eBay

valueaddedresource · ‎12-10-2020

Yesterday's weekly chat got me thinking about eBay legacy technology and some small ways it seems like eBay is maybe making an effort to join the 21st century, like the current beta test for Multi-Location API and optional weekend handling time.

Item location has historically presented challenges for legitimate companies with more than one location or that use 3PL. It is at the listing level and every listing only allows for 1 location to be entered. Sellers have to put something generic like "USA,USA" or "multiple locations" (an instant turn off to buyers as many dishonest overseas sellers do this) or enter location info for one location (usually the main warehouse or headquarters) and then have a disclaimer in the description somewhere that says they ship from multiple locations (buyers don't read and even if they do, it won't stop them from being disappointed if the delivery takes longer because it is shipping from further away).

eBay has announced beta testing for Multi-Location Shipping API. At first I thought this may be aimed at policing/enforcing eBay's rules about retail arbitrage, but my experience with triangle fraud has shown me just how huge retail arbitrage is on eBay (whether with stolen credit cards or not). I believe strictly enforcing those policies would likely lead to losses in GMV, active buyers/sellers, and/or active listings that would be significant enough to have to be explained publicly - and eBay isn't going to rock that boat if they can at all possibly avoid it. Given that and some of the details shown in the FAQ for Multi-Location API I don't think it's about enforcing existing policies, I think it is mostly about trying to improve delivery estimate calculations.

eBay says delivery estimates are based on "the time it takes you to pack and ship items (your handling time), and the delivery or courier services you offer." They have over the years expanded on that by saying they take "historical data" into consideration for handling time so if you usually ship in 1 day they will use 1 day regardless of what handling time you actually set. Notice that "the delivery and courier services you offer" is vague and does not explicitly indicate eBay is in any way using real time carrier specific info for this.

eBay offers a lot of options for shipping service/carrier. They also offer generic options like "economy" "standard" and "one day" - these are not tied to a specific carrier, you can use any carrier as long as it gets the package there in the estimated time frame. Importantly these generic options are very useful for sellers who choose to offer free or flat rate shipping as they will want the flexibility to use the most cost effective carrier/service combo for each particular sale based on weight and/or buyer location.

Given the complexity of options presented, the fact that some of those options don't even require the seller to specify a carrier/service, and the way the options display to sellers (with days in transit ranges) I believe it is very likely eBay does not use much if any direct input from the carriers. I suspect current delivery estimates heavily rely on a table or database of average transit times across zones/zip codes (possibly older/outdated info) plus eBay's internal algorithms - not API or other near real time/specific data from the carriers.

eBay understands that buyers are looking for shorter delivery times. In the past, especially under Wenig, the drive to accomplish that seemed to focus on using "carrot and stick" methods to try to change seller behavior to either handle orders faster and/or use faster shipping methods. The multi-location option and the new weekend handling option seem like maybe eBay (Jamie Iannone?) is starting to recognize there are things they could change to improve delivery time estimates by simply updating their operation to more accurately reflect the reality of what sellers are already doing without more of the carrot and stick routine.

If a seller is able to get a package into the carrier stream on a Saturday or Sunday, that is likely going to speed up delivery - and those sellers should get "credit" & benefit from that. If a seller has multiple locations or uses 3PL that allows them to ship from a closer location, that also is likely going to speed up delivery and again it is to everyone's benefit for that to be more accurately displayed.

Interestingly in the FAQ for Multi-location, they say you cannot use the generic shipping options and must pick a specific carrier because "the delivery estimates for multiple shipping locations uses the specific service-level agreement for the “ship from” and “ship to” locations from the carrier. If the listing does not have a specified carrier, the delivery estimate will continue to be calculated as it is now on eBay.com. Only USPS, FedEx, and UPS eBay-supported services currently qualify."

This along with the response from the chat that eBay is in "daily contact with carriers" to make handling time adjustments if needed confirms my suspicion that they aren't currently using APIs or automation for carrier specific/location specific info. Multi-location API support gives me hope that maybe they are moving away from the current outdated, often inaccurate model and toward embracing modern technology that can provide more accurate carrier specific ETAs. If this is a success for multi-location, maybe they will expand it.

Optional weekend handling should have been a positive thing for those who can benefit from it. The fact that many sellers had a negative reaction when it was announced shows how much damage past "leadership" has done to seller trust and confidence.

In my opinion Iannone hasn't done nearly enough fast enough publicly, but I am seeing little things here and there that give me a sliver of hope. I can understand maybe he can't make a big splashy announcement about some of this stuff because admitting that eBay is still technologically firmly stuck in the 20th century or admitting how bad Wenig and previous leadership let things get wouldn't look good or be in line with the image they want to portray. Maybe some of the "tech led reimagination" is taking place behind the scenes or there is infrastructure work that needs to be done first and he is trying to keep that low key.

I'm going to reserve credit until I see eBay actually being able to successfully execute some of this stuff, but I'm encouraged by optional weekend handling and multi-location shipping if for no other reason than it seems to be at least a slight shift from previous "stick and carrot, manipulate sellers into doing what we want" thinking.

dhbookds · ‎12-10-2020

Interesting information and speculation........

Just a personal observation....... In the last several wks, as many of us, more of my packages are seemingly late deliveries..... I use USPS exclusively since no other options are nearby in our rural area. I have 1 day handling but about 20% are probably same day mailing, depending on if the order comes in before we make a trek (2 blocks) to the local PO each day. Prior to Thanksgiving, I rarely had a late delivery.

In cross checking each estimated delivery date on the USPS site and the ebay order information since just after Thanksgiving.....I see that they match. Obviously, a very small sampling.... but that indicates to me Ebay isn't adjusting delivery times right now......at least for me.

luckythewinner · ‎12-10-2020

@valueaddedresource wrote:
Given the complexity of options presented, the fact that some of those options don't even require the seller to specify a carrier/service, and the way the options display to sellers (with days in transit ranges) I believe it is very likely eBay does not use much if any direct input from the carriers.

So at the risk of simplifying - "Because eBay cannot always use carrier specific information, I bet they don't even when they have it. "

Interesting speculation, but I don't agree with it.

valueaddedresource · ‎12-10-2020

@dhbookds - estimated delivery times are something I hadn't really looked deeply into before because honestly we get very few complaints or "where's my stuff?" messages, so I just kind of assumed the estimates being shown must be relatively accurate for us.

After digging deeper and using the order reports from eBay to get a "bigger picture" look, I'm finding that we must just have really patient and understanding buyers, or ones who are smart enough to look at tracking from carrier and ignore eBay, because eBay's estimates are all over the place.

Our business has a 1 day handling time on all listings and ships exclusively via UPS with ground service being the only option we offer on our eBay listings, so you would think both the carrier data and our historical data should be relatively consistent and easy to track averages.

If I sort the report for the last 90 days by state and look just at CA (opposite side of the country from us) I see estimates as low as 3 business days up to as high as 8 business days when both the carrier data and our historical data shows 5 business days average.

To my knowledge we have never had a UPS ground package make it across the country in 3 business days and I don't believe the UPS service guides or available API/automation options would give that estimate either.

It gets better, 8 orders in that report show 0 estimated days in transit, meaning the estimated delivery day is the same as the "ship by day". I see 1 or 2 day in transit estimates for AZ & CO, 3 Days for CA, OR, WA - all completely unrealistic even in the best of times.

The flip side of that is that in our own state eBay often shows 4 business days when ~90% of the state is 1 day with ground except for a small area that is 2 days. There was even 1 order shipping to the city we are located in that eBay showed estimated delivery in 5 business days!

So all of that plus many of the complaints I have seen from other sellers got me thinking and doing a deeper dive to try to figure out exactly where/how eBay gets these numbers and what they might be doing with some of the recent new feature announcements, which lead to all the thoughts above. 😊

It's pretty obvious that however they are arriving at these estimates currently is often inaccurate. There are technological ways to improve those estimates and I sincerely hope eBay is moving in that direction as quickly as possible.

valueaddedresource · ‎12-10-2020

@luckythewinner - that's cool, I'm open to competing speculations, different opinions, and the friendly exchange of ideas. 😊

The wording in the FAQ for the Multi-location API is what really got me thinking along those lines, but I could be wrong.

And just to clarify, as far as using carrier specific information, I meant something more than just generic zone charts. I'm sure they do have and probably use at least some of the zone based info from the carriers for their internal databases and algorithms.

I was referring to more advanced calculations via API or other automation that can pull carrier data at that time for the specific ship from and ship to locations, as referenced in the info about the new multi-location feature. That is what I don't think they are currently doing (at least on a large scale) and hope they are moving toward.

dhbookds · ‎12-10-2020

@valueaddedresource wrote:
@dhbookds - estimated delivery times are something I hadn't really looked deeply into before because honestly we get very few complaints or "where's my stuff?" messages, so I just kind of assumed the estimates being shown must be relatively accurate for us.

After digging deeper and using the order reports from eBay to get a "bigger picture" look, I'm finding that we must just have really patient and understanding buyers, or ones who are smart enough to look at tracking from carrier and ignore eBay, because eBay's estimates are all over the place.

Our business has a 1 day handling time on all listings and ships exclusively via UPS with ground service being the only option we offer on our eBay listings, so you would think both the carrier data and our historical data should be relatively consistent and easy to track averages.

If I sort the report for the last 90 days by state and look just at CA (opposite side of the country from us) I see estimates as low as 3 business days up to as high as 8 business days when both the carrier data and our historical data shows 5 business days average.

To my knowledge we have never had a UPS ground package make it across the country in 3 business days and I don't believe the UPS service guides or available API/automation options would give that estimate either.

It gets better, 8 orders in that report show 0 estimated days in transit, meaning the estimated delivery day is the same as the "ship by day". I see 1 or 2 day in transit estimates for AZ & CO, 3 Days for CA, OR, WA - all completely unrealistic even in the best of times.

The flip side of that is that in our own state eBay often shows 4 business days when ~90% of the state is 1 day with ground except for a small area that is 2 days. There was even 1 order shipping to the city we are located in that eBay showed estimated delivery in 5 business days!

So all of that plus many of the complaints I have seen from other sellers got me thinking and doing a deeper dive to try to figure out exactly where/how eBay gets these numbers and what they might be doing with some of the recent new feature announcements, which lead to all the thoughts above. 😊

It's pretty obvious that however they are arriving at these estimates currently is often inaccurate. There are technological ways to improve those estimates and I sincerely hope eBay is moving in that direction as quickly as possible.

Well, obvious that we are comparing apples to oranges......you don't apparently use USPS and I don't use the other carriers......

All I was trying to say was that ebay is using/or it's algorithms are extrapolating the same estimate delivery times as USPS, as of now for me.......

As an aside.......previous to this screw up with USPS, it was usual for us in rural PA to get delivery to the buyer door in 3 days using USPS priority service.......a fact I found amazing and checked numerous times.

valueaddedresource · ‎12-10-2020

@dhbookds wrote:
@valueaddedresource wrote:
@dhbookds - estimated delivery times are something I hadn't really looked deeply into before because honestly we get very few complaints or "where's my stuff?" messages, so I just kind of assumed the estimates being shown must be relatively accurate for us.

After digging deeper and using the order reports from eBay to get a "bigger picture" look, I'm finding that we must just have really patient and understanding buyers, or ones who are smart enough to look at tracking from carrier and ignore eBay, because eBay's estimates are all over the place.

Our business has a 1 day handling time on all listings and ships exclusively via UPS with ground service being the only option we offer on our eBay listings, so you would think both the carrier data and our historical data should be relatively consistent and easy to track averages.

If I sort the report for the last 90 days by state and look just at CA (opposite side of the country from us) I see estimates as low as 3 business days up to as high as 8 business days when both the carrier data and our historical data shows 5 business days average.

To my knowledge we have never had a UPS ground package make it across the country in 3 business days and I don't believe the UPS service guides or available API/automation options would give that estimate either.

It gets better, 8 orders in that report show 0 estimated days in transit, meaning the estimated delivery day is the same as the "ship by day". I see 1 or 2 day in transit estimates for AZ & CO, 3 Days for CA, OR, WA - all completely unrealistic even in the best of times.

The flip side of that is that in our own state eBay often shows 4 business days when ~90% of the state is 1 day with ground except for a small area that is 2 days. There was even 1 order shipping to the city we are located in that eBay showed estimated delivery in 5 business days!

So all of that plus many of the complaints I have seen from other sellers got me thinking and doing a deeper dive to try to figure out exactly where/how eBay gets these numbers and what they might be doing with some of the recent new feature announcements, which lead to all the thoughts above. 😊

It's pretty obvious that however they are arriving at these estimates currently is often inaccurate. There are technological ways to improve those estimates and I sincerely hope eBay is moving in that direction as quickly as possible.
Well, obvious that we are comparing apples to oranges......you don't apparently use USPS and I don't use the other carriers......

All I was trying to say was that ebay is using/or it's algorithms are extrapolating the same estimate delivery times as USPS, as of now for me.......

As an aside.......previous to this screw up with USPS, it was usual for us in rural PA to get delivery to the buyer door in 3 days using USPS priority service.......a fact I found amazing and check it numerous times.

@dhbookds - Thanks, that's good info to have.

eBay definitely isn't inaccurate all the time. I do see quite a few that are in line with carrier data and historical data and like I said, we rarely get complaints (whether that is because of what eBay displays to buyers or not, I don't know).

Where it really stood out to me was pulling the 90 day order report, sorting by state, and seeing a pretty wide range of estimates - especially some that could not be accurate for UPS ground service (1 day to AZ, 0 days to MO, etc).

I don't know why eBay would continue with a proprietary algorithm based method of calculating these estimates when A.) it clearly does not produce accurate results in some cases and B.) there exist better technological ways to calculate these things more accurately and with less effort.

Past leadership didn't seem to show much interest in addressing some of the legacy tech issues that may be holding eBay back. Iannone has at least been paying lip service to it with his "tech led reimagination." It seems to me like estimated delivery time is one area they are working on improving with these recently announced features and if so, I'll give Iannone a little credit for that if they are able to execute it well.