eBay's Downfall?

[dugoldstuff]

Very interesting article. I bolded /redded the best parts:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4188922-ebay-stagnation-mode

eBay: In Stagnation Mode

Jul. 21, 2018 3:18 PM ET

eBay's second-quarter earnings report fell heavily short of analyst expectations, with revenue growth dimming to 9% y/y (from 12% y/y last quarter). The company's below-consensus guidance caused the stock to take its biggest hit. GMV growth in the U.S. also showed its weakest growth rate since a year ago, while the volume of sold items stayed flat. Margins also showed a worrying contraction.

Despite all the signals that keep pointing to its demise, eBay (EBAY), the one-time e-commerce wunderkind, continues to plod forward as if it was still a giant of the internet. Like last quarter's earnings release, eBay's Q2 post showed a company that is continually unable to meet analysts' targets as the company fails to accelerate the process of bringing new buyers to its platform.

Rightly so, eBay has been one of the worst-performing of the large-cap internet stocks all year, despite general enthusiasm for the e-commerce space. Companies like Etsy (ETSY) and Stitch Fix (SFIX) that were earlier pegged as losers, for example, have shot up meaningfully in the first half of 2018, as has perpetual giant Amazon.com (AMZN). eBay, however, seems incapable of reversing its slow decline. Year to date, the stock is down nearly 10%.

Yet, I believe the shares have further to fall. Activity on eBay seems to simply be running cold. Call it the hangover effects of eBay's fee hikes in the past several years - as sellers walked out on eBay in protestation of higher seller fees and took their variety of wares with them, buyers also saw less and less reason to buy on eBay. One of the things shoppers like most about Amazon is that it's the "everything store," where you can type in even the most obscure of items and find at least one seller that carries it. On eBay, with both the selection and volume of items getting thinner, it's getting harder and harder to bring buyers to the platform and, more importantly, reverse the steep deceleration in GMV growth.

[futuretomorrow]

@newview

Malls are probably not the best example since the last outdoor mall to be built in North America was in 2006. 2007 was the first year since 1950 America didn't have a new mall underway. That's why almost all malls are run down and/or will soon get there. Outdoor mall is key, not some of the new styles and those were outpaced by open plazas and other structures as well.

I'd need more specificity about what the unique items are you're referring to because in 2016 it was common knowledge in my industry at least that larger than normal amounts of users were trading "physical goods" for "experiences". The last generations grew up getting rid of things they never really understood why their parents "collected" in the first place and Americans hate to take care of their elderly, much less get rid of their old stuff. 

As someone that invested heavily in BTC and other cryptocurrencies I'm not sure you want to do that. BTC has never recovered since December, 21st -28th 2017. eBay stock if anyone owned it should have been sold between the time Carl Icahn forced the split in 2015 and months later sold his entire eBay portfolio, some $52 million worth of shares if memory serves correct.

That's my long way of saying eBay is so done and I'm sure Wenig knew that when he sold $5.7 millions shares back in 02/06/18.

[everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures]

And again...you sharing the OPINION of an self proclaimed OPINION based article and adding a whole lot more of the unfactual to it.
And again...you should be hoping and praying it is not anything that comes to fruition as millions of people depend on ebay to make a living and pay the bills and survive. It would devastate a lot of people....and it is not something you should even want to wish on ebay, gloat about or be right about either....as there is a whole other aspect to it and one you are forgetting about.....the people that would be completely devasted.

That is the real writing on the wall.
And it is a lot of bad Karma.

[membersinceaug2001]

Ebay should just leave the fantasy stock world and go back to being private.  They have always been profitable, can't say the same for Amazon.  Without the stock billions, Amazon would be nothing.

Can't have infinite growth in a finite world.

[futuretomorrow]

@ebbyisme

5. Amazon has an infrastructure that eBay can't even begin to compete with because they have none.

6. Amazon has AWS, Amazon Fresh, they rolled out new business startup package in 2018 for small businesses and they are working on a clothing technology (it's now in testing) that if successful will completely revolutionize online shopping for clothes.

7. Nike, the worlds largest footwear and sports retailer partnered with Amazon, not eBay.

Not only does eBay have none of these things what so ever, these are the things we publicly know Amazon is doing, not the full breadth of their patents and all technologies in action. While it's convenient for many, I don't even see these as comparable companies anymore. eBay would need Trillions, yes...forget the B's and let's jump straight to the T's, in order to even stand a chance against Amazon at this point.

[futuretomorrow]

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures

So if I understand your post correctly, whose fault exactly is it that these millions of people didn't make better investments in certain areas or diversify their business across other platforms and the things they sold in general to keep up with people's wants and needs?

I get qualitative data is a hard thing to comb through and make sense of and more so if one doesn't even know about it's use in determining product life cycles and peaks but you seem to be suggesting that this is all the fault of naysayers or people who see things realistically versus hoping for the best?

[futuretomorrow]

@vinashop2017

Agreed 100% and what I had hoped for their sake the GSP would have morphed into organically but eBay simply does not get it nor do they have that type of money now to spend on infrastructure, which would still pale in comparison to what Amazon has done and continues to do.

[hioctane62]

---

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:

And again...you sharing the OPINION of an self proclaimed OPINION based article and adding a whole lot more of the unfactual to it.
And again...you should be hoping and praying it is not anything that comes to fruition as millions of people depend on ebay to make a living and pay the bills and survive. It would devastate a lot of people....and it is not something you should even want to wish on ebay, gloat about or be right about either....as there is a whole other aspect to it and one you are forgetting about.....the people that would be completely devasted.

That is the real writing on the wall.
And it is a lot of bad Karma.

---

Ebay is already devastating plenty of sellers by hiding what they have for sale, and devastating themselves in the process. You choose to defend everything they do, and believe it's for the best, you will be the one caught off guard when it happens. If you told me 5 years ago that Toys-R-Us would be gone in 5 years, I would have told you you're crazy. Don't believe it can't happen.

[futuretomorrow]

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures

I guess you didn't understand what I meant so I'll clarify. I'm not talking about a browser session where you can set the default search engine. What is new and I know for a fact you don't have access to is that buyers are on Amazon already and using their search in place of Google. That's how powerful Amazon is.

No one does this with eBay nor is it something I'm personally going to debate with anyone and have a continued back and forth over unless they're a data analyst and want to have a sidebar to not derail the threads main intent but please bring verifiable data to said discussion.

[futuretomorrow]

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures

You are aware of the fact that since the 1970's entire industries have been wiped out right? Has the world plummeted into complete anarchy and chaos? 

No one is wishing ill on these millions you're referring to. Bad Karma? I'd agree...eBay has a lot coming their way and this is only the beginning.

[turquoisetulips]

---

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:

And while you think it is great to say ebay is going down or hoping it is going down or celebrating ebay going down...millions of people count on ebay to make a living, to put food on the table, pay bills....so that is also in turn, indirectly wishing them to not be able to do so and or celebrating that as well.

Ebay failing, if it ever happens would be "devasting" for millions of people....not something anyone should wish for or celebrate.
In fact you should hope it doesn't ever happen for just that reason alone. everything - unquote ---------------

I don't think any e bay seller  truly wants e bay to fail  unless they are so angry , fed up and are packing up to leave to go sell elsewhere  . The rest really do want e bay to thrive  but they're just frustrated  because nobody at the helm seems to be listening .  You can only bang your head against the wall so many times .  Tulips 

---

[carlmarxx]

---

@hioctane62 wrote:

---

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures wrote:

And again...you sharing the OPINION of an self proclaimed OPINION based article and adding a whole lot more of the unfactual to it.
And again...you should be hoping and praying it is not anything that comes to fruition as millions of people depend on ebay to make a living and pay the bills and survive. It would devastate a lot of people....and it is not something you should even want to wish on ebay, gloat about or be right about either....as there is a whole other aspect to it and one you are forgetting about.....the people that would be completely devasted.

That is the real writing on the wall.
And it is a lot of bad Karma.

---

Ebay is already devastating plenty of sellers by hiding what they have for sale, and devastating themselves in the process. You choose to defend everything they do, and believe it's for the best, you will be the one caught off guard when it happens. If you told me 5 years ago that Toys-R-Us would be gone in 5 years, I would have told you you're crazy. Don't believe it can't happen.

---

I for one  would  have thought  that Toysrus  U.S.   would  have  been  gone 6 years ago .  because  they  did not follow  TOYRUS Canada's Buisness model .  So we do have Toyrus Canada  still running.  . 

[carlmarxx]

---

@futuretomorrow wrote:

@everything-from-trinkets-to-treasures

I guess you didn't understand what I meant so I'll clarify. I'm not talking about a browser session where you can set the default search engine. What is new and I know for a fact you don't have access to is that buyers are on Amazon already and using their search in place of Google. That's how powerful Amazon is.

No one does this with eBay nor is it something I'm personally going to debate with anyone and have a continued back and forth over unless they're a data analyst and want to have a sidebar to not derail the threads main intent but please bring verifiable data to said discussion.

---

I would like ebay  to stay with what got them to the mountain top to begain with ,It was never brand new items , and get away from buyer first policys  .Also  they need to get people that have worked in the retail indusry  And don't see their sellers as crooks to scam buyers.  They need to give sellers equal protections. and remove the MBG that is it's current form ! and get a new buyer  protection policy that doesn't  include  Snads , On the fact that ebay should never gotten involved in snad disputes  to begain with. 

[gracieallen01]

ebay built their AI and 'bots to tell them what is happening, how best to run the company, how people will behave, what people will buy and to make the company function for them.  ebay believes what their AI tells them.  Their AI may be right, according to ebay thinking, the ebay numbering system and the way ebay wants things to be. 

And, then, there is another, the next generation or the next flash in the pan.  On the one hand, nothing is the same while on the other, nothing has changed.  The only thing that is consistent is that people are not.  Their AI is like ebay, it doesn't understand what happened or what didn't happen - people don't understand people, no matter what they say and AI only begins its learning process from people.  They like to think they do, but people generally understand what they want to understand, and in the way they want to understand.  So, one day they wake up and find they were dreaming.  They take a new pill - the new 3 year growth plan - and go back to sleep for another 10 years.  To wait for the changes to catch up?  To catch up with the changes?  To pass the time?

[chapeau-noir]

---

@futuretomorrow wrote:

@newview

Malls are probably not the best example since the last outdoor mall to be built in North America was in 2006. 2007 was the first year since 1950 America didn't have a new mall underway. That's why almost all malls are run down and/or will soon get there. Outdoor mall is key, not some of the new styles and those were outpaced by open plazas and other structures as well.

I'd need more specificity about what the unique items are you're referring to because in 2016 it was common knowledge in my industry at least that larger than normal amounts of users were trading "physical goods" for "experiences". The last generations grew up getting rid of things they never really understood why their parents "collected" in the first place and Americans hate to take care of their elderly, much less get rid of their old stuff. 

---

Don't sprain yourself with that broad brush.

[siayan]

Whenever I try to figure out what happened to eBay I only need to think of etsy. Etsy is the company eBay built. There really should be no etsy but thanks to eBay someone had to do it. Every penny etsy earns was given to them by eBay.

I am sure there are others that owe their existence to ebays mistakes.