03-12-2020 09:34 AM - edited 03-12-2020 09:35 AM
The Dow Jones took another major hit this morning. Down another 2,000 points until trading was halted. When trading was allowed again the market continued a downward spiral, then up a bit, then began a roller coaster ride for another day. On a personal note, those of us who saved all our lives are holding our collective breaths as we watch our funds ghosting away.
More major events cancelling, attendance restrictions, school closings, scary news everywhere.
Two financial experts interviewed on CNN when asked if a USA recession is possible both stated a world wide recession has already begun. Expect the USA to be involved and expect gov bailouts to not be enough and not soon enough.
So, with all this scary news, sellers can expect buyers to scale back their spending and probably focus on necessary items before other purchases.
However, as with the last economic crisis, buyers did continue to purchase online and will do so now.
The question is, where do your items fall between necessary purchases and discretionary, feel good wants? Will you acquire additional inventory that will appeal to those who choose to stay home more? Will your inventory be relevant to the buyer market?
Not fear mongering or dramatizing anything here. Just wondering if other sellers, like myself, are considering if current inventory needs to be tweaked and how my business can best survive a long term economic downturn.
Thoughts?
03-12-2020 09:50 AM
03-12-2020 10:21 AM
Every single item in my inventory is a feel-good collectible sort of item. I expect that sales will slow down or stop completely. I'm already starting to see that happen. But eventually people may decide they do want some items that help them feel good again.
03-12-2020 10:32 AM - edited 03-12-2020 10:33 AM
The word of the day year is UNCERTAINTY. With the FM in charge, anything can happen.
03-12-2020 10:36 AM
Not tweaking a thing and going to continue to buy anything I can make a good profit on. why would I let outside circumstances beyond my control dictate my business and how I go about running it?
03-12-2020 01:05 PM
Those selling toilet roll will be just fine but if your not selling toilet roll your sales will be in the toilet! 😊
03-12-2020 01:09 PM
I agree that sales may slow or stop, but then again, people can shop online. I plan to keep adding new items.
Inventory?? I have plenty. This will be a great time to clean out closets - finding more items to list!! 😊
03-12-2020 01:36 PM - edited 03-12-2020 01:41 PM
The Motley Fool, an investment advice blog, has a post on Warren Buffett's take on the current situation.
I was particularly struck by this :
4. Don't view stocks as ticker symbols
To help maintain a clear head during stock market crashes, investors should remember that they are business owners -- not ticker symbol owners. While stock prices may plummet, the majority of companies with good business models and strong competitive advantages will likely see a far smaller negative impact to their underlying businesses during these periods. So, be sure to detach stock price performance from business performance.
Buffett elaborated on this concept in Berkshire's most recent shareholder letter:
"Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses,not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well."
03-12-2020 01:40 PM
Most of my stock is collectibles, stamps, postcards, books, but another important part is sewing patterns.
With fears of going to the mall to shop, and nervousness about buying from China, where so much of our clothing is made, I might see a small uptick in pattern sales.
Of course, only to people who already own sewing machines...
My sales are off, but I also had to remove some 600 listings while I moved the stock out of the way of the floor installer. I'm spending these sunny spring days relisting instead of planting out annuals.
03-12-2020 01:48 PM - edited 03-12-2020 01:50 PM
My items are just stuff I'm trying to downsize so I can fit a big house into a two bedroom senior apartment (which I'm glad I'm not living in right now -- too many old folks in a confined space!). On my main ID I'd removed some large Vernonware pitchers that are too expensive to ship. I put them on Facebook and finally one of the two people that expressed any interest said he'd come. I decided to put a bunch of other serving pieces out, "just in case" and it worked! 4 big pitchers, 2 oversized platters, a coffee pot and a bunch of large bowls all went to a new home.
This happened Monday evening. I wouldn't expect anyone to be buying Boomer and MCM stuff right now. For gosh sake's, they've just closed Disneyland until the end of the month!
03-12-2020 01:55 PM - edited 03-12-2020 01:56 PM
@b86fiero wrote:The question is, where do your items fall between necessary purchases and discretionary, feel good wants? Will you acquire additional inventory that will appeal to those who choose to stay home more? Will your inventory be relevant to the buyer market?
My inventory is entirely discretionary collectible foolishness, so my sales will probably take a hit.
But my inventory already paid for itself ten times over 5 years ago, so I could burn it all to keep warm next winter and not think twice about it.
03-12-2020 02:16 PM
Kudos to you & your "just in case" marketing success!
03-12-2020 02:18 PM
@kateinthe26th wrote:Those selling toilet roll will be just fine but if your not selling toilet roll your sales will be in the toilet! 😊
...or on a roll.
03-12-2020 04:00 PM
Reading that, I might think that Mr. Buffett would shy away from investing in ebay.
03-12-2020 04:03 PM
@chapeau-noir wrote:
@kateinthe26th wrote:Those selling toilet roll will be just fine but if your not selling toilet roll your sales will be in the toilet! 😊
...or on a roll.
(Groan, roll over, groan again)