@andrew547 wrote:
"I have no idea why people keep acting like Coronavirus isn't going to affect our economy when public events are shutting down all over the U.S, biting local economies in the process."
If the flu kills 60,000 Americans each year, and if the Coronavirus death rate holds at 2% vs. 0.1% for the flu, that's 1.2 million Coronavirus deaths. Even if I'm very generous and optimistic that mitigation efforts will reduce that by 50%, that's 600,000 deaths.
I don't think this society is ready for that. And after watching this administration shoo it away for a month because they (read: he) clearly don't want to deal with it effectively (and thus can't), I expect an outbreak.
It's only going to take an unfortunate conflagration of two unexpected/scary/synergistic events for things to break down. I'm not predicting that, but it's certainly possible. I suspect it's likely. China is closed for business. US corporations were predicted to have zero profits for 2020 a week ago. Markets dropped I don't know, 10% last week. Italy is quarantining 20 million people. This is just starting to hit us now. It's very early.
I'm not even scared. I think the answer to your question is that people in a population have two modes: denial and panic. We are in denial now. We may have panic in the near future.
To bring this back on-topic: I think ebay could see an uptick in sales if people are afraid to go out shopping but a downturn if the economy tanks. What will happen? As of this moment, I have no idea, but all things equal, I think the odds are better than not that the answer is "something". I think the odds this thing just fades away is very close to zero.
You make several important and valid points. I think it may get much better during the warmer months, before it could get much worse, in the Fall and beyond. For right now, shopping online should be O.K., given the relatively small number of cases. But engaging in good health behaviors is a must. This ooogely V-bug is not the only deadly virus out there (and may not be the last one to deal with), yet people still have been buying used clothing, handbags even cosmetics, relentlessly, without a worry, for years - I am assuming few have wiped off or handled the items with gloves, when those arrived at their door-step. But now they will.
This is as good a time as any to improve hygiene in our environment, and to think about certain preferences to toss out the window (such as going to crowded places, or touching our face 2-3,000 times daily, and please DON't pick your nose!). If earlier, you hosed off your trash bin after pick-up with a garden hose, now use some Lysol to spray it, too, especially, the handle bar. Open and leave packages outside. Disinfect content. Use one-time food-handling gloves to touch any potential source of contamination. Change shoes before entering your house. Get rid of carpet flooring. Especially in the MidWest part of the U.S.A., many older homes that have carpet flooring, also have a hardwood floor underneath. It takes only a couple of hours to tear out the carpet floor and even if one does not have the money to immediately restore the hardwood flooring underneath, one will be much healthier. The amount of virus, bacteria, dust-mites and other horrible things that live in older carpet floors is surreal. You can vacuum it as much as you wish to, it won't make much of a difference. Get small, machine washable Cotton rugs that are easy to clean. Stuff like that.
The fact is, as I mentioned in another thread: we still need to eat. Because this bug spreads intestinally, not only via air, it is far more likely that those infected will have picked it up through eating uncooked, contaminated fresh fruit or vegetables. This bug loves wet surfaces - so perhaps some of the grocery store chains should re-evaluate the horrible practice of spraying their vegetables every 5 minutes with water. It surely helps them rake in more money (the weight of the items increases that way), but it is going to do a disfavor to the general population (not to mention, I hate to bite into something half-way rotten, before I even had a chance to take it home). Even if the grocery stores would comply with this, we have no control over who handled that cabbage, or other vegetable, prior to it being packaged, so there will be cases of infection through this route. Most scientific literature I have seen points out that some people can carry this intruder bug for up to 3-4 weeks and be asymptomatic (show no signs of infection), during which time, he or she will infect many other people, and tracking down everyone with whom he or she had contact, is simply an impossible task.
Also, just wanted to mention, the death rate is not as low from this bug as your STATS state; it stands between 3.25 - 5%, depending on what country we are talking about. C****( and Ir**) may not tell you the exact numbers, but the Italians now officially say 5%. This is NOT the 5% of ALL people in a country, only 5% of those infected - but still could be a very large number. Being vigilant is good - panicking, for that, there really is no need if one engages in careful and consistent good health practices.
God bless us all with wisdom and perseverance - but we need to do a little bit of our own part, too, to protect ourselves.
PW
tree*fern
