@nessas_nook wrote:
I agree the meltdown may not be far off.
I am posting this because I have been slammed whenever I have mentioned that the ebay may not be doing as well as they claim. Quarterly reports are always the first to be thrown at you. However, I would recommend that if anyone is thinking of investing (and sellers are investing) in the company they do some research. Start with researching ebay layoffs. See what employees are saying about what is going on in the company (former and current). Make up your own mind whether "streamlining and restructuring" is having a short term effect on quarterly numbers to make ebay look as if it is growing, if it is a sign of a company in trouble, or that ebay is actually growing.
I'll probably get slammed again for posting this from the "usual suspects" as I call them. I believe in people making informed decisions, making up their own minds, and not being belittled because they have a point of view.
@nessas_nook
If you notice the only numbers that Ebay throws out with all the fanfare is the GMV which is the Gross sales not including returns or the 15% sale discounts that Ebay classifies as marketing or advertising. That number is also NOT audited so Ebay can say whatever number they want, especially since Sellers Hub includes shipping AND SALES TAX as part of your gross Sales. So every year when shipping costs go up, so does Ebays GMV reported to Wall Street.
When the audited Financial Statements come out they are a much more reflective representation of where Ebay stands, but those rarely get discussed because Ebay would have a lot of explaining to do as to why these numbers are so much lower than what is quickly reported to Wall Street. If you ever want to get a true picture of what is happening with a company, look at their Audited Financial Statements (which are usually readily available online), but also check out the 10Q (Quarterly) and 10K (annually) reports that they file with the SEC as they are extremely informative and actually advertise what Ebays dreams for the future are as they must disclose what the plans and goals for the company are going forward. These reports are some great fictional reading most of the time, but you can actually pick up some useful information as to what Ebay is really doing.
Ebay is investing heavily in their partnerships with the Chinese Government in manufacturing facilities and preparing certain Chinese cities which have strategic placement for faster and quicker shipping to other countries. Ebay hopes this is how they will be able to replace the US sellers as they goods that are produced are cheap and knockoffs of US products with no royalties paid for patents or anything else. Since these items are shipped individually directly to the customer most of this will also slip through the cracks with the new tarrifs as they are not containers full of product that state what they really are. Much of this will be Epacket items or other smaller packaged items that never wind up getting opened and tracked like the containers do. Ebay's CEO has continually stated that China is Ebays future and that is exactly how this company is now run, with US sellers paying for things until Ebay no longer needs them. But shipping costs from China will be changing soon and once all the US sellers are gone Ebay will need the Chinese to raise their prices in order for them to survive and that is when the Chinese sales will tank as there will no longer be the cheap knock offs sitting around, but overpriced knock offs being sold to keep Ebay alive and well or the Chinese investment in this quickly goes down the drain.
It is difficult to find out much current information about these partnerships and the investments that Ebay is making but every once in awhile new information surfaces showing that Ebay is still on track with their Chinese partnerships. I am not speaking about the older 2014-2015 articles but recent articles from 2017-2018 that manage to surface once in awhile, but overall Ebay keeps those announcements quiet as they do not want that information going public yet. Ebay used to have $9.5 billion in cash sitting offshore, but that amount is now down to $5.0 billion. Any thoughts on where that money has gone to? I will give you a hint, its not the cost of Sellers Hub by a long shot as Ebay is doing that on the Cheap with offshore companies hired to design the clunky program. The old adage that you get what you pay for continues to ring true with this new platform. Hopefully there is still enough information out there for the public to learn about the True Ebay.
