Prediction = eBay will lose close to 7 Million Sellers due to GTC Change..

[crownsfieldcellular]

Well, I think it's official.  I've stated before on the boards numerous times that the GTC change on all BIN listings is going to put me out of business..And unfortunately?  Looking at my sales numbers, I am 99% sure I am right. 

Because my one off inventory is no longer moving on a weekly basis?  My business is dead, because I can no longer go out using my sales capital to buy more inventory.  It's that simple. 

And I'm actually AFRAID to buy more now to sell on here, because I see that nothing is selling.  So how can I justify buying more and sinking more money into ebay inventory which is simply not going to move anymore? 

I can't = I am going to have to close my eBay business eventually, because this business model is no longer sustainable in anyway..

Right now?  I know for a fact that are literally MILLIONS of sellers like myself, that relied on the Shorter Term BIN listings to move their merchandise...And I'm not guessing this..I see post after post, after post, after post that are saying EXACTLY what I am..That this has destroyed their sales, and is going to put them out...And these are just the very, very few that come on these boards (which is almost no one comparatively)..

I know also 1 Million percent that eBay has been FLOODED with calls from sellers - has to be hundreds and thousands of calls by now (if not millions of calls) protesting this..because when I call and protest now, I can tell they have heard what I am saying ad naseum...Every rep I speak to, I know has heard and dealt with these complaints now, constantly..

Which makes sense..because when the platform you TRUST and built your business on?  Does something so catastrophic, that it actually PUTS YOU OUT OF BUSINESS??  I think it goes without saying that you are going to call, and call repeatedly...

Ebay has 25 million sellers (at least they claim this)..By my estimation about 30% of those sellers or so are like me..Selling one off collectibles, phones, unique items (can be anything really), which they do not have "long tail" inventory of...

Therefore the GTC option not only is useless for us?  It is a huge, horrendous detriment to us, and is going to drive us either off eBay?  Or out of business completely..Whichever comes first (but it will be one or the other, no question)

So, let's say that its only 25% of us out of the 25,000,000 for arguments sake..That's 6.25 Million sellers round about. 

Now, I know when I was doing well on here (which ended EXACTLY one day after the GTC change took place), I was paying about $1000 a month in fees.  Thats me, that might be a very high compared to others, I dont know..

To be fair?  Let's use a much, much lower number..Let's say out of that 6.25 Million?  They are all paying an average of $500 a YEAR in fees, call it Final Value Fees only (again just for the sake of this example)...

Let's say eBay is "successful" at what they are doing, in putting this 25% of it's sellers out of business and driving us (and ACTUALLY FORCING us to leave the site, because we can no longer get sales on here at all) off the site.. 

Let's assume they are going to be successful in getting rid of us, effectively "trimming" 25% of their "sales force"...

When you multiply 6.25 Million by 500?  The projected loss of revenue is approximately $3,125,000,000  per YEAR..In lost revenue to eBay...that's over 3 BILLION, with a B they stand to lose..

Now considering that ebay's revenue for all of 2018 was 10.7 Billion (according to them)?...When all of these sellers either walk, or are forced off the site, or simply go out of business on ebay and just cant sell here anymore, because they've been wiped out? 

This means eBay is projected to slash over 30% of its revenue by doing what they are doing, and refusing to EVEN LISTEN to the 25% of us who are SCREAMING AT THEM TO CHANGE THIS BACK...

Now my numbers are far from definitive of course..I am willing to bet that we the 6.25 million who are being destroyed by this change? 

Are probably paying a hell of alot more than $500 a year in Final Value Fees...I know personally I was lined up to pay almost $12,000 by the end of this year or more...

So...I dont know what these people are trying to accomplish here exactly?  But I hope for their sakes they have a REAL GOOD PLAN IN PLACE to replace this revenue they are going to lose. 

I guess maybe they have a absolutely insane influx of China sellers waiting in the wings, that they are betting are going to replace the 6.25 Million American sellers somehow that are walking, or going to simply die on this site..

It's either that?  Or this is finally going to be the move that wipes eBay out for good, along with millions of others they are going to take down with them..

And if that happens?  After what they just did to me and my business, and millions of other people's businesses on here?  Hard working, long time, GOOD sellers?  Who built their businesses up for YEARS on here? 

All of the families they are going to destroy, and all the devastation they are going to cause to all of us?  While pretending to blissfully not give a **bleep**?  And trying to placate us with corporate "platitudes"??

I say they will then ultimately get what they deserve, and honestly at this point?  It can't happen soon enough to them.

Might be time to smarten UP ebay, and start LISTENING to your SELLERS (CUSTOMERS), before it is WAYYYYY too late...

That time has possibly already come..

[kim_y_buran]

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@sharp_edgeknives wrote:
Amazon,I have a daughter that loves the river. I don't

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Here's the thing, the sellers who have stock that would sell on Amazon are already there, and have been all along.  They are also the sellers who are the least affected by the GTC.   The people who try to offload junk they pick up at garage sales will find out that Amazon is a very harsh place for a seller,  with high fees, no seller protection whatsoever, and (surprise!)  GTC listings.

[hioctane62]

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@johnrj1226 wrote:

My look at this "prediction" that is an opinion - nothing more nothing less.  My  opinion with no solid back  and a nickle  won't buy you a cup of coffee - except at Wall Drug, Wall, South Dakota.  That price  has not increased since 1976, the last time I went thru there and is still current plus  it  is sold on the honor system.

In my 41  in sales/sale management, attending AMA seminar, sales management conferences, Curry & Associates business management seminars etc. one thread  that went through all of them  when customer retention was  the topic  on the average a business must plan to at least loose 10% of their  existing customer  base  every year.  So if the they  wish to  grow (market share, profits increase  sales revenue,  product  line expansions etc.) they must develop a plan/program to replace those  lost plus extra if the want to grow with a plan  how to attract additional new customers.

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Their problem is that when they do attract new customers (sellers), they allow them to be targeted by fraudsters and thieves, then ebay helps the fraudsters and thieves to steal from those new sellers, which creates a bad customer "experience". BUT... ebay does not acknowledge or believe that SELLERS are their customers. They think SELLERS' customers are THEIR customers. As long as ebay does not realize who their customer is, they CANNOT make positive changes.

[kittykat.949]

You are so wrong---I commend clicktobuyusa---Obviously He/she is fighting for the survival of their business & at the same time clicktobuyusa is beating the drum trying to wake up the complacent & clueless masses to action who seem to go along with everything with their--OH WELL---IT IS WHAT IT IS---JUST ADAPT attitude. This country was built on the spirit of people like clicktobuyusa---Ever hear of the BOSTON TEA PARTY.I keep saying---this IS NOT just another ordinary irritating run of the mill change--this is a TOTAL GAME CHANGER---a direct HEAD SHOT---the kind that you DO NOT recover from because YOU DIE---GAME OVER. If you want to go along with the herd that is your rIte-----BAHHHHHH -----but PLEASE RESPECT the rest of us who believe in speaking up for ourselves & DO NOT treat us like we are just complaining, ranting pains in the butt because that is about as insulting & demeaning as it gets.

[jeannicho22]

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised FVF prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised store prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay required everyone to offer PayPal

I remember predictions like this when....

Just fill in the blank. 

I know there are a lot of sellers out there that are super upset about the new requirement, but most will adapt.  For those that will not or can not adapt, some other requirement would have forced them off the site eventually.  eBay is notorious for creating square pegs that they expect all sellers to fit in, the fact is most will.

This is me PERSONALLY.... I've been using GTC for years and don't really know what the big deal is.  I guess I will still have to educate myself to the issues that affect others. 

I LOVE GTC, your mileage may vary.

[pooh333piglet]

ebay will come back with an option to list for shorter duration. BUT it will cost more $. Thats part of their game. AND they will act like they are doing it to respond to sellers cos they are just so nice and want to help us. Give it just a bit of time. 

[uniwarehousewares]

Sellers will go no where, if you thinking amazon? amazon is terrible place for sellers, amazon is working like a bank soon it will be like nokia, there are more fake customers on amazon than on ebay. 

[uniwarehousewares]

Sellers will go no where, if you thinking amazon? amazon is terrible place for sellers, amazon is working like a bank soon it will be like nokia, there are more fake customers on amazon than on ebay. ebay is best place to sell , bcz there is no **bleep** like amazon prime. where amazon buy from sellers and sell through warehouse at low cost than the seller inventory. 

[zamo-zuan]

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@jeannicho22 wrote:

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised FVF prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised store prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay required everyone to offer PayPal

I remember predictions like this when....

Just fill in the blank. 

I know there are a lot of sellers out there that are super upset about the new requirement, but most will adapt.  For those that will not or can not adapt, some other requirement would have forced them off the site eventually.  eBay is notorious for creating square pegs that they expect all sellers to fit in, the fact is most will.

This is me PERSONALLY.... I've been using GTC for years and don't really know what the big deal is.  I guess I will still have to educate myself to the issues that affect others. 

I LOVE GTC, your mileage may vary.

---

If you have been using GTC for years, you should have noticed the drastic changes since the beginning of 2018. 

If you watch Terapeak, impressions, views, and search your own items, it's nearly impossible to avoid seeing the problems with GTC.

Up until the end of 2017, GTC search results were based nearly 100% on your product history. Which mean if you do a good job, and build trust with repeat customers, you got more exposure. It encouraged healthy competition.

Since 2018, product history means almost nothing. It's now a mixture of price/shipping/free returns/guaranteed delivery/promotions/sponsorships/SEO statistics like views impressions and conversion rate.

Around 50% of each page of search results is trying to show various listings of all types, and only 50% are "naturally high ranking" items.

No matter how you look at it, we're more limited in visibility since 2018 than we were before. And it's unsustainable design as you can't possibly match well with all these variables. You can't have cheapest price if you're offering % to sponsored listings, free returns, and free shipping.

Top 10 seller market share was 40% in July 2017. It was 27% in July 2018. This means the average top seller on eBay dropped more than 30% in a single year.

This should alarm everyone.

[zamo-zuan]

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@pooh333piglet wrote:

ebay will come back with an option to list for shorter duration. BUT it will cost more $. Thats part of their game. AND they will act like they are doing it to respond to sellers cos they are just so nice and want to help us. Give it just a bit of time. 

---

I'm betting they won't do that (because their system is basically being built towards the whole new GTC system, and now that everyone is GTC, the algorithms are "working as intended") and instead will have to fix their poorly designed algorithms. Since they can't hide the problems anymore.

I mean anyone with basic marketing knowledge can see the problem. If sellers are paying eBay a % for sponsored listings (eBay claims trending rate is up to 8%????) then that is making prices 8% higher for customers! That's a horrible marketplace business model and is only going to make eBay less and less competitive vs the competition.

People above keep saying "There's no place to go, eBay is the best". Are you talking from a seller perspective? I'm assuming because we can manage our own inventory? Well... think of it from a BUYER perspective. EBay is NOT the cheapest anymore. EBay search does NOT work well with collectibles/unique items anymore. EBay is NOT the best return policies. EBay is NOT the best shipping. EBay does 0 quality control on what is sent to buyers, feedback isn't even considered in search anymore.

EBay is certainly NOT the best for buyers. Scammers? Maybe. Because it seems repeat "serial scammers" still are on active accounts. But not legit buyers. 

[equid0x]

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@thepatchmasters wrote:

Agreed. And I love the snide comments. I like all your comments. I also am a snarky person at heart. 

Anyway my sales have tanked. I am / was a 3 day lister. But I drastically dropped prices because of this stupid new policy and have started listing on other platforms. 

Example. Yesterday I listed 4 Bose speakers on FB marketplace and they sold within a day for 90$. When I marked it as sold I had 520 views. In one freaking day. No joke. I was floored. I had the same listing on scambay since GTC came into effect and had a total of 15 views. Anyway I didn't have to ship and actually felt good about the sale because I don't have to worry about returns, fees, and shipping. Then same day I sold a ps2 for 60$. Same exuberant feeling. 

Now the only problem is that not everything I sell sells on there. 

Also trying out Mercari. It's structure is soooooo good. The shipping is good over there too. If everyone went over there I think over time it would be the new place to sell. Unfortunately it has a long way to go with brand recognition.

Anyway dude. Keep up the good posts. You speak truth.

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I've had very poor results on the FB Marketplace. At least in my area, it seems to be the same crowd who used to frequent Craigslist with the same games, lowballing, no-shows, etc. On the upside, you can block them but some of them appear to be creating new accounts all the time. 

I also get TONS of people who like to chat you up about an item and then never buy anything, or say they're going to buy and never buy anything.

[equid0x]

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@hioctane62 wrote:

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@kim_y_buran wrote:

I just have one question - where do these sellers go?

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There are actually several places where the "new" buyers are actually looking and buying, only one of which was mentioned earlier in this thread. When I say "new" buyers, I'm referring to millennials and gen z. They are not looking on ebay. Ebay is where their grandparents bought stuff online.

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I disagree. Millennials were born from 1981 - 1999 so many of them were adults when eBay was the hot marketplace in the early 2000's. Gen Z is 2000+ who probably would not have used eBay as a primary source, yet, as many are only just now becoming adults. 

[equid0x]

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@calntom wrote:

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@lacemaker3 wrote:

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@johnrj1226 wrote:

@lacemaker3

 How did you come by  this info?   If it is spot on the OP might want to use your  information source .

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The OP can access his own sales records of course. In his case, his sales numbers vary a lot, week by week, so just 12 weeks (total) and only 3 weeks since GTC started is not enough to draw conclusions.

There hasn't been enough time since GTC started to draw any conclusions on what effect it has had on sales overall.

eBay makes changes like this to improve the bottom line. If the effect of GTC does not improve sales and income, then they will change it.

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I agree that if the bottom line is effected negatively, eBay will change it.

When eBay meddled with the Markdown Manager last summer, it took them a couple of months to drop most all of the changes which I am sure was effecting the bottom line. 

I only use GTC but I would certainly like to have the shorter duration listing options available if needed. I would hope eBay comes back with something in May that makes some of the shorter duration listings available again for sellers that know how to work them and depend on them in their business plan.

3, 5 and maybe 7 day durations could prevent Google from caching the listings and thus avoid the dead links they were speaking of. More than likely 3 and 5 days could be an option. I hope they work something out for those that need them. 

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Google pushes my own shopping feeds live within a couple hours of update. I'm not sure why eBay is claiming that it takes days for the items to show up. If I sell an item, it drops off the feed and out of the shipping listings the same day. 

For that matter, eBay doesn't have to include short duration listings in the shopping feeds at all. I have several items that are for sale on my own sites but are not in the google shopping feeds because I don't want them there. 

[jeannicho22]

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@zamo-zuan wrote:

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@jeannicho22 wrote:

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised FVF prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised store prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay required everyone to offer PayPal

I remember predictions like this when....

Just fill in the blank. 

I know there are a lot of sellers out there that are super upset about the new requirement, but most will adapt.  For those that will not or can not adapt, some other requirement would have forced them off the site eventually.  eBay is notorious for creating square pegs that they expect all sellers to fit in, the fact is most will.

This is me PERSONALLY.... I've been using GTC for years and don't really know what the big deal is.  I guess I will still have to educate myself to the issues that affect others. 

I LOVE GTC, your mileage may vary.

---

If you have been using GTC for years, you should have noticed the drastic changes since the beginning of 2018. 

If you watch Terapeak, impressions, views, and search your own items, it's nearly impossible to avoid seeing the problems with GTC.

Up until the end of 2017, GTC search results were based nearly 100% on your product history. Which mean if you do a good job, and build trust with repeat customers, you got more exposure. It encouraged healthy competition.

Since 2018, product history means almost nothing. It's now a mixture of price/shipping/free returns/guaranteed delivery/promotions/sponsorships/SEO statistics like views impressions and conversion rate.

Around 50% of each page of search results is trying to show various listings of all types, and only 50% are "naturally high ranking" items.

No matter how you look at it, we're more limited in visibility since 2018 than we were before. And it's unsustainable design as you can't possibly match well with all these variables. You can't have cheapest price if you're offering % to sponsored listings, free returns, and free shipping.

Top 10 seller market share was 40% in July 2017. It was 27% in July 2018. This means the average top seller on eBay dropped more than 30% in a single year.

This should alarm everyone.

---

The problems you have mentioned are a problem with Cassini, eBay's search engine and not GTC.  That's kind of like saying that if the engine in a car is bad, switching the brand of oil is causes the car to mis-fire.

The statistics you've listed are well before GTC was implemented as mandatory and surely should alarm everyone.  Come back after 6 or 8 months with the same statistics.  Product history does still mean something, I know this because I may sell an item that hasn't sold in some time.  Once I sell one of them, I start selling the same design over and over again.

[divwido]

Well then, YES! More room for me.

[equid0x]

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@jeannicho22 wrote:

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised FVF prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay raised store prices

I remember predictions like this when eBay required everyone to offer PayPal

I remember predictions like this when....

Just fill in the blank. 

I know there are a lot of sellers out there that are super upset about the new requirement, but most will adapt.  For those that will not or can not adapt, some other requirement would have forced them off the site eventually.  eBay is notorious for creating square pegs that they expect all sellers to fit in, the fact is most will.

This is me PERSONALLY.... I've been using GTC for years and don't really know what the big deal is.  I guess I will still have to educate myself to the issues that affect others. 

I LOVE GTC, your mileage may vary.

---

I've used both and certain things sell better with listings that end. 

The thing is eBay's management of these things seems almost schizophrenic. Wasn't it just a couple years ago they were complaining that there were too many items on eBay so they were closing listings that had been open too long and not sold? Now, they're removing the ability to automatically end listings so won't they ultimately end up with the "too many listings" problem again?

The biggest issue in my opinion is that the changes being made don't seem to be changes anyone is really requesting. eBay simply labels something as the "new industry standard" and then pushes it out, but without backing it with any real facts or statistics. Then, they either back off the changes they made or continue to shoot themselves in the foot... seems random what they keep and what they toss. 

You can see tons of sellers coming on this board complaining about the same problems, yet nothing ever seems to be done that actually addresses the problems sellers are complaining about.