USPS Rate Increase (Sept 16 2024) - based on zip codes, not zones

[wastingtime101]

Per this announcement:

Effective September 16, 2024, USPS will increase rates for package delivery to select zip codes. Although this increase affects a very low percentage of transactions on ebay.com, you may see a higher shipping label cost for some locations.

The increase is for weight-based and cubic packages up to 20 lbs. for Priority Mail, Priority Mail Flat Rate, and Ground Advantage delivery to these zip codes.

The eBay shipping calculator will automatically update on September 16 with the new rates.

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Took a quick look at some of the zips on the list; they look mostly rural. Anybody else think a price change based on specific zip code rather than an entire zone is too complicated?

Stamps.com released a similar announcement a couple weeks ago (link) but it was incredibly vague. At least this announcement from eBay explains more than stamps.com did.

I don't see anything from pirateship.com (yet).

[nobody*s_perfect]

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@the-movie-man-plus wrote:

I love how it says only a small percentage of Zips are affected. Only to find out it's 17,810 Zip Codes. So I did a search, the number of Zip Codes in the United States, of which there are currently 41,642 Active Zip Codes. ... it's like just over a third of all Zips in the country that are now affected. Not really a small percentage like we are led to believe. 

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17,810/41,642 = 0.427

[wastingtime101]

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@the-movie-man-plus wrote:

I love how it says only a small percentage of Zips are affected. 

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That's not at all what it says @the-movie-man-plus .

I did the math and approx 42% of zips are affected. But these are lower population areas, generating smaller amounts of sales/shipments, which is why the announcement said:

"this increase affects a very low percentage of transactions"

I take that to mean eBay did the math and the amount of sales to these zip codes is minimal. I've seen eBay use the term "very low percentage" only when it's a truly low single digit %. No idea if that applies here, but I'm making an educated assumption based on past updates from the past 5 years where eBay provided stats when asked what "very low" meant.

[valueaddedresource]

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@the-movie-man-plus wrote:

I love how it says only a small percentage of Zips are affected. Only to find out it's 17,810 Zip Codes. So I did a search, the number of Zip Codes in the United States, of which there are currently 41,642 Active Zip Codes. So in actuality this isn't a small number that is affected like the post mentions. Because if you took 41,642 and divided it by the number of states, 50, you get 832.8 Zip Codes per state or rounded up you get 833. So if you take the aforementioned 17,810 Zip Codes and divide it by 50, the number of states you will get 356 Zips of 833 that are now affected per state! Really it's like just over a third of all Zips in the country that are now affected. Not really a small percentage like we are led to believe. 

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@the-movie-man-plus  it doesn't say only a small percentage of zip codes are affected.

It says only a small percentage of transactions will be affected.

As others here have indicated, many of these zip codes are in rural or less populated areas.

We have no way of knowing exactly how eBay's overall buyer demographics break out geographically but it's likely that those areas make up a very small percentage of the overall buyer base here.

So while this change appears to affect ~43% of US zip codes, it is entirely possible that it will only impact a small percentage of transactions on eBay as the announcement claims.

[kalyoth]

USPS may find out hard way once it goes to Congress what the definition of small is. 1/3 of the US does not fit the definition of small & this may violate the mandate they operate under for equalized pricing for their services. Will be interesting.

[wastingtime101]

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@kalyoth wrote:

this may violate the mandate they operate under for equalized pricing for their services.

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These rates are strictly affecting third party postage providers that traditionally have deeper discounts.

Public-facing retail rates are zone-based and not zip code-based as this change will be.

[valueaddedresource]

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@kalyoth wrote:

USPS may find out hard way once it goes to Congress what the definition of small is. 1/3 of the US does not fit the definition of small & this may violate the mandate they operate under for equalized pricing for their services. Will be interesting.

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@kalyoth  go back and read the previous posts.

It's not USPS that said it will have a "small" effect, that was eBay's wording - and they were talking about transactions, not zip codes.

As to equalized pricing, it appears this is only being applied to Competitive Products like Priority and Ground Advantage, not Market Dominant products like Media Mail and it's also a change in the negotiated service agreement rates for third party providers, not a change to published retail or commercial rates directly from USPS, which means the oversight and approval process is a bit different.

Doesn't mean I like it or think it's fair, but it's important to look at the facts as they are.

[wastingtime101]

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@wastingtime101 wrote:

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@wastingtime101 wrote:

The increase is for weight-based and cubic packages up to 20 lbs. for Priority Mail, Priority Mail Flat Rate, and Ground Advantage delivery to these zip codes.

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Hey kyle@ebay . I noticed the announcement specifically said rates are affected TO those zip codes.

There's no mention of rates being affected FROM those zip codes. If a seller lives in one of those zip codes, is it safe to say their label costs will only be affected it they are shipping TO an affected zip?

For example, a seller is located in an affected zip but shipping TO Los Angeles - does that mean the lower rate will apply since it's based on the "TO" and not the "FROM" - or is it based on both to AND from meaning every package under 20 lbs the seller ships will be affected by higher rates?

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Hey kyle@ebay . Can you try to get an answer on ^^ this? Thanks!

[kyle@ebay]

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@wastingtime101 wrote:

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@wastingtime101 wrote:

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@wastingtime101 wrote:

The increase is for weight-based and cubic packages up to 20 lbs. for Priority Mail, Priority Mail Flat Rate, and Ground Advantage delivery to these zip codes.

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Hey kyle@ebay . I noticed the announcement specifically said rates are affected TO those zip codes.

There's no mention of rates being affected FROM those zip codes. If a seller lives in one of those zip codes, is it safe to say their label costs will only be affected it they are shipping TO an affected zip?

For example, a seller is located in an affected zip but shipping TO Los Angeles - does that mean the lower rate will apply since it's based on the "TO" and not the "FROM" - or is it based on both to AND from meaning every package under 20 lbs the seller ships will be affected by higher rates?

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Hey kyle@ebay . Can you try to get an answer on ^^ this? Thanks!

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Hey @wastingtime101 we don't have any additional details at this time, but if we do get more info from USPS on this, we'll be sure to follow up!

[oaklandmaryland]

there is always one in October and then for Christmas too

[2010*minky]

I thought Ebay would adjust our listings automatically to account for the rate rise. A  listing  sold last night a few hours before midnight. The shipping price rose almost $2 from what the customer was charged, and it took me awhile to realize what happened. Looks like there was a Twilight Zone of a few hours before the listings would reflect the new rates. So my customer paid the old rate, and I must ship & pay the difference. Here's hoping it was a one-time glitch.

[lacemaker3]

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@2010*minky wrote:

I thought Ebay would adjust our listings automatically to account for the rate rise. A  listing  sold last night a few hours before midnight. The shipping price rose almost $2 from what the customer was charged, and it took me awhile to realize what happened. Looks like there was a Twilight Zone of a few hours before the listings would reflect the new rates. So my customer paid the old rate, and I must ship & pay the difference. Here's hoping it was a one-time glitch.

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Sorry, if your listing sold yesterday before midnight, that was Sept 15, before the shipping price change went into effect. Any listings sold and paid before Sept 16 would be charged the old price. Unfortunately, that's how it works when shipping prices change. Not really a glitch, but predictable.

[nobody*s_perfect]

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@lacemaker3 wrote: .... Any listings sold and paid before Sept 16 would be charged the old price. ...

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Yes, the new rates hadn't gone into effect when the buyer paid.

A $2 price jump is a bit much.  USPS hadn't explained how much the increase would be, so this is a useful tidbit of information.

[wastingtime101 · Accepted solution]

A few entries into the eBay shipping calc and we can see how this is working.

1. Shipping from any zip code to affected zip codes we are seeing USPS published commercial rates.
2. Shipping from affected zip codes to non-affected zip codes we are seeing the deeper merchant rates negotiated between USPS and eBay (that answers the question I asked kyle@ebay upthread).
3. Shipping from any zip code to non-affected zip codes we are seeing the deeper merchant rates negotiated between USPS and eBay.

Here are a few specific examples:

90210 CA to 01005 MA (affected zip)

Dm 10x10x10
Wt 5 lb

Ground Adv $14.16 = commercial rate

90210 CA to 02108 Boston

Dm 10x10x10
Wt 5lb

Ground Adv $13.44 = discounted merchant rate

01005 MA (affected zip) to 90210 CA

Dm 10x10x10
Wt 5lb

Ground Adv $13.44 = discounted merchant rate

Edit to add: I ran some tests to see if affected zips have the benefit of cubic rates. They do, but they are the USPS published commercial cubic rates. Ex: dm 6x4x4 wt 10 lb Bev Hills to MA = 0.10 cu Grnd Adv to zone 8 = $8.47 vs non-cubic $19.76

So that part is good, at least.

I still think this was a bad move by USPS to make it zip code based instead of zone based. Way too confusing and makes it much harder to manage - especially for those on eBay that use rate tables.

[2010*minky]

Well, I rounded up that number; really it went up only $1.38. Not a big deal for one sale, but I had forgotten we were due for a rise, so it took another cup of coffee to figure out what was going on. Hurray for this Community resource! I'm assuming the listing shipping calculator will now be showing the actual shipping price to the customer from here til...the next increase.

[wastingtime101]

Mark your calendar @2010*minky because USPS will be implementing the holiday season surcharge in a couple of weeks so you may see a similar issue of a price discrepancy between weekend orders and shipping labels going out on the following Monday.

This will always be a problem as long as you charge buyers the online discounted rate instead of the retail rate with no built in handling fee or cushion of any kind.

Charging buyers the discounted rate also means you will lose money on every single shipping label every single day unless you account for eBay fees on ship cost with either a handling fee or an increase to your item prices.