Another tiny PLS Dynamic Rate test----Results

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

I'm not making any big claims for this. I ran a tiny test simply because I was curious. A longer test, a test with more listings or different listings, etc, could well have a very different result. But, for what it's worth:

I chose four items, more or less at random. (Same ones I used in the last test I did) All long tail, single quantity items, none with watchers , and frankly, none with a high expectation of selling at the current price, regardless of PLS. They are long tail, not "hot" items. The objective was NOT to get them sold, just to test the rates. 

OK, so I chose 4 items. I ran the PLS campaign from July 10th to today, July 19th. Nothing sold, which was fine. As with the last, shorter test, impressions increased daily, this time I also did get a few views. But again, I was testing rates, not testing the success of a campaign.

I used the dynamic rate tool. I set the cap at 20%. I did not use the plus/minus tool.

On the day I listed, the recommended rates were : 1 at 7%, 3 at 11%. (note---the first test ended on the 9th, and the rates then were 7%, 10% and 2 at 11%...so there was one increase, from 10 to 11%)

Remember, my cap was 20%.

Later on the 10th, I reduced the price of each item by 10%. This was the purpose of the test---to see what effect (if any) reducing the item price would have).  On the 13th and the 16th I did the same---reduced the price of each item by 10%. I made sure there were a couple days in between, because I figured it might take more than a day for any impact from the reduced price to be felt. 

The rates on the 11th were unchanged, on the 12th the 7% item went to 8%, however, on the 13th, before I again reduced the item price, the rates changed, with all 3 11% items going down to 9%. (The 8% remained the same). On the 14th, the 8% item went to 7%, and on the 14th and 15th the 9% listings were the same, but 8% went to 7% and then 7.1%. On the 16th, before I made the price reduction, they were at 11% , 7% and 2 still at 9%. Since then, the 11% has remained stable, the 2 9% listings have as well, and the 7% went from 7 to 8 for two days but back down to 7% today.

Again, a tiny test. Initially, it did seem that the price reduction might have prompted some rate reductions, but that might have been nothing but correlation, NOT causation. The algo is complex, and , while perhaps larger price reductions might have a clear effect (or might not), I'd guess that price reductions alone won't necessarily reduce the rate. 

I can say this, over a period of ten days, the fluctuations were relatively modest, with some going up or down by one percentage point, and with some going up or down 2 percentage points. Again, as with the first test, my rates never came close to the cap of 20%.

So, I can't really say that reducing the item price definitely moves the needle on the rates. I can say that rates go up and down, and , in this case at least, never came close to the cap.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

One thing both tests did provide some evidence for: rates can go both up and down, and ebay isn't necessarily going to increase a rate quickly to get it to the cap level. 

I'm looking forward to seeing what the new tool can do in the way of testing....supposedly coming this summer....has anyone seen it yet?

[simply-the-best-for-you]

So to summarize, rates went both up AND DOWN, as we always said they did LOL.  

How nice of you to do the work to prove it!  I always knew it.  It's always gone both up & down. 

ETA:  Also, what "new tool" are you referring to? 

[slippinjimmy]

Could one summarize that your (very limited) testing shows that the various conspiracy theories have no basis in fact?

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

The new PLS "forecasting" tool....I admit, I suspect it will be about as useful as "suggested rates", but I'd like to see it and play with before passing judgment. It was part of the newest Seller Update, and is supposed to launch "this summer".

[simply-the-best-for-you]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

The new PLS "forecasting" tool....I admit, I suspect it will be about as useful as "suggested rates", but I'd like to see it and play with before passing judgment. It was part of the newest Seller Update, and is supposed to launch "this summer".

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Ah, thank you.  I missed the last update to the personal situation I've been dealing with for the last few months.  That explains why I don't know about it. 

[simply-the-best-for-you]

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@slippinjimmy wrote:

Could one summarize that your (very limited) testing shows that the various conspiracy theories have no basis in fact?

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@slippinjimmy   It wasn't my testing, it was OP's.  I would certainly agree that it shows that certain conspiracy theories have no basis in fact.  But I always knew they didn't 😉  I've been using the dynamic pricing for a couple of years now & I always knew the rates went both up & down.  But yeah, there's a couple of posters who are not believers. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Basic info: 

You’ll soon be able to see how your ad rate may impact your advertising performance and buyer reach before you launch a campaign. Our new ad rate forecasting feature will provide you with a real-time prediction of your estimated impression share during campaign setup and on your campaign details page. With this information, you’ll be able to extend your potential ad reach and budget your spending accordingly with the aim of boosting your campaign performance.

Once this feature becomes fully available this summer, it’ll appear on your campaign creation page, as well as your campaign details page. When adjusting your ad rate, you'll be able to see how increasing or decreasing your spending can impact the performance of your campaign.

Here's a link, with FAQs: https://www.ebay.com/sellercenter/resources/seller-updates/2023-summer/listing

[simply-the-best-for-you]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

Basic info: 

You’ll soon be able to see how your ad rate may impact your advertising performance and buyer reach before you launch a campaign. Our new ad rate forecasting feature will provide you with a real-time prediction of your estimated impression share during campaign setup and on your campaign details page. With this information, you’ll be able to extend your potential ad reach and budget your spending accordingly with the aim of boosting your campaign performance.

Once this feature becomes fully available this summer, it’ll appear on your campaign creation page, as well as your campaign details page. When adjusting your ad rate, you'll be able to see how increasing or decreasing your spending can impact the performance of your campaign.

Here's a link, with FAQs: https://www.ebay.com/sellercenter/resources/seller-updates/2023-summer/listing

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques  

Sorry, just saw this.  LOL, here we go with "real time" again.  Ebay has proven over & over again that they have no clue what real time means (scary for a "tech company"), but I digress, all in all IDK that this will be particularly useful, as it just sounds like some estimates.  But, I guess we'll see. 

[gurlcat]

I don't see any screenshots, do you?  Also, even if the Suggested Ad Rate does go up and down, it has certainly never gone down for me, but it's impossible to prove a negative and it doesn't matter to me whether these two believe me or not.  

But even if she did show screenshots, even if the SAR's did go down as she says, even if she conducted a much larger scale sample group, and even if the SAR reductions did appear to correlate with item price markdowns .... IT WOULD SUPPORT THE "CONSPIRACY THEORY" THAT SAR'S AREN'T REAL, CATEGORY-WIDE DATA, THAT THEY ARE PROGRAMMED TO TARGET INDIVIDUALS, MANIPULATE THEIR INSECURITIES, AND CASH IN ON HOW WELL THOSE MANIPULATIONS AFFECTED THEIR DECISIONS.  

@simply-the-best-for-you  I'm not going to dig for the thread that was at least a couple years ago, but I remember it was you specifically arguing that fluctuations in SAR's was only due to seasonal changes and amount of competition within categories, but that they were the SAME for all listings by all sellers OF SPECIFIC CATEGORIES.  That is obviously not true.  

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@gurlcat  I have screenshots. Saw no need to provide them because this isn't complicated...I provided a summary of the results. You want to call me a liar, go ahead, I really don't care.

Nowhere have I said that your experience----numbers always going up, never down----is not an accurate reflection of your experience. I take your word for it, frankly. But that doesn't mean the numbers never fluctuate for others, and I am not the only one saying I have seen the fluctuations.

As to correlations with markdowns, I said that there was some indication that markdowns might impact the rate, but no assurance that every markdown would have an impact....the test was inconclusive when it comes to that.

Further testing could be done, with different price reductions, etc, but I'm satisfied with what I found out.

As to manipulating insecurities, really, it wouldn't matter what the test results showed, you would believe that ebay is intentionally trying to use these rates to push people into choosing ever higher rates.  That's your belief, and no amount of testing will change that.

I didn't run these tests to prove anything to YOU, I ran the tests for myself, and shared them with anyone who might find the results interesting.

[gurlcat]

The thing is, there's no way other than individualized manipulation to view individualized SAR's.  And I'm not even saying it's a diabolical thing; in theory it's just like having a "guru" looking at your listings and saying "try this".   I've (loosely) observed that my SAR's dramatically increase on items that I've sent out offers to watchers and the time has expired with none of them accepting.  Theoretically that could be the "guru" saying, "Okay even that didn't work, so you really need a lot more eyes on this listing just to increase the chance of someone finding it and wanting it bad enough."    But that's not the kind of mechanism Ebay claims it is; they claim it is based only on site-wide, category-wide data, and more to the point, sellers BELIEVE that's all it is based on.  

Maybe the biggest frustration this causes me (and should cause everyone) is how they're getting us to focus on which version out of THREE promotion types to use (assuming they still offer that ridiculous one where you pay for clicks), and even argue among ourselves about how SAR's work ...... as opposed to thinking about how promotion even works!  Supposedly it makes your listing show higher in search results, according to how high your rate is .... but when was the last time you saw ANYBODY test THAT?  And how could it even be done?!  Why do we just TRUST that 11% will do any better than 9% or whatever?   If they're dishonest about how SAR's work, why should we assume they're honest about any of it?  

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

"Maybe the biggest frustration this causes me (and should cause everyone) is how they're getting us to focus on which version out of THREE promotion types to use (assuming they still offer that ridiculous one where you pay for clicks)..."

I have no trouble with that, it's not in the least frustrating. PLE is only for auctions----I run few auctions, and , if ebay US follows ebay Germany's lead, PLE will soon vanish , and auctions will be folded inti PLS. That leaves PLS and PLA (pay per click). When PLA was first announced I studied it, and after some prodding, ebay acknowledged that it is primarily intended for sellers of multi quantity listings, generally newer stuff. That isn't me, so I can safely ignore it, as can many who post here----if you are a single quantity seller of older stuff, you are certainly free to experiment with it----a few have posted here saying they found it useful---but I haven't even bothered experimenting with it.

So, for me, it's either use PLS or use nothing. Nothing ebay does gets me to focus on the other two.

Suggested rates are NOT category based, they are item based. The old trending rates were category based. As to the rates themselves? I've explained many times that any seller who assumes that 11% will provide dramatically better results than 9% should not be making those kinds of assumptions. 

I look at the Suggested rate this way: If the rate is 10%, that means that ebay is telling me that anything over 10% is probably not going to increase the odds of a sale by much at all. I could do 20% and that would definitely not double my odds....it would simply mean if I make a sale, I'm paying ebay a lot more than I probably should have, because a lower rate would have been as effective.

If the rate is 10%, it also doesn't mean that there is necessarily a big difference between 5% and 10%...10% probably increases the odds of more impressions and maybe more sales, but again, it doesn't double the odds. And the difference might be insignificant. 

This isn't really rocket science. test your way into it. Start low. And always know your numbers. If I'm working on very thin margins, then a high rate is simply out of the question. Period. I couldn't care less what ebay's suggested rate is.

PLS isn't all that terrible, or all that complicated.. What is terrible is so many sellers don't take the time to figure out how to use it effectively. 

[simply-the-best-for-you]

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@gurlcat wrote:

I don't see any screenshots, do you?  Also, even if the Suggested Ad Rate does go up and down, it has certainly never gone down for me, but it's impossible to prove a negative and it doesn't matter to me whether these two believe me or not.  

But even if she did show screenshots, even if the SAR's did go down as she says, even if she conducted a much larger scale sample group, and even if the SAR reductions did appear to correlate with item price markdowns .... IT WOULD SUPPORT THE "CONSPIRACY THEORY" THAT SAR'S AREN'T REAL, CATEGORY-WIDE DATA, THAT THEY ARE PROGRAMMED TO TARGET INDIVIDUALS, MANIPULATE THEIR INSECURITIES, AND CASH IN ON HOW WELL THOSE MANIPULATIONS AFFECTED THEIR DECISIONS.  

@simply-the-best-for-you  I'm not going to dig for the thread that was at least a couple years ago, but I remember it was you specifically arguing that fluctuations in SAR's was only due to seasonal changes and amount of competition within categories, but that they were the SAME for all listings by all sellers OF SPECIFIC CATEGORIES.  That is obviously not true.  

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@gurlcat 

I don't need screenshots, I know they go up & down.   I definitely said that they fluctuate based on seasonal changes & likely competition.  I never said that they  "only" fluctuate for those reasons.  I'm not privy to eBay's algorithms, so I certainly don't know everything that affects them, nor did I ever claim to.   The seasonal changes are very apparent to me.  

I also can't imagine I ever said they were the same for all listings by all sellers of specific categories.  I think you must have misunderstood me.  If it was several years ago, I don't recall what thread you're referring to, but I have absolutely no idea if they're the same for all sellers within a category or not.   I believe they are b/c of the way that eBay groups items, using IS's that I would never think to use, to determine like items, but I don't know this for a fact.   

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@simply-the-best-for-you  Without knowing details, it is hard to say much about the forecasting tool, but, if I'm understanding this correctly, it will allow me to plug in the suggested rate and see what forecast they give, and then try a lower or higher number and see what the difference is. 

Now, yes, the forecasts are just estimates, but....if a 10% rate has a forecast of 85%, and a 5 % rate has a forecast of 10%, I might decide 5% is too low. But if the 5% rate has a forecast of , say, 75%, I might decide it makes more sense to choose 5%.

So yes, I'm curious and am looking forward to testing it out, even if I end up never using it regularly....

I think they said it would be released "later this summer"....which, unfortunately, can mean almost anything to ebay, so I'm not holding my breath waiting for it LOL