Walmart's Announcement

[meme6253]

Walmart announced yesterday that they expect very slow sales for 2025, That sent the stock market into a panic & we should all take that with Great Concern, If the country's #1 retailer is predicting that we could be looking at some very dire times, I mentioned this type of thing happening way before the elections took place & i was told on this board that i was over-reacting & some even mocked & ridiculed, (you know how this board can be), Well now i can say I told you so!

[chapeau-noir]

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@fashunu4eeuh wrote:

“  I don't know that there's much a of a "trend" here”

My point exactly. @my-cottage-books-and-antiques Outside of this, have not seen any credible overall predictions of poor retail sales ahead for 2025. In fact i’d say there is confidence in better days ahead, not dire.

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I'm seeing lessening confidence and greater caution, and any confidence in 'better days' is slowly draining away. The honeymoon appears to have ended in a big tantrum. I do NOT, however, see predictions for a dire forecast, just an uncertain one - well, uncertainty is kind of the name of the game in retail, particularly in an over-expanded landscape with changing retail habits. And there are as many opinions about the economy as there are people who have backsides.

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques  - Walmart is indeed aiming for a higher income bracket buyer. But one funny thing they did (well, I thought it was funny as he11), is come out with the "Wirken", a knock-off of the Hermes Birkin bag, and reading the comments from the Hermes rep they're making a not-very-convincing show of pretending that "it's fine" and "how cute".

[meme6253]

What you consider entertaining now, You will not consider entertaining when & if it hits home for you or someone you know, That's when it stops being funny.

[meme6253]

That's true not all products will have tariffs, But the total effect on everything will play a Huge part in how consumers will spend.

[chapeau-noir]

It's not just finished products, it's the imported components that go into almost everything manufactured here, as well.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@chapeau-noir The Wirkin was just a happy accident...a third party seller I think was selling the bag, and buyers dubbed it the Wirkin.

Over the last few years, while there was a lot of complaining about inflation, the American consumer continued to spend...but what economists discovered is what kept retail going was largely the upper end consumer...people with a lot of discretionary income kept spending, and there are enough of those folks to make up for the many people who aren't in that cohort.

This is one reason companies like ebay and WalMart...often thought of as "bargain" locales...have been so focused on the upper end. One concern I have is: as more and more retail companies focus on appealing to the well to do, do we end up with a retail atmosphere that resembles the housing market? Contractors chasing after the McMansion crowd, and fewer people building "average' housing stock?  

The uncertainty isn't just caused by the tariff situation, there are a lot of things making for an uncertain business climate, including rapid technological change.

We are indeed living in interesting times.

[chariot_badges]

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@fashunu4eeuh wrote:

If other top ten retailers made similar announcements, that would be more of a trend to bank on. 

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Like Walgreens, Kohls, Advanced Auto Parts, JoAnn Fabrics, Macy's, Big Lots, CVS, Family Dollar, 7-11, Rite Aid, 99 Cent Store.  Office Depot, Bath & Body Works.   

Probably the most telling and concerning is American Freight.  

That's a lot of stores (jobs), and in addition, the federal gov't is laying off people who don't want to work or don't have enough to do ... that is expected to be about 400,000 jobs.

An increase of job loss will result in a decrease in interest rates, and this will be good for inflation.

I invite DOGE to California.   There is billion$ here to pick up in savings.   Where'd all that "high-speed rail" money go?  $27 Billion.   TWENTY-SEVEN BILLION dollars and not one yard of railway laid.   Where's the money?

Short term?

We're going off road.   Buckle up. 

I see a trend.

You don't?

[johnrj1226]

One thing about Walmart that  has been going on for several years. is they  have been eliminating the Great Value lines and only offer Name Brands - most commonly in the Grocery   sections.  People are shopping other stores like,  Kroger, Ingles and then there is a Aldi.  Our  Kroger and Aldi  aisle are slammed. Peeps are buying store  brands stuff to make their  dollar go a bit  father.  Walmart used to make about 6.5 GP before taxes, in recent  years in the neighborhood of 3.5% -consumer and employee theft (  Walmart guesstimates employees account   40%  of all theft (aka shrinkage)  theft  has gone up too by twice as much  slow but surely stores like Dollar Tree, Dollar General took a decent  bite out of Walmart  sales /profits

[toomuchstuffagain35]

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@chariot_badges wrote:

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@fashunu4eeuh wrote:

If other top ten retailers made similar announcements, that would be more of a trend to bank on. 

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Like Walgreens, Kohls, Advanced Auto Parts, JoAnn Fabrics, Macy's, Big Lots, CVS, Family Dollar, 7-11, Rite Aid, 99 Cent Store.  Office Depot, Bath & Body Works.   

Probably the most telling and concerning is American Freight.  

That's a lot of stores (jobs), and in addition, the federal gov't is laying off people who don't want to work or don't have enough to do ... that is expected to be about 400,000 jobs.

An increase of job loss will result in a decrease in interest rates, and this will be good for inflation.

I invite DOGE to California.   There is billion$ here to pick up in savings.   Where'd all that "high-speed rail" money go?  $27 Billion.   TWENTY-SEVEN BILLION dollars and not one yard of railway laid.   Where's the money?

Short term?

We're going off road.   Buckle up. 

I see a trend.

You don't?

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I believe Jo-Ann's is closing their stores. They're certainly having 'liquidation sales' (such as they are).

[mam98031]

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@meme6253 wrote:

That's true not all products will have tariffs, But the total effect on everything will play a Huge part in how consumers will spend.

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You are suggesting that other prices of items, not related to tariffs, will go up too?  Why would things supplied for USA businesses have price increases related to tariffs?  Oh wait, maybe some of the supplies these companies use to product their products come from other companies that are subject to tariffs!  While it wouldn't affect "everything", I see your point that it would go beyond items directly related to tariffs.  😍

[mam98031]

"...the federal gov't is laying off people who don't want to work or don't have enough to do ... that is expected to be about 400,000 jobs."

I'm not sure that is the criteria they are using to lay people off.  If that were true, they would not have made the mistakes they did regarding our Nuclear weapons and the staff that keeps them safe.  The people they  fired at the CDC, many of them they are trying to bring back because they are essential employees.  The National Park service, Dept of Energy, HHS, Dept of Agriculture, Dept of Veterans and more are working to bring BACK many of the employees that DOGE fired for no cause as they are critical employees for these Departments.  

The assumption that people that work from home are not working or have no value is beyond ridiculous.  With the proper guidelines and rails need to be in place to avoid misuse, having employees that work from home can SAVE a huge chunk of money otherwise spent on office space, furniture, electricity, etc.  Blanket statements are rarely ever correct.  Many states and Corporations across our great nation employ work from home people quite successfully.

[fbusoni]

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@lakefor94 wrote:

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A slower growth outlook is not a sky is falling event as the #1 fear monger believes. 

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Correct, as usual.

The language used in these sorts of announcements is carefully crafted, not unlike the periodic statements from the Federal Reserve.

Rather than getting one's exercise by jumping to conclusions, I recommend learning how to understand and interpret financial announcements of this sort.   

[meme6253]

Oh yeah components also play a huge part, That is especially going to hit electronics in a Huge way, People could be paying through the nose for the latest tech items, If they will pay.

[meme6253]

Sounds like Trumps fence, where did that go?, It barely got off the ground.

[meme6253]

No doubt they took revenue away from Walmart, someone is constantly trying for a piece of the pie.

[fbusoni]

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@chariot_badges wrote:

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the federal gov't is laying off people who don't want to work or don't have enough to do ... that is expected to be about 400,000 jobs.

I see a trend.

You don't?

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This is the trend that I see:

After mass layoffs, some federal agencies are trying to bring employees back

Meantime, every single federal worker who is put on administrative leave will continue to receive their paycheck, retirement and health insurance benefits for the indefinite future... and they thank you for your tax dollars.

Why?  Because that's the law.  And it will not be overturned because if the occupant of the White House can fire federal workers at will, then all the services that American citizens rely on are at risk because of the whims of one person -- and NO ONE  serving on Congress wants to deal with that fallout.

I worked for the executive branch for more than 4 decades and believe me, the waste is colossal.  

But there are ways of addressing the waste and abuse in constructive ways... that will NOT imperil productive federal workers who are currently being recalled BACK to the office; that will not compel the USG to pay the salaries of workers who have been told to stay home; and which will not leave egg on the face of those currently in charge (in the form of dozens of lawsuits wending their way through the courts).

This whole "executive order" charade serves one purpose: a bright, shiny object to distract the base from the fact that it, above all, will soon be experiencing inflation, economic stagnation, and the loss of Medicaid.  

The base does not know any better, of course, so they are lapping up the theatrics currently underway inside Washington DC.   Especially the chainsaw bit.  

I don't envy them.