I don't get involved in too many threads, but after reading this one, I think I have to. I don't think many of the folks on here understand the program, nor how it is likely to play out. I think this is an excellent idea by eBay, and will simply come down to execution as to whether it's a raving success or total flop. I'm in a rare position where I'm a relatively new seller with almost 10K items in my day job (where I get paid for doing this stuff), and a 14-year small veteran selling stuff in a home business that I hope to retire to. So, let me say how I see it.
First, this is not ebay's way to get rid of small sellers. The small seller generally sells glassware, collectibles, clothes, and so on....stuff where the buyer might like to have it Thursday, but unless it's a birthday present and they waited too long, it doesn't really matter. There, the buyer will care more about getting the one they want at the price they want than getting it shipped out today. Minimal impact on most small sellers.
However, the buyer who cares about guaranteed delivery is someone who DOES need it urgently. If their airplane's tire falls off and they need new lug nuts before they fly to Moab tomorrow, they want it shipped next day air today, not when somebody gets around to it. If your freezer goes out and your side of beef will start stinking in 2 days, guaranteed delivery matters.
As for the risk....the handling time option is great for people who serve customers in category 2 above. This is where we fall, but I can only guarantee shipping times on some products. Others are products that we rebuild before we ship them, and that can take a few days to happen. Can't rush a shipment when you're waiting for paint to dry, for example. But for the products I can ship immediately, why not serve my customers with urgent needs? With my home business, this isn't my plan. Doesn't matter for my figurines and paintings, and also, if my wife and I decide to go away for a long weekend, I don't want to miss a guaranteed ship date.
Is eBay stupid for not charging for this service? Absolutely not! Amazon isn't charging for Prime so that it can ship ground the next day, they're charging for an upgrade to 2-day delivery (which they probably negotiated with the carrier at no extra charge). What about eBay's losses on claims? The carriers, in general, are very reliable, and claims will be low. Don't forget that eBay takes a FVF on shipping and does nothing. That builds up big reserves of cash, and paying a little bit of it back in claims for what IS a big advantage to the buyer over Amazon's program is a smart thing. And...it wouldn't surprise me if they swung a deal with the carriers so they aren't hurt badly. The carriers already have to reimburse sellers (if you ask them to) for late shipments and it's not for one of the stated reasons (except USPS...who may well have agreed in order for eBay to promote them in the program instead of shooing people to UPS/FedEx). Ebay can easily automate that, leaving them responsible for the weather related problems.....a very low risk in exchange for offering something nobody else has.
Lastly....why door to door guarantee? For most sellers, it would be stupid. However, for the big guys who have warehouses scattered around the country, it gives them control over everything. eBay asks where something will ship from in determining guaranteed dates. The seller may not even know (it depends on where their stock is at the time for what's ordered), but if they have 100 warehouses around the country, they can guarantee delivery from one of them to all addresses within 2 days. If they say it ships from Atlanta and the customer is in Seattle, eBay will quote 6 days and they may lose the sale. Instead, with D2D, they say 2 days and ship from Portland, and they not only win the sale, but have low shipping costs. eBay does not currently handle multiple shipping locations, so the seller must handle this on their own.
This is not a terrible program, nor does it spell doom and gloom. Sellers need to be smart in how they implement it, and stop whining about how unfair eBay is. They are offering a platform where we are largely in control, and our competition is not eBay.....it's Google, and all the other sites that people sell on that we're not on (I sell on many other sites, but there's way more that I don't sell on). If they get the sale, we lose. If they buy on eBay, we all have a fighting chance, and it's up to who does the best job here. Use the tools to maximize sales. Selling is a competitive business, and nobody is going to hand us anything. Seize the day.
