The fault is not in the (eBay’s) stars, but in ourselves.

[richard1rst]

(And by “ourselves” I mean the whole human condition, not any one person individually)

I am constantly amazed at the number of posts that seem to think it is somehow eBay’s doing, alone, that sales suddenly tanked or rose. “Throttling” was the big fad for a while but it seems to have given way to “item specifics”, “1099K”s and “Winter updates”.

eBay does not exist in a vacuum. It may be an identifiable corporation but the buyers and sellers are real people living in a real world. Their buying and selling decisions are influenced by what happens “OUT THERE”, not here.

Their individual decisions are based on whether or not there is the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, or a shortage of goods due to the supply chain, or the threat of an overreaction by the government to a truckers strike, or the loss of a job due to a mask mandate, or being jailed for giving the school board a hard time, or a thousand times thousand other individual events from the international to the mundane.

All of the above, and then some, direct Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand.

There is no identifiable reason (and a pointless quest to seek one out) when a large portion of 7 1/2 Billion people suddenly turn 1 degree “this” way instead of 1 degree “that” way.

You will have as much luck getting an answer to that as asking yourself “why did the guy 6 cars ahead of me suddenly change lanes?”

Some questions are just not answerable.

[chapeau-noir]

But still, @richard1rst is right. eBay sure doesn't have Sole Power over what happens here - it's just a marketplace amongst many marketplaces, subject to larger forces.

[inhawaii]

---

@richard1rst wrote:

(And by “ourselves” I mean the whole human condition, not any one person individually)

I am constantly amazed at the number of posts that seem to think it is somehow eBay’s doing, alone, that sales suddenly tanked or rose. “Throttling” was the big fad for a while but it seems to have given way to “item specifics”, “1099K”s and “Winter updates”.

eBay does not exist in a vacuum. It may be an identifiable corporation but the buyers and sellers are real people living in a real world. Their buying and selling decisions are influenced by what happens “OUT THERE”, not here.

Their individual decisions are based on whether or not there is the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, or a shortage of goods due to the supply chain, or the threat of an overreaction by the government to a truckers strike, or the loss of a job due to a mask mandate, or being jailed for giving the school board a hard time, or a thousand times thousand other individual events from the international to the mundane.

All of the above, and then some, direct Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand.

There is no identifiable reason (and a pointless quest to seek one out) when a large portion of 7 1/2 Billion people suddenly turn 1 degree “this” way instead of 1 degree “that” way.

You will have as much luck getting an answer to that as asking yourself “why did the guy 6 cars ahead of me suddenly change lanes?”

Some questions are just not answerable.

---

I love your post.  I think we are long-lost brothers.   😉

[gracieallen01]

However, you seem to ignore that ebay is run by PEOPLE, too.  And, each person, each and every one, has an agenda - sort of like the old TV show that started out , 'There are 2 milllion stories in the Naked City'.  There are 7 1/2 billion stories in the world and quite a few exist, with their own scripts and actors, at and around ebay.  ebay is not without their faults and responsibilities - just like the rest of us.

(personal opinion - your mileage may vary)

[moondogblues]

"Not sure where this is going......I could have used the inflation example except in that case one person (a President) can do something about it (even though the consequences might not be good in the long term)."

I thought only the Federal Reserve had the power to address inflation.  By lowering/raising interest rates.  Not the President.

[richard1rst]

---

@moondogblues wrote:

"Not sure where this is going......I could have used the inflation example except in that case one person (a President) can do something about it (even though the consequences might not be good in the long term)."

I thought only the Federal Reserve had the power to address inflation.  By lowering/raising interest rates.  Not the President.

---

Well The Fed has the LEGAL power and responsible to address inflationary problems.

But the classical definition of inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods". So when a  governmental program results in a loss of jobs or productivity (i.e too few goods) OR an influx of excessive spending, debt or money printing (i.e. too much money) then inflation happens without the Fed being able to do much about it. And as Truman famously noted as it relates to the presidency "The buck stops here".

So, yes, the president is capable of creating inflation, The Fed notwithstanding.

[dirk12955]

Tagging on:    Addressing the roller coaster ride that happens on ebay,   and the why and why not of what affects the behavior of the buying (or not buying) customer.

Something as simple as the weather or what's on TV can affect our sales and traffic.     

[richard1rst]

---

@gracieallen01 wrote:

However, you seem to ignore that ebay is run by PEOPLE, too.  And, each person, each and every one, has an agenda - sort of like the old TV show that started out , 'There are 2 milllion stories in the Naked City'.  There are 7 1/2 billion stories in the world and quite a few exist, with their own scripts and actors, at and around ebay.  ebay is not without their faults and responsibilities - just like the rest of us.

(personal opinion - your mileage may vary)

---

But you have actually proven my point.

The basic theory of the Invisible Hand is that the each member of the world's population makes individual decisions based on what they believe is their own best interest generally without regard to what is best for anyone else. What's best for you is your decision to make - not mine. All of those independent and individual decisions act like an Invisible Hand to move events in a particular direction. A direction that no one person or group of people could possibly control on their own. 

A previous poster pointed out, correctly, that it does always work for the best, citing the chaos of the tulip bulb speculation in Holland. But even there that was the result of individual decisions not central planning. They just happened to have been bad decisions. Adam Smith never said that the invisible hand was always right. Only that it existed.

The example I like to use is a highway filled with cars all moving along at 70 MPG or so - bumper to bumper only side by said (My thanks to Chuck Berry for that line). No one person could possible control all those cars simultaneously and get each to where it wants to go. The only way the highway system works is that each driver acts in their own best interest and, as such, everyone generally gets to where they want to go. Yes, there is the occasional accident due to  an occasional misjudgement. But imagine the mess if a single controller makes a misjudgement.

[johnrj1226]

When I think  of inflation and recessions I recall and  lived thru  national  recessions of 1971 thru 1981 - we had three recessions during that period and inflation rates that were unbelievable - mortgage rates of 16% and higher, interest rate so high  my 12 yo daughter was getting 10% interest on her pass book savings account, cost of living  adjustment  in pay checks were common place, yep prices of homes sky rocketed and fell like a rock over night.  Also  lived thru a major regional recession time period ('82 to '85) during the oil bust in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico regions - S & Ls closed, people lost their  high paying oil jobs w/ mega benefits, lost their homes when  Adjustable Rate Mortgages high interest rates kicked in.  Knew  people that simply walked away from their mortgage (they were up side down on their house value by 50 drop in market value) and bought another home all at the same time at a lower fix rate.  it was sad to see it happen.  But in time things slowly turned around.

Presidential policies can in fact impact  inflation + or - .   e.g.  when the Keystone  Pipeline was shutdown - crude oil prices jumped - gasoline  jump about 1 buck a gallon in a very short time period.  That impacted the  cost of many things like OTR, by rail, by air plane delivery costs of food, furniture , etc.  Those spandex, and yoga pants are made synthetics (polyester etc, etc - they  are made from a derivative of crude oil the  cost of TAJ went up and you car  has lots of plastic components from the  bumpers, to dashboard, seats.  The President can control the cost of crude oil by using crude  stored in  the Strategic Federal Oil Reserve.

Just  my viewpoint based on where I have been, what I've done and what I have experienced.  History and personal experiences is always a good teacher.

[forward-motion]

@richard1rst 

Their buying and selling decisions are influenced by what happens “OUT THERE”, not here.

I Agree 100%. I have been selling used automotive parts on eBay for more than a decade now. It has been a little side thing that I have done for extra cash. But when covid hit and people quit working, manufactures shut down things became hard to get, automotive parts being one of them. So, the alternative was used parts. I was laid off in 2020 for three months due to covid and the lack of work. I got busy selling on eBay. 2020 ended up being my best year ever. So, I stepped up my game. Listing more than I ever did. 2021 was over $10,000 better than 2020. I was selling international almost as much as domestic. All of this increase in my sales was a direct reaction to what happened "OUT THERE. 

[chapeau-noir]

The tulip craze is interesting because not only did it prompt the development of the futures market, but historians suspect that an outbreak of the bubonic plague propelled investors into a sort of fatalistic hysteria.  Speculative buying reached ridiculous proportions with no real tangible property transferred.  A lot of this reminds me of NFTs possibly getting a nudge from a pandemic.  'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' (Charles Mackay) makes good reading on the subject, particularly since we seem to be suffering the real life version of it right now - particularly the 'delusions' bit.

[sew_fastenating]

Is this the Ebay's Seller's Masterclass thread?

High level convo with no answers to anything.

[vintagecraze50]

I REMEMBER  that time very well. The interest rates on homes were outrageous.

[baantiques]

Nah, throttling is still a thing.  

A week ago I was talking to the Mrs and made a prediction as to what my sales would be for the next week.  It was based on how much in sales were dropping off the first week in the rolling 30 day reporting period.  

I was off by about $50 on $1100 in sales.  This is not the first time.   I've been doing this a while and the hidden limits and throttling are not really all that hidden.  You get a certain allotment for monthly sales and as long as you post regularly and avoid other things that will make your sales drop, you will be somewhere near that amount.  It makes predicting weekly sales easy.

I should have a great week coming up, probably around $2000

[coastaltechsolution]

I had to chime in

<sarcasm> 

Anyone notice that since Managed Payments kicked in inflation started to rise?

</End Sarcasm> 

[penguins_dont_fly]

Just tagging in on the end here. This thread is a refreshing change of pace 🙂 Thank you all 🙂

If anybody wants an introduction to global economics (for non economists) I would like to recommend the Netflix series "This Giant Beast that is the Global Economy".

Kal Penn is the host and it is instructive while still being enjoyable.