Consumer confidence plummeting, virtually guaranteed to explain at least some sales loss

[gurlcat]

There are so many news articles that came out today about a drastic drop in consumer confidence over the past month, I would post one but they all say the same thing.  Here's what you have to keep in mind: the metric includes everything people MIGHT buy, so that would include things they MUST buy, but it'll just be a matter of what tier they decide to go with.  If someone needs a car they'll be more likely to buy used rather than new.  If they have a headache they'll more likely buy generic acetomenophen rather than Tylenol. 

But what makes this a concern for lots of us eBay sellers is, if they DON'T need something, they'll be less likely to buy it at all, not when they're scared about whether they can afford all the things they definitely need. 

If you're still doing fine, that's awesome.  This post isn't about you. 

[luckythewinner]

Policies that eroded consumer confidence have ended or are ending. Expect a short delay, longer than 4 weeks, before you begin to feel prosperous.

I will bookmark this post, and try to revisit it monthly for the next four years to see how prosperous the bottom 90% are feeling. 

[12345jamesstamps]

Yes...we know who calls on our cell phones and I don't know a person who answers a poll call or a text poll call or an email on their cell phone...I ignore them all. It shows who's calling usually...LOL

So, more and more land-lines are disappearing...We have a land-line still...but AT&T is doing away with them in the Bay Area from the notices we got in the mail from AT&T.

And really funny, I was getting some in a Chinese language and while back and they were leaving me voice mail in Chinese. My other half is Chinese.

Usually the older generation like my mom has still a land-line.

[kensgiftshop]

---

@iamalwaysright wrote:

---

@kensgiftshop wrote:

---

@gurlcat wrote:

But what makes this a concern for lots of us eBay sellers is, if they DON'T need something, they'll be less likely to buy it at all

---

It's been like that for a few years now hasn't it?

I know a lot of people have stopped buying the want's and just buying what they need.

---

Sounds like me my entire life. But then again my wife is in the other end of the spectrum so I guess together we’re a wash.

There’s buyers who will go against reason and splurge on something they want to make themselves feel better temporarily. Regardless of how crappy they think their finances are. I believe a lot of my customer base right now are these types of buyers. I just hope they don’t wise up and file a return, that’s the negative side effect with these types of buyers.

---

My daughter dated a guy like that

On payday, he'd go out and buy a bunch of stuff, then the next week when he was out of money, started returning the items.

[gurlcat]

I didn't say a single thing about politics in my original post, and most of the replies have not been about politics either. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@gurlcat Well, I'll just keep on plugging. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@gurlcat By the way, ebay stock was up today, and ebay issues its Q4 report tomorrow , and likely will include its forecast for 2025 or at least for Q1 2025 (which is already more than half over).

I am expecting ebay to discuss, either in the press release itself or in the stock analyst conference call: potential tariff impact (ebay derives about 50% of its revenue from cross border trade), the Facebook Marketplace test that was announced with much fanfare and then quickly went silent, any actual GMV growth (as opposed to just revenue growth) and , possibly, this recent consumer confidence survey. I'm sure we'll hear a lot about the Magic of AI, Focus Category developments, the UK's fee situation, and more.

As usual, I will try to listen to the Conference Call live, and I'm sure @valueaddedresource will provide an analysis within a day or two on her blog.

[gurlcat]

Thank you, looking forward to it!

[go-bad-chicken]

@gurlcat 

From CNN earlier today

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/25/economy/us-consumer-confidence-february/index.html 

"The latest evidence comes from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February, released Tuesday morning. The index fell to 98.3, falling for the third-straight month and marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021, as expectations for inflation in the year ahead climbed. That coincides with the trends reflected in the University of Michigan’s consumer survey for February."

Without a doubt Americans are spending a little bit less than they were in 2021 but I'm not surprised and feel that that is/was to be expected.  BUT with that said in my opinion (which could be be totally wrong and probably is)....we as a country are currently cutting out the fat within our overall global market value, which was artificially inflated above its true actual value over the past 10 years or so.

But as a seasoned online seller I do have confidence in my own abilities to adjust to the current market's situation. Over the past 15 years, Ive learned that versatility and adaptability are always going to be the key to general success online,  and that sometimes success is measured solely by the fact that I'm still here doing this.

But that's just me. But as the saying goes.... your mileage may vary.

[gurlcat]

What adaptations do you recommend for maintaining general success online? 

[go-bad-chicken]

---

@gurlcat wrote:

What adaptations do you recommend for maintaining general success online? 

---

In my opinion, what sellers should not be doing IS NOT "quitting eBay".

What they should be doing and exploring is (increasing their personnel brands bandwidth and exposure). i.e. branching into other available venues/opportunities. Taking the very exact same inventory that any given seller is already making available for sale on eBay, and making that same inventory available at other locations. eBay is not going anywhere. But at the same time, it as well as its sellers (myself included) are currently having to deal with eBay's loss of its past market dominance.

"What adaptations do you recommend for maintaining general success online?"

 ....other online marketplaces (increasing your personnel brands bandwidth or exposure), social media outlets (Instagram, Facebook, X, etc., etc., ect,.....), live in person shows, your own Shopify/online store, selling to consumers via other auction services, whether that may be in person or online (Live Auctioneers) . The list goes on and on.

...but IMO 89.88% of the sellers here on eBay really just don't want to put in the work and it is work, required to survive and grow in today's new 2025 inter-web.

[chapeau-noir]

On and on...yes. 

I suspect the days of casual selling are waning. A casual seller isn't going to care about multi-channel selling, endless marketing in the mosh pit called Shopify, dragging their krap to outside shows, getting onto Zuck's troll site to have their data harvested, etc.  I've been through that, and would rather burn the stuff before putting myself through it again, particularly with the changes in marketing strategies. If I were younger and still building my business, I might bother. 

Agree that quitting eBay isn't going to do  much good.

[johnrj1226]

No but the ball is rolling at a real decent pace.  Rome wasn't built in a day either.  Previous admin left  a fine mess to unravel aka  **bleep**.

[johnrj1226]

A secret to success for sellers is do some research and find out what  buyers are buying if the stuff you have listed ain't moving so much any more.  Buyers haven't stopped buying but they are looking to stretch their dollars.  Maybe it is pre owned DIY stuff or buyers turned to buying used items vs new.

Along time  ago I stopped buying new automobiles, SUVs - worst investment you can buy  and turn to buying 2 or 3  y.o. off lease  vehicles w/20 to 35K miles on the odometer (let the first user  fund the initial deprecation of the new purchase.  Heck  it ain't nothing to  get  well over 200K on a vehicle - if you take care it - oil is always cheaper than metal and you don't drive like a NASCAR driver Wannabee or play bumper cars.

Glad  we were part of the Boomer generation and  taught  our children and grand children  even our 6 y.o Grand son, the value of saving, thrift, and difference  between the "I needs and what I like to  haves".

[fbusoni]

---

@gurlcat wrote:

There are so many news articles that came out today about a drastic drop in consumer confidence over the past month, I would post one but they all say the same thing.  

---

@gurlcat 

"Virtually guaranteed to explain at least some sales loss."

Agree fully. 

Human beings by their very nature crave stability, consistency, predictability.   And it's especially important here in the USA.  

It's all about fine tuning to get to a desired end state that represents at least some form of consensus.

I think that it's important to note that perceptions of chaos are what is important here.  

Epic, sweeping promises of prosperity are risky; one need not be an economist to understand that.

And in 2025, the emptiness of such promises is supercharged by the poison and distortions of social media.  

Mass disappointment is inevitable.

[fbusoni]

---

@hartungcards wrote:

Longer than 4 weeks?  Didn't he say he'd have all this fixed on Day One?

---

@hartungcards 

Bingo.  It's all about perceptions.

Opaque theoretical explanations of economic dynamics are wholly irrelevant for the average American voter.  

They just want what they were told they were gonna get.

Tragically -- after a steady 30 year diet of fast food and a 15-year long period of popular immersion in social media -- we now are witnessing the perfect storm, as it were.

To say that tens of millions are going to be gobsmacked in the coming weeks and months would be understatement of the epoch.