea of the background of any particular Ebay seller. You are making broad assumptions, with little knowledge.

Message 67 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

I'm not an economic PhD, but I do watch CNBC every weekday morning as they tend to offer differing views of all things economic.  I am also among those that lived below my means my entire adult life and have no debt so I can live comfortably on my social security check and small pension.   My required IRA withdrawal goes to charity.

 

I don't worry about a recession,  but I do worry about the electrical grid and other infrastructure that has not been maintained.  I worry about the environment - mainly because of the carelessness of humans - not so much because of fossil fuels.  I am concerned about our education system that focuses far too much on pieces of paper and not enough on preparing young people for life in the real world.  

 

I have little respect for any of the current crop of political critters - they aren't trustworthy and I don't think any of them have the best interests of this country as a whole at heart.   

 

I'm not normally a pessimist, but the longer I live the more concerned I am about what the future will bring, because we're just accumulating problems not solving them.   eBay is a perfect example of that.  

Message 68 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

I'm not an economic PhD, but I do watch CNBC every weekday morning as they tend to offer differing views of all things economic. I am also among those that lived below my means my entire adult life and have no debt so I can live comfortably on my social security check and small pension. My required IRA withdrawal goes to charity.



I don't worry about a recession, but I do worry about the electrical grid and other infrastructure that has not been maintained. I worry about the environment - mainly because of the carelessness of humans - not so much because of fossil fuels. I am concerned about our education system that focuses far too much on pieces of paper and not enough on preparing young people for life in the real world.



I have little respect for any of the current crop of political critters - they aren't trustworthy and I don't think any of them have the best interests of this country as a whole at heart.



I'm not normally a pessimist, but the longer I live the more concerned I am about what the future will bring, because we're just accumulating problems not solving them. eBay is a perfect example of that.


I really appreciate your balanced, well thought out comments. Sometimes when I read other peoples comments, I get a little heated. It is only out of concern for the future of this country, our planet and future generations. I will take a deep breath and move on. This is afterall supposed to be a Ebay forum, not a political one. I call for a truce. Let's talk Ebay.
Message 69 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

Slow Ebay sales don't reflect a 'recession coming'. They reflect Ebay's DEAD business model. Why jump through all the hoops of buying on Ebay when you can purchase an item from Amazon and have the item delivered the next day?
Message 70 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

If CNN is so honest why did we all have to listen to Russia/collusion made up story from them for two and a half years. Oh and lets not forget all the other "bombshells" they drop on us. Oh and by he way in case you weren't paying attention the poles are a bunch of whoie. Same ones that said Trump didn't have a chance.

Message 71 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

Concur with that one.  Our local stores are full of buyers.  You can inspect what you are buying, see what type of quality you are getting and the only fault is your own if you don't like your item.  You can even try a clothing item on.  No waiting, no shipping and no chance of loss in the mail.  Done.

 

Message 72 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

The economic experts you see on the MSM are nothing more than paid shills who tow the line of the people handing them a paycheck. The majority of those "experts" failed to call the 2008 crash, even though it was obvious that disaster was looming. Anyone of reasonable intelligence can spend a couple of months with their nose in books on economic theory and see the house of cards being rebuilt here. No PHD needed. Once again, the economy is not being fueled by savings or productive capital investment. It is being fueled by debt, and rampant speculation. The too big to fails are already leveraged way past 2008 levels. 0% for 8 years, and easing is going on again. It does not matter if it's loans for housing people cant afford, student loans, cars, unsecured credit fueling the consumer economy, or keeping people off the street. The burst is proportional the the amount of artificial stimulus used to create it. 

Message 73 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones

Top ramon will still be delivered to your door by the case so I think we all will still be ok.
Message 74 of 121
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Re: Do you feel a recession coming in your bones


@richards*rock*collection wrote:
Top ramon will still be delivered to your door by the case so I think we all will still be ok.

And American Idol is still on to watch while eating that ramen.  Nothing could possibly go wrong. 

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