Well, THANKS, ebay---Results of PLS Ad Rate Forecasting Tool Test

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

This is the result of ONE test with the new "forecasting tool" (announced in the last seller update, and in gradual roll out right now), so, take it for what its worth LOL

However, I've been saying for a long time that sellers who chase ever higher rates for Promoted Listings Standard are probably giving ebay too much money (assuming they make a sale).

I suppose, depending on how you interpret these results, this confirms what I've been saying.

I just tried the new forecasting tool.

I set up (but never launched) a campaign for the 347 listings I do not currently have in a campaign---a very quick look at the first page of the listings suggests ebay provides suggested rates of about 9% to 13% for these items. My parameters were: Continuous campaign, Dynamic type with caps.

Here are the results of the forecasts with various caps:

2%   >   1%

3%  > 16%

4% > 27%

5% > 36%

6% > 43%

7%>50%

8%>55%

9% >60%

10% >63%

11% > 65%

12% >67%

13% > 68%

The following all yielded the same as 13%, which is to say, 68%:

15%, 17%, 20%, 25%, 45% and 75%.

Again, this is one test, your mileage might (probably will) vary, but a few TENTATIVE conclusions:

1. Going beyond the highest suggested rate is probably a waste of money...there's no real benefit in this case in choosing, say, 20% instead of 13%. The forecast is the same. Even for 75%.

2. ebay provides no benchmarks for us to interpret the actual value of these numbers (even assuming the forecasts are relatively accurate). Remember, the forecast is predicting impressions, NOT views or sales. So, at 9% I'm looking at 60%, at 13% I'm looking at 68%. How meaningful is that difference in terms of sales? Maybe not very meaningful at all. But it certainly is meaningful in terms of how much you end up paying ebay if you get a sale.

If I were actually going to set this up as campaign, personally I would probably choose 3 or 4% to see what actually happens with that percentage (in terms of views/sales). The very highest I would likely go is 7%, because I'm just not at all confident that the difference between, say, 50% at 7% and 68% at 13% is worth paying more for.

I don't have time to run other tests, changing the listings included, setting a duration, etc., but will try to do some more testing when I get a chance. 

[the-hook-and-the-loop]

I'm so tired of eBay's games. I just want to sell. For 4 years straight, everyday, I packed 30-50 orders. Now eBay is just self-destructing more and more.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Sorry my test results were of no interest to you. Maybe someone else will find them interesting.

[simply-the-best-for-you]

Where would one find this tool if one had time to mess around with it?  

I've been changing up my PL's & haven't settled on anything.  Without seeing the tool, Im not sure what your numbers mean?  Specifically the ones with the percentages.  What are they referring to?  

[isaiah53-57]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

If I were actually going to set this up as campaign, personally I would probably choose 3 or 4% to see what actually happens with that percentage (in terms of views/sales). The very highest I would likely go is 7%, because I'm just not at all confident that the difference between, say, 50% at 7% and 68% at 13% is worth paying more for.

I don't have time to run other tests, changing the listings included, setting a duration, etc., but will try to do some more testing when I get a chance. 

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques

You do realize this 7% of the ENTIRE TRANSACTION you say is the highest you would give them is ON TOP OF the 13% of the ENTIRE TRANSACTION you are already giving them right? - Thats 20% of the ENTIRE TRANSACTION which includes shipping cost and sales tax - Which likely equates to close to 30% or even more of the item's selling price - And if you own this item for 1/2 of the selling price, you will likely give ebay close to or over 60% of the profit you would stand to make on say a $25 item with $10 shipping and $2 sales tax - The approximate 40% of the profit you are left with? You still need to cover all the costs of doing business, let alone account for your TIME involved in  listing, tending, selling, shipping, and then praying - And you think this is OK on any level?? This is beyond absurd - Its seem more like sharecropping - Being a book seller, I'm sure you are familiar with the old fable "The Emperor Has New Clothes"?? Is there anyone else out there that finds this appalling?...and wait... keep in mind we are talking 7% here, not the 10 to 13% ebay is trying to push down throats.... Wow.......just...wow...

[mybigsale]

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques 

Very interesting. The 3% to 7% range does seem to give you the most bang for your buck. I do see increased impressions within the 3%-7% range. Not sure there is a direct correlation with page views. I get pretty good organic search results, so as I go from 3% to 7% my listings tend to be more and more flipped from organic to promoted listings in search.  Seems like at some point, while the total impressions increase, I sometimes see a decrease in page views and sales. With my random listings and market volatility it is hard to get solid data. If you have insight or test on page views/sales over time in the 3% to 7% range, please share.

The tool only worked once for me a while ago. I usually get error messages that the tool is not functioning at this time. Thanks for sharing!

[mybigsale]

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques 

@isaiah53-57 

You do realize......................................................wow...

Now you tell us. Where were you when I was testing the 100% Ad Rate?

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@isaiah53-57  Thanks, and yes, I know how PLS works. And, as I've explained many times, any seller using PLS needs to know his numbers, and should NEVER simply use suggested rates...a seller should always understand the 1. impact on a sale on his margins and 2. the degree to which a particular rate is likely to improve the chances of making a sale and 3. do all of this with a clear strategy in mind. For example, if I have old inventory I really want to move to open up storage space, I might be willing to reduce my margins more , or maybe if I really need cash flow, but just using it without a clear goal ...I don't advise it.

So, to help you out here, MY margins on many items are such that I CAN still make a satisfactory profit even with 7% PLS. Not everyone is in the same position, which is why I always recommend sellers know THEIR numbers. I did NOT suggest that everyone should use 7%. I simply said I might choose to use it in this case. Obviously, if a seller has tighter margins, than 7% can be too high. Each seller needs to figure this stuff out for his business.

To me, one of the interesting things about this test is I've seen sellers claim they have proved that PLS doesn't work at all because "I tried it at 50% and didn't even get a sale!" No real reason to be shocked, because 50% , as I've been saying for ages, is no guarantee that you are getting a whole lot more exposure than say at 10%. PLS does NOT guarantee sales...sales ultimately come from the item being what the buyer wants at a price the buyer wants to pay....PLS might help get the buyer to SEE the item, but the item makes the sale, not PLS.

[cardxcraft]

I find them very interesting...I would appreciate if you keep posting your results.  Thanks for the research.

[cardxcraft]

Its seems too much promotion is not a good thing.  Your prices better be spot on if you're going to promote, otherwise you end up ruining your scr (sales conversion rate).

I'm not promoting until I get my prices under control. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@simply-the-best-for-you 

You might or might not have it yet. It is in gradual roll out. Go to your Seller Hub, Marketing Tab>Advertising Dashboard>click the blue "Create New Campaign" button. I went to Standard>Simple and, IF you have the tool, it will be over in the right hand corner, top of the page. Although ebay called it a forecasting tool in the Update, here they simply label it "performance", which of course, in typical ebay fashion, needlessly confuses the matter.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@mybigsale  Just to caution...remember, this was one specific campaign. Numbers probably vary depending on the components of the proposed campaign. But what really stood out to me is that this really should serve as a counter-weight to those who continue to think choosing a really high rate is the only way to go. Not only is it NOT, it is clearly rather foolish...not just because of how big a bite it can take out of one's margins, but because there's likely no real benefit compared to lower numbers when you go really high.

[mcdougle4248]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@simply-the-best-for-you 

You might or might not have it yet. It is in gradual roll out. Go to your Seller Hub, Marketing Tab>Advertising Dashboard>click the blue "Create New Campaign" button. I went to Standard>Simple and, IF you have the tool, it will be over in the right hand corner, top of the page. Although ebay called it a forecasting tool in the Update, here they simply label it "performance", which of course, in typical ebay fashion, needlessly confuses the matter.

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Thank you for the steps and screenshot. I see it now. It looks like since I have all of my listings in a current campaign I am not privy to "forecasting". I will see what it looks like when my current campaign ends (or I end it).

[mybigsale]

Yes, I understand the point you are making. 10% has been my ceiling since promoted listings began, not that I would ever go as high as 10%. Thanks for the data...

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

from the seller update:

What does the “estimated impression share” mean, and what should I do with the information?

The estimated impression share metric balances your chosen ad rate with the maximum possible impressions your ad could receive. It helps to determine the impact your ad rate may have on your campaign’s overall success and performance.

For example, if your estimated impression share is 85%, it indicates that your choices such as ad rate, listings, and ad rate cap may result in you receiving 85% of the total predicted impressions for a campaign similar to yours. You can use this estimate to adjust your ad rate, remove or increase any ad rate caps, or select different listings to reach the desired impression share aligned with your advertising goals.

More here: https://www.ebay.com/sellercenter/resources/seller-updates/2023-summer/listing