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Where is everybody going?

Perhaps many of you have already seen this data. If not, well, maybe this will bridle the enthusiasm of those who dismiss the cries for help of those on the end of the ripple. This is the data that is usually NOT shared with Q2 results, at least without the shiny ribbon tied around it.

 

https://www.businessofapps.com/data/ebay-statistics/

 

The data reflects a significant retreat all the way back to 2013 numbers.  But the most striking number was the loss of 1-million sellers per year since 2018. Therefore, my question is.... where are they going? 

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Where is everybody going?


@vintagecraze50 wrote:

They are loosing their one and gone cheap buyers and sellers. Many other sites and places to sell your junk cheap. This is not a garage sale site anymore. Innovation involves a refocus on this site being a place to attract people with money and lots of it. So if you want to be here sell something to these wealthy customers.


@vintagecraze50 losing the "one and done cheap buyers and sellers" is one thing, but in order for the strategy to work, eBay needs to show they can bring in and keep those "high value" "enthusiast" buyers....and I'm not so sure they're success at that is as great as they want us to believe.

 

I only went back a year, but just based on statements from the Chief Financial Officer alone, it appears they actually lost about a million "enthusiast buyers" in the last year and the average annual spend has gone from "over" $3,000 to "roughly" $3,000 - maybe not a significant drop, but certainly not significant growth either.

 

Q2 2022 - "Enthusiast buyers made up approximately 17 million of our active buyers in Q2...average spend among enthusiast buyers grew sequentially and remains over $3,000 annually."

 

Q3 2022 - "Enthusiast buyers accounted for approximately 17 million of our active buyers in Q3...average spend per user grew sequentially and continues to be healthy at over $3,000 per year."

 

Q4 2022 - "Enthusiast buyers accounted for over 16 million of our active buyers in Q4...average spend per enthusiast rose again sequentially and continues to be healthy at above $3,000 annually."

 

Q1 2023 - "Enthusiast buyers remained relatively stable sequentially at 16 million in Q1...and on average, spend approximately $3,000 annually."

 

Q2 2023 - "Enthusiast buyers was stable at 16 million in Q2...spend per enthusiast grew modestly year-over-year, averaging roughly $3,000 annually."

Message 16 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

They are loosing their one and gone cheap buyers and sellers. Many other sites and places to sell your junk cheap. This is not a garage sale site anymore. Innovation involves a refocus on this site being a place to attract people with money and lots of it. So if you want to be here sell something to these wealthy customers.

 

     There are also a lot of other sites that sell quality items, generally in a focused category area, that for me personally are a lot more attractive than eBay. I buy a lot of personal collectables, tools, clothing, etc. that I don't even bother checking for on eBay for a couple of reasons. First the search engines is less than optimal and second simply because the prices on the other venues are less, in some cases considerably less. 

Message 17 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

Unfortunately for many eBay stats, going back to 2013 doesn't give an accurate picture because at the end of 2021, eBay changed their definition of GMV (which also changed the definition of Active Sellers and Active Buyers) and restated those figures only going back to Q1 2018.

 

     You also have to remember GMV is an inflated figure and bolstered by a number of factors that eBay does not control. Inflation, increased shipping costs and the states passage of ecommerce sales tax laws in the wake of the Supreme Court decision in Wayfair vs South Dakota. Since eBay calculates GMV based on the TOTAL transaction those costs are included in the GMV. 

     GMV is also inflated since it does not subtract buyer refunds and returns which in some categories can be high. The return situation has increased so much some retailers and ecommerce sites are holding the buyer responsible for paying the return shipping costs, including Amazon in some cases. 

     I invest heavily in the stock market and generally ignore the GMV of companies that report it. There are better indicators of how  company is performing and often those make the GMV even less relevant. 

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Where is everybody going?



This is the data that is usually NOT shared with Q2 results

All that data is shared with the quarterly results. 

 

Therefore, my question is.... where are they going

Some have stopped buying. 

Some went to Etsy. 

Some went to Amazon. 

Some went to Discogs. 

Some went to WalMart. 

Some went to Walgreens. 

Some went directly to vendor sites. 

Buyers have so many more options than they did just a few years ago, especially for new commodity items.

Message 19 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

This is the data that is usually NOT shared with Q2 results

All that data is shared with the quarterly results. 

 

Therefore, my question is.... where are they going

Some have stopped buying. 

Some went to Etsy. 

Some went to Amazon. 

Some went to Discogs. 

Some went to WalMart. 

Some went to Walgreens. 

Some went directly to vendor sites. 

Buyers have so many more options than they did just a few years ago, especially for new commodity items.

 

     In addition to the buyers going to Amazon so are a lot of third party sellers. I have a pretty hefty investment in Amazon stock so I watch and read their quarterly reports and other investor releases. Third party sellers now represent about 24% of the most recent quarterly revenue and 90% of those sellers are using Amazon FBA to store, sell and ship their items. I suspect a lot of those may be international third party sellers.

     EBay has tried a similar model for trading cards but not sure how successful that has been. 

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Where is everybody going?

As always, how bad things are is a function of what you sell

 

Some items which had great sales and great profit have more competition now.

 

Some entire categories of items have a lack in interest now, not only on Ebay but all over the internet and in the physical universe.

 

The Internet is no longer a novel and fun way to shop, it is a normal part of living, and many people are spending less time shopping, either because they have a life, or because they do not have enough money.

 

 

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Where is everybody going?


@dbfolks166mt wrote:

Third party sellers now represent about 24% of the most recent quarterly revenue and 90% of those sellers are using Amazon FBA to store, sell and ship their items


According to Statista, third party sellers represent 59% of paid units in Q1 2023.

Message 22 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

My most profitable years were 2015-2018. Very interesting 

Message 23 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

I think most people realized that they were better off with a 9-5 job that paid minimum wage and had some benefits (like an occasional day off).

Message 24 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

As to "Active sellers"---If the number had been increasing, ebay would have reported those numbers. I agree with valueaddedresource--- it is safe to say the number has been decreasing.

 

If I were ebay, I would be even more concerned about the fact that a growing number of their sellers who are still here are now cross-listing or are multi channel in that they list some things here and other items (which once would have been here) elsewhere. Years ago, multi channel selling was pretty much the province of larger sellers using tools like Channel Advisor. But today even small sellers are multi channel. With a fee structure based primarily on fees applied to sales, ebay is being impacted by so many of those sales being made elsewhere. 

 

 

 

 

Message 25 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

For every one that leaves a new one comes. If there are 2,000 items listed by 100 sellers there will still be 1,000 items listed by 50 sellers. Buyers have plenty of choices so the total amount of actual sales does not necessarily drop by much. There are always going to be plenty of sellers. The more that leaves actually helps those that stay because of less competition.

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Where is everybody going?

@vintagecraze50 

I don't object to the basic premise of Focus Categories. Many of us have long said ebay needs to realize one size doesn't fit all, and Focus Categories are proof that we were right. The problem I have with Focus Categories is the execution of the strategy. It doesn't really work when you ignore most everything but the chosen few, and also when it takes so long to add Focus Categories. Within the last two years, ebay hasn't really added anything much since it added P&A---oh sure, ebay now authenticates baby sneakers as well as adult, and ebay recently added higher end "street wear" as a focus category, but even Jamie admitted this is basically a bolt on for sneaker buyers, who also buy a lot of street wear. 

 

ebay touts the fact that people who spend "x" on , say, luxury watches, also spend "y" on other stuff on the site. But since ebay has been ignoring that other stuff, much of it has been going elsewhere, reducing the breadth of ebay's inventory...and many of the Focus Category buyers might be buying outside their focus category, but that doesn't mean they are buying in a wide variety of categories overall.

 

The company seems incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time---but that's exactly what they need to do, or they will lose more and more of the non focus category sales to other sites. 

 

I have some slight hope that ebay has started to realize this. I noticed yesterday that they are offering (out of ebay's pocket, at least in part, I'm guessing) 20% off coupons for "back to school"...while undoubtedly some of this stuff is in the Focus Categories, I don't think it all is. This leads me to believe that ebay has finally recognized that they can't completely ignore all the non-focus categories, because competitors are crushing them. (Couponing was something the current CEO called out as a mistake back when Wenig did it...but here we are....)

 

I got the impression from the Q2 conference call, despite all the talk about enthusiast buyers,  that ebay was talking about doing  more for the "horizontals" (that is, the rest of us, the site itself). This seems to me an admission that they know they've been neglecting us (except for the adsteam). If we actually see ebay run a Holiday Marketing campaign for the site this year, well, to me that will be confirmation that they know just how much trouble they've gotten themselves into by pretending the rest of the site really doesn't matter.

 

As i said, I have some slight hope about all this, but it's only slight. 

 

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Where is everybody going?


@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@vintagecraze50 

I don't object to the basic premise of Focus Categories. Many of us have long said ebay needs to realize one size doesn't fit all, and Focus Categories are proof that we were right. The problem I have with Focus Categories is the execution of the strategy. It doesn't really work when you ignore most everything but the chosen few, and also when it takes so long to add Focus Categories. Within the last two years, ebay hasn't really added anything much since it added P&A---oh sure, ebay now authenticates baby sneakers as well as adult, and ebay recently added higher end "street wear" as a focus category, but even Jamie admitted this is basically a bolt on for sneaker buyers, who also buy a lot of street wear. 

 

ebay touts the fact that people who spend "x" on , say, luxury watches, also spend "y" on other stuff on the site. But since ebay has been ignoring that other stuff, much of it has been going elsewhere, reducing the breadth of ebay's inventory...and many of the Focus Category buyers might be buying outside their focus category, but that doesn't mean they are buying in a wide variety of categories overall.

 

The company seems incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time---but that's exactly what they need to do, or they will lose more and more of the non focus category sales to other sites. 

 

I have some slight hope that ebay has started to realize this. I noticed yesterday that they are offering (out of ebay's pocket, at least in part, I'm guessing) 20% off coupons for "back to school"...while undoubtedly some of this stuff is in the Focus Categories, I don't think it all is. This leads me to believe that ebay has finally recognized that they can't completely ignore all the non-focus categories, because competitors are crushing them. (Couponing was something the current CEO called out as a mistake back when Wenig did it...but here we are....)

 

I got the impression from the Q2 conference call, despite all the talk about enthusiast buyers,  that ebay was talking about doing  more for the "horizontals" (that is, the rest of us, the site itself). This seems to me an admission that they know they've been neglecting us (except for the adsteam). If we actually see ebay run a Holiday Marketing campaign for the site this year, well, to me that will be confirmation that they know just how much trouble they've gotten themselves into by pretending the rest of the site really doesn't matter.

 

As i said, I have some slight hope about all this, but it's only slight. 

 


@my-cottage-books-and-antiques to add on to this, while Jamie likes to talk about what the vertical focus and other strategies/programs are bringing in...they bury the costs involved deeper in the financial reports and don't talk about them in the press release. 😉

 

2023-07-29_14-58-16.jpg

 

In Q2 alone, eBay reported a $27M increase in costs related to EIS and $15M increase related to expansion of authentication.

 

For 2023 so far, they've seen a a $39M increase due to EIS, $28M increase due to authentication, and $12M increase due to customer support (not exactly relevant to the vertical focus discussion but interesting and I suspect a good chunk of that may be in developing and deploying more AI chatbot and self help resources than highly trained human agents).

 

Keep in mind - that's not total spending, that's just the amount of increase over the same period of the previous year.

 

Also keep in mind, I'm not necessarily saying those costs alone make the strategy worthless or mean there's nothing positive about it - just that both costs and benefits should be part of the same conversation when analyzing the real value of these programs...and they very rarely are.

Message 28 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

No 2 sellers are alike.     Every experience is unique to that individual.

 

June 2023  was in the  top 5 best selling months I've had in 23+  years.

 July  2023  was down 27%  from June and comes in about average for sales.

 

Here's an interesting statistic.     Of my 323  sales for July,

 

More than 50% were Canada or overseas which is a statistic that is climbing for me.  

Also more than 50%  were new,  first time buyers.    

 

I can (But won't)  name sellers that have left,   Or are going to leave,   Or are thriving and making money.  

 

Your mileage as always,    May vary.   

 

 

Message 29 of 60
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Where is everybody going?

Do you have any idea how many financial investors would scoff at your "take" on GMV?
Ignoring a rather important metric that's used to gauge the growth (or decline) of any selling platform would be puzzling to them. They think it's "relevant".
I,too, invest "heavily in the stock market".
It's called my 401 K. (LOL).
And have little control over what individual stocks they add.
But rest assured, they have "experts" that carefully review the GMV of any "selling" entity they add to their BILLIONS of dollars "investment fund".
Oh....and you think "those factors" (inflation, sales taxes, etc) you mentioned aren't also affecting ALL selling platforms?
Sure...some platforms can have a one-off or even several disappointing GMV quarterly reports as they transition through changes. 
But when you see an over 2 year decline in GMV, you'd be foolish not to be concerned.
Wall Street is.
And that's where we are.

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