ebay reports Q4: Link to Press Release

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

https://investors.ebayinc.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/eBay-Inc.-Reports-Fourth-Quar...

[tobaccocardyahoo]

Those results are respectable and the conservative guidance is appropriate.

Still would not buy their stock, but I cannot think of anything which would motivate me to.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

"eBay achieved three consecutive quarters of GMV growth to end 2024, and we took significant steps toward our vision of reinventing the future of ecommerce for enthusiasts," said Jamie Iannone, Chief Executive Officer at eBay. "I'm proud of how the team has innovated for our buyers and sellers, which has driven significant value for shareholders."

"eBay delivered strong results in the fourth quarter, as we met or exceeded expectations across our key financial metrics," said Steve Priest, Chief Financial Officer at eBay. "We created a solid foundation to build upon in 2025, and our outlook reflects our confidence in eBay's ability to drive sustainable, long-term growth."

Fourth Quarter Financial Highlights

Revenue was $2.6 billion, up 1% on an as-reported and foreign exchange ("FX") neutral basis.
GMV was $19.3 billion, up 4% on an as-reported basis and up 3% on an FX-Neutral basis.
GAAP net income from continuing operations was $680 million, or $1.40 per diluted share.
Non-GAAP net income from continuing operations was $607 million, or $1.25 per diluted share.
GAAP and Non-GAAP operating margins were 21.1% and 27.0%, respectively.
Generated $677 million of operating cash flow and $560 million of free cash flow.
Returned $1.0 billion to stockholders, including $900 million of share repurchases and $128 million paid in cash dividends.

Full Year Financial Highlights

Revenue was $10.3 billion, up 2% on an as-reported and FX-Neutral basis.
GMV was $74.7 billion, up 2% on an as-reported basis and up 1% on an FX-Neutral basis.
GAAP net income from continuing operations was $2.0 billion, or $3.95 per diluted share.
Non-GAAP net income from continuing operations was $2.4 billion, or $4.88 per diluted share.
GAAP and Non-GAAP operating margins were 22.5% and 28.1%, respectively.
Generated $2.4 billion of operating cash flow and $2.0 billion of free cash flow.
Returned $3.7 billion to stockholders, including $3.1 billion of share repurchases and $533 million paid in cash dividends.

Business Highlights

eBay made a significant investment in the U.K. market to improve the customer experience for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) sellers, including introducing a simplified listing flow on mobile, launching eBay Balance and Managed Shipping, and revamping local pickup and discovery capabilities. eBay also eliminated final value fees and regulatory operating fees for U.K. C2C sellers across all categories, excluding motor vehicles.
eBay expanded its artificial intelligence (AI)-powered magical bulk listing tool from Sports Trading Cards to all categories in the U.S., making it faster and easier for sellers to create detailed, eye-catching listings and get more inventory in front of buyers.
eBay's total advertising offerings generated $445 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, representing 2.3% of GMV. The company's first-party advertising products delivered $434 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, up 18% on an as-reported basis and up 16% on an FX-Neutral basis.
After a successful launch in Germany, eBay introduced Klarna's 'buy now, pay later' payment options to millions of shoppers in the U.K., Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Additionally, Klarna users in these countries can now resell items bought through the Klarna app on eBay in minutes, with automatic listing details and images, giving people more flexibility in how they sell.
To offer more locally relevant payment methods, eBay partnered with Riverty to offer buyers in Germany the option to pay using a monthly invoice, one of the most popular ways German consumers pay online.
eBay announced the latest in its series of exclusive drops from the closets of some of fashion and entertainment's most influential figures with 'From The Collection: Margherita Maccapani Missoni.' The collection features exclusive pre-owned, vintage and archival pieces curated by the fashion designer.

(More details at the link.)

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Feb 26 (Reuters) - E-commerce firm eBay (EBAY.O), opens new tab forecast first-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates on Wednesday, signaling weak demand for products such as collector's items and refurbished goods.
Ebay's shares fell about 7% in extended trading.
High interest rates and persistent inflation have hampered U.S. consumer spending for two years, leading to sluggish demand for non-essential items such as collectibles and luxury accessories.

EBay has been pressurized by slowing advertising revenue. The company expects revenue in the range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion for the quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.59 billion according to data compiled by LSEG.
It sees first-quarter adjusted earnings between $1.32 and $1.36 per share, the midpoint of which is above estimates of $1.33.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Basically, ebay had a good Q4 , but investors were expecting a stronger forecast for Q1 than ebay provided. This isn't unusual for ebay, which tends to lean conservative when it comes to its forecasts. 

All in all, I'd say ebay is in no danger of vanishing anytime soon LOL

[slippinjimmy]

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@tobaccocardyahoo wrote:

Those results are respectable and the conservative guidance is appropriate.

Still would not buy their stock, but I cannot think of anything which would motivate me to.

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I don't think I would buy it right now either.

I SHOULD have loaded up a year ago........

Not much to cheer about but it's good to see that the numbers are still going in the right direction. After Hours trading value has taken a big drop but that is not unusual, to get a clear view of what the market thinks one needs to wait until next week.

One thing of note, the revenue from Promotions continues to rise, I like this because it helps protect those who don't use Promotions from more dramatic fee increases.

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[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

I missed parts of the Call, but a couple things:

ebay didn't really give any details about the Facebook Marketplace "test" but at one point I think ebay indicated they did not feel it would have a material impact on Q1 (and maybe 2025 as a whole). 

While ebay referred to tariffs and uncertainty in general terms, Jamie played down the impact on ebay's China business, noting that 3/4 of items from China are "forward deployed" (already in US warehouses) and ebay claims it does not rely very much on de minimis. 

There was a hint that suggests they will be adding some features to Ads, especially the newer types (such as store ads), but no details.

I'm sure @valueaddedresource will have more details on her blog within the next few days.

[luckythewinner]

I'm sure a few here are disappointed that their predictions about eBay's demise have not come true.

[chapeau-noir]

That's cautiously optimistic, which is, in fact, decent news.

Pedant Alert! "EBay has been pressurized by slowing advertising revenue." pressurized?What on earth is wrong with simply saying "pressured"? I'm coming across this even in the semi-academic stuff I read in my research job.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Some of this is me reading between the lines, so make of it what you will. I don't yet have the transcript available from the earnings call.

1. While ebay is obviously aware of the potential tariff impact , they played down the impact on their China trade. Unfortunately, I don't think anyone actually asked about Canada specifically. 

2. They made a point to stress that ebay is not really a "new, in season" platform, and clearly see that fact as a real platform strength at the moment. 

3. While they acknowledged buyer pullback was a possibility at the present time, they also stressed that their Focus Categories in particular (designer handbags, expensive sneakers, etc) target "enthusiast buyers" with ample disposable income, and they haven't been seeing a pullback among those buyers. So, again, ebay feels they have a certain amount of insulation built into the platform. Those with ample disposable income will probably continue to spend, and those who have less and are pulling back might be more willing to buy secondhand (as opposed to "new, in season."

4. They downplayed the likely impact of the FBMP test, at least for now. 

5. We can expect to see a lot more AI going forward. 

6. They believe they still have plenty of room to grow the Ads business. I suspect we'll see some new stuff with Store Ads. And maybe with stores more generally.

For me, there was nothing here that has made me rethink my 2025 plans. YMMV.

[chapeau-noir]

Liz made some very pertinent points in her latest newsletter. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@chapeau-noir and I agree with those points. 

[valueaddedresource]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

There was a hint that suggests they will be adding some features to Ads, especially the newer types (such as store ads), but no details.

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques  I had noticed an interesting addition to the marketing terms when they updated in December which said (bold part was the only thing that was changed/added):

These Marketing Program Terms (the "Marketing Program Terms") describe the terms pursuant to which eBay offers you access to our marketing services, which help you promote your products (or those of your authorized sellers) on and off eBay, and all related services, applications and tools (collectively, the "Marketing Services").

I surmised at the time that eBay may be planning on introducing the ability for brands to purchase ads directing to their authorized sellers on eBay, regardless of whether or not the brand itself sells directly on the platform....and from the comments on the call yesterday it sounds like that's exactly what they are working on (among other things).

So in theory, for example, a company like Apple may be able to choose to purchase both on and off site ads directing to authorized or certified refurbished sellers' stores or listings on eBay.

It's not entirely clear to me why big brands would do that vs directing ad spend to their own stores/direct channels, except maybe in limited situations like cert refurb if the brand doesn't do that themselves?

But assuming brands hop on board, it would obviously be great for eBay since brands likely have much larger ad budgets than individual sellers but....that also then could mean individual sellers would be competing against those bigger budgets to try to get their ads seen...and around and around the ad revenue ratcheting continues to go.

Will definitely be interesting to see how that all shakes out.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Yes, I caught that too...about brands. Of course, Jamie provided no details. One thing we can say with some certainty: ebay definitely sees the ads business as a significant part of their business model, and one that probably has more growth rate potential than GMV. I fully expect they will be tinkering with the existing ad tools and adding new ones this year. The Ads Team didn't get to be "team of the year" for nothing LOL

Thinking about fashion, for example, more brands are taking back used clothing...would those brands find it easier to sell that stuff on ebay? (or at least, to use ebay as one conduit for sales?) It's certainly possible, and we know "pre-loved fashion" is the Focus Category du jour...So, yes, reconditioned brands, etc....there are a lot of possibilities.

I was a little surprised that the callers didn't push for more details about FBMP, but this isn't their first rodeo...they probably knew Jamie wasn't going to say any more than he did say. Makes me wonder if we'll get any real details at the Check In....

[valueaddedresource]

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques yeah there's really only so much analysts can do on the call - a few of them tried to get more detail about FBMP partnership but Jamie either danced around it or said they don't discuss "the economics" of specific initiatives.

My guess is at the check in we might get a high level demo/mock up showing what it could look like, but I don't expect anything more than that.