Sales

[amricons]

It is really slow so here is a Puzzle to solve in the deadtime.

1. eBay gets 67% + or more of their GMV sales Internationally

2. Dollar and Euro reached parity

3. Inflation rampant in the US.

4. Dollar more and more considered a safe haven not gold anymore.

 Challenge Question:  How much will e-commerce sales drop in the US in this environment ?

[fab_finds4u]

No matter how you're tweaking the fees to arrive at a 67% fee the eBay fees for most categories are 12.9%  of the total cost. That would be the item, shipping and sales tax.  12.9 %.

[amricons]

Please re-read the post. We are talking about sales for eBay.

[chapeau-noir]

Inflation is rampant world wide, similar to ecommerce.

[inhawaii]

ANSWER: Nobody knows. You can only speculate.

[amricons]

That was the purpose of the post.  For example, Dollar vs Euro. Since the euro hit parity, it means it dropped in buying power to the dollar. If it fell 20% in 2022 and other international currency fell against the dollar and 67% of eBay sales come from international there should be an effect on eBay sales.   That is the exercise.  There have already been workups in the industry. However, as an individual seller you can do the exercise for you own business.  Sometimes I see sellers that do not sell international, seems they need to take another look if they are concerned about additional sales as they are missing 67% of the actual market.  In any case, our guess is that it will affect 30-40% of present day dollars. There are multiple effects in play. There are real problems and there are real solutions.  Our guess is one solution from eBay is to continue to try increasing revenues aka , latest chjanges to the Jewery catagory.  There is no right or wrong answer but many of the issues asked by sellers actually have some very basic answers as business have to adjust to these type of change or crease to exist.  Canada as an example is one of our largest trading partners.  For US its is great to buy but very difficult for US sellers to sell to Canadians. Got some great deals on Maples working the spread.    Why do this type of exercise. Before you can solve problems you need to define the problems.  People will hoard dollars in times of chaos, stress etc. The drop in Euro value means that economy has dropped buying power.  US traveler's are getting great deals in Europe this summer.  A too strong dollar never means good things for our economy as people outside the US cannot buy our stuff or buy less. The question here is how much less ? We are looking at the perfect storm and if you are a concerned seller you need to understand several basic thing in order to surrvive. Those that have been on eBay for a long time have seen this before but each wave is different from the last and knowledge, experience , and understanding will allow you to survive.  The Euro/Dollar ratio is huge for eBay management so much of eBay sales is international. Even if you do not sell international, what eBay does about this very real issue will effect every single eBay seller.  Look at the pattern the past 2 years. For those sellers that keep complaining about how international sellers keep buying their US only items,  the answer is simple, international sales are growing at a far faster pace the domestic US, while in the industry eBay has been falling behind in GMV.  The one bright spot for eBay is international.  So, the strong dollar will kill eBay, hence this exercise. Give it a try

[amricons]

PS: Hope you feel better, we have many friends and contacts in HI.

[femmefan1946]

When was the last time gold was considered a safe haven by anyone who understands how money works?

The price of gold bounces up and down constantly.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

You also seem to be assuming that most sellers are in the USA.

The Global Shipping Program was introduced to the UK because most UK sellers would not ship even across the Channel.

While the USA is the largest single economy in the world, the European Union as a whole has been larger for most of this century.

[femmefan1946]

And about us Canadians. We have never been mail order buyers the way our American neighbours have been. Our two largest mail order companies were both based in  Canada, and even when Simpsons became Simpsons -Sears they remained here. We have a different culture.

[dnasilver]

Cannot solve the puzzle since #3 should of read "Inflation rampant worldwide." In fact the US is minor compared to many other countries when comparing inflation.

#4 Gold has not been used as a standard for most people's entire lives.

What environment are you talking about? Since #3 & #4 are baseless in your question.

Challenge Question.........what is the challenge?

Since life is fluid and ever changing there is no factual answer to your business question. 

[toysaver]

EBay has the unique characteristic of being birthed to sell used commercial goods.   Surely this is an online sales advantage for them as the economic state of the world diminishes. 

[powell-memorabilia]

6.48%

[amricons]

Well here is 1 answer:

eBay 2nd quarter results

Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $18.5 billion, down 18%

[dhbookds]

lol..........and here's another headline:

EBay Inc. reported second-quarter revenue that beat expectations and an upbeat profit outlook, evidence that a new focus on luxury items and collectibles is helping offset slowing sales and customer traffic.

The shares rose about 5% in extended trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/ebay-beats-estimates-on-sales-and-earnings-foreca...

[femmefan1946]

67% of eBay sales come from international there should be an effect on eBay sales.

I think you are assuming that 67% of US sellers are selling internationally.

But most of those international sales are domestic to the same site.

Most sales on eBay Germany go to Germany. Most sales on eBayAustralia go to Australia. Most sales on eBay India go to India.

And many non-US sellers list here on dotCOM selling into the USA.

All of those would, I think, be called International Sales.

Only US to US would be domestic sales.

The USA is the world's biggest single economy*.

That 33% of transactions on eBay worldwide are domestic US should not be a shock.

EBay formulated the Global Shipping Program as a Seller Protection in the hopes that it would encourage nervous US** sellers  to consider shipping internationally, something that non-US sellers take in stride.

Full disclosure: I ship from Canada and list on both dotCA and dotCOM.

*The European Union as a whole is actually larger if considered as one economy.

** Later extended to the UK because: Brexit.