Prediction = eBay will lose close to 7 Million Sellers due to GTC Change..

[crownsfieldcellular]

Well, I think it's official.  I've stated before on the boards numerous times that the GTC change on all BIN listings is going to put me out of business..And unfortunately?  Looking at my sales numbers, I am 99% sure I am right. 

Because my one off inventory is no longer moving on a weekly basis?  My business is dead, because I can no longer go out using my sales capital to buy more inventory.  It's that simple. 

And I'm actually AFRAID to buy more now to sell on here, because I see that nothing is selling.  So how can I justify buying more and sinking more money into ebay inventory which is simply not going to move anymore? 

I can't = I am going to have to close my eBay business eventually, because this business model is no longer sustainable in anyway..

Right now?  I know for a fact that are literally MILLIONS of sellers like myself, that relied on the Shorter Term BIN listings to move their merchandise...And I'm not guessing this..I see post after post, after post, after post that are saying EXACTLY what I am..That this has destroyed their sales, and is going to put them out...And these are just the very, very few that come on these boards (which is almost no one comparatively)..

I know also 1 Million percent that eBay has been FLOODED with calls from sellers - has to be hundreds and thousands of calls by now (if not millions of calls) protesting this..because when I call and protest now, I can tell they have heard what I am saying ad naseum...Every rep I speak to, I know has heard and dealt with these complaints now, constantly..

Which makes sense..because when the platform you TRUST and built your business on?  Does something so catastrophic, that it actually PUTS YOU OUT OF BUSINESS??  I think it goes without saying that you are going to call, and call repeatedly...

Ebay has 25 million sellers (at least they claim this)..By my estimation about 30% of those sellers or so are like me..Selling one off collectibles, phones, unique items (can be anything really), which they do not have "long tail" inventory of...

Therefore the GTC option not only is useless for us?  It is a huge, horrendous detriment to us, and is going to drive us either off eBay?  Or out of business completely..Whichever comes first (but it will be one or the other, no question)

So, let's say that its only 25% of us out of the 25,000,000 for arguments sake..That's 6.25 Million sellers round about. 

Now, I know when I was doing well on here (which ended EXACTLY one day after the GTC change took place), I was paying about $1000 a month in fees.  Thats me, that might be a very high compared to others, I dont know..

To be fair?  Let's use a much, much lower number..Let's say out of that 6.25 Million?  They are all paying an average of $500 a YEAR in fees, call it Final Value Fees only (again just for the sake of this example)...

Let's say eBay is "successful" at what they are doing, in putting this 25% of it's sellers out of business and driving us (and ACTUALLY FORCING us to leave the site, because we can no longer get sales on here at all) off the site.. 

Let's assume they are going to be successful in getting rid of us, effectively "trimming" 25% of their "sales force"...

When you multiply 6.25 Million by 500?  The projected loss of revenue is approximately $3,125,000,000  per YEAR..In lost revenue to eBay...that's over 3 BILLION, with a B they stand to lose..

Now considering that ebay's revenue for all of 2018 was 10.7 Billion (according to them)?...When all of these sellers either walk, or are forced off the site, or simply go out of business on ebay and just cant sell here anymore, because they've been wiped out? 

This means eBay is projected to slash over 30% of its revenue by doing what they are doing, and refusing to EVEN LISTEN to the 25% of us who are SCREAMING AT THEM TO CHANGE THIS BACK...

Now my numbers are far from definitive of course..I am willing to bet that we the 6.25 million who are being destroyed by this change? 

Are probably paying a hell of alot more than $500 a year in Final Value Fees...I know personally I was lined up to pay almost $12,000 by the end of this year or more...

So...I dont know what these people are trying to accomplish here exactly?  But I hope for their sakes they have a REAL GOOD PLAN IN PLACE to replace this revenue they are going to lose. 

I guess maybe they have a absolutely insane influx of China sellers waiting in the wings, that they are betting are going to replace the 6.25 Million American sellers somehow that are walking, or going to simply die on this site..

It's either that?  Or this is finally going to be the move that wipes eBay out for good, along with millions of others they are going to take down with them..

And if that happens?  After what they just did to me and my business, and millions of other people's businesses on here?  Hard working, long time, GOOD sellers?  Who built their businesses up for YEARS on here? 

All of the families they are going to destroy, and all the devastation they are going to cause to all of us?  While pretending to blissfully not give a **bleep**?  And trying to placate us with corporate "platitudes"??

I say they will then ultimately get what they deserve, and honestly at this point?  It can't happen soon enough to them.

Might be time to smarten UP ebay, and start LISTENING to your SELLERS (CUSTOMERS), before it is WAYYYYY too late...

That time has possibly already come..

[mam98031]

25 Million active sellers is the world wide number.  I believe the number of US active sellers 2016 or 2017 was 6.7 million.

[crownsfieldcellular]

---

@mam98031 wrote:

25 Million active sellers is the world wide number.  I believe the number of US active sellers 2016 or 2017 was 6.7 million.

---

Fair enough..But I can't possibly see how the GTC change wont be affecting 25% of sellers across the board worldwide..Unless all the other international sellers on eBay are all selling long tail inventory, and there are no other one off sellers in the world..

I find that to be very Highly unlikely..Unless your statement to me is going to be that the other 18 million sellers eBay has are all in china?  I looked but I was unable to get any numbers on how many sellers on eBay are actually located in China..I don't think its 18 million though, I doubt that..

So the only part of my post that I then retract/ or edit would be the statement about eBay hopefully having enough China Sellers to replace all the small "American" sellers they are going to lose..Take the word "American" out of the post, and I stand by the full post and prediction..

If we want to put this in perspective then from an American standpoint only?  They stand to lose 1.75 Million AMERICAN sellers then alone..You seem very intelligent, So I'll leave you to run the mathematics on the revenue loss in America by itself if this comes to pass..

Thanks for your input

[coolections]

Since there is NOTHING in the world better than Ebay I believe your prediction is wrong. For every one of you that leave another will come.

[johnrj1226]

Exactly how will you ever factually validate you are spot on or otherwise?  You clearly claim you are 99% certain you are on target so  it shouldn't be too hard.

[extrememobility]

The lack of seller protection from fraudulent Buyers will definitely add to your figures"

[lacemaker3]

---

@crownsfieldcellular wrote:

Well, I think it's official.  I've stated before on the boards numerous times that the GTC change on all BIN listings is going to put me out of business..And unfortunately?  Looking at my sales numbers, I am 99% sure I am right. 

Because my one off inventory is no longer moving on a weekly basis?  My business is dead, because I can no longer go out using my sales capital to buy more inventory.  It's that simple. 

...

---

@crownsfieldcellular,

I looked at your sales for the last 3 months, and I can't see anything in your  pattern of sales that changed on Mar 18, 2019 when the new and relistings became GTC.

Actually, I see that last week, Apr 1 - 7, was your second-best week of sales since January, based on # amount sold. It was your third-best week of the 12 weeks I could see data for (not including partial weeks).

Week		                Sales	
from	        to	        #	 Total
1/14/2019	1/20/2019	21	 $11,183.83 
1/21/2019	1/27/2019	10	 $ 3,220.92 
1/28/2019	2/3/2019	1	 $   754.99 
2/4/2019	2/10/2019	1	 $   599.99 
2/11/2019	2/17/2019	10	 $ 4,256.90 
2/18/2019	2/24/2019	9	 $ 4,218.93 
2/25/2019	3/3/2019	14	 $ 8,792.87 
3/4/2019	3/10/2019	2	 $ 1,475.98 
3/11/2019	3/17/2019	0	 $        -   
3/18/2019	3/24/2019	4	 $ 2,648.96 
3/25/2019	3/31/2019	7	 $ 2,489.93 
4/1/2019	4/7/2019	8	 $ 4,587.92 

[myangelandmyprincess]

My predictions is sellers will grow accustomed to it and learn to work with the change.   We always do 

[flo_mingo]

Might be time to smarten UP ebay, and start LISTENING to your SELLERS (CUSTOMERS), before it is WAYYYYY too late...

That time has possibly already come..

---

Ebay podcasts have been silent on this matter as well as the weekly chats. I encourage people from the boards to voice their concerns on this weeks Weekly chat at 1100 AM Pacific Time. 

[thepatchmasters]

Agreed. And I love the snide comments. I like all your comments. I also am a snarky person at heart. 

Anyway my sales have tanked. I am / was a 3 day lister. But I drastically dropped prices because of this stupid new policy and have started listing on other platforms. 

Example. Yesterday I listed 4 Bose speakers on FB marketplace and they sold within a day for 90$. When I marked it as sold I had 520 views. In one freaking day. No joke. I was floored. I had the same listing on scambay since GTC came into effect and had a total of 15 views. Anyway I didn't have to ship and actually felt good about the sale because I don't have to worry about returns, fees, and shipping. Then same day I sold a ps2 for 60$. Same exuberant feeling. 

Now the only problem is that not everything I sell sells on there. 

Also trying out Mercari. It's structure is soooooo good. The shipping is good over there too. If everyone went over there I think over time it would be the new place to sell. Unfortunately it has a long way to go with brand recognition.

Anyway dude. Keep up the good posts. You speak truth.

[myangelandmyprincess]

There are also many things that sell better locally and doesn't necessarily show gtc being the issue 

[hioctane62]

520 views there vs. 15 views here. To me that tells us where the buyers AREN'T.

[johnrj1226]

@lacemaker3

 How did you come by  this info?   If it is spot on the OP might want to use your  information source .

[myangelandmyprincess]

---

@hioctane62 wrote:

520 views there vs. 15 views here. To me that tells us where the buyers AREN'T.

---

When selling locally there is usually much less of the same item.   There is a lot of ps2s on eBay right now to compete with I imagine there was much less on the local Facebook marketplace.  How many speakers like that are on eBay vs how many on the marketplace?    With the speakers I can see that being something that would sell more locally if they are a heavier item too.  Where the buyers are is the only factor, good til cancelled isn't the only factor, we can't base how well good til cancelled does based these items.  There are many factors.   

[thepatchmasters]

Agreed. The ps2 had right at 200 views. I've had systems sell with 4 and 500 views and multiple offers. I stopped selling consoles on a few years ago after several returns cause losers don't know what they are buying apparently. 

Anyway I've sold everything I've ever put on FB. And the feeling of cash in hand and no fees / returns feel amazing. 

Again unfortunately one off video games are harder to sell there for a profit. 

Broken systems in a lot do well for me there also. And no shipping / returns because it's TOO broken.

Speaking of selling on FB, I'm about to list more stuff today. It's my new focus. Ebay has taken a backseat.