02-01-2020 04:01 PM - edited 02-01-2020 04:05 PM
So, just out of curiosity, and because of the confirmed Corona virus cases now being at 8 (to be expected to rise), I thought I would run a search for respiratory masks. Many search results came up, some for respiratory paper masks, and others that look like or are called a gas mask. So far so good, but when I looked at where the seller is located, in almost all cases, the item was listed as shipping from - China.
This brings up some thoughts. Obviously, I will not order one from China, although the CDC says the virus will not survive on objects, exposed to air, for more than 48 hrs. But still. The distance is too big and if anything is wrong with the item, you cannot pay the highly expensive returns. Several of the sellers I looked at are "currently away." Hmm, I hope they are not ill or are otherwise affected by the virus. I just read in the news that China restricted the free movement of people - those who are not suspected of harboring the vius - to only venture outside when they are either working in grocery stores or healthcare, or service-type jobs, e.g. gas station. Most other people are told to stay home and only every second day can 1 person from each home, go shopping.
While these thoughts were from the buyer's perspective, there are other things that pop into mind: what if, for some reason, all the goods coming from infected areas - currently, 23 countries are on the list, with varying numbers of infected patients, and 259 dead / 12,800 infected in China alone - would be banned from entering the U.S.A.? Aside from the effects of such situation on the Chinese people or Chinese eBay sellers, would such a temporary ban on their producst affect the ebay.usa marketplace, in that it would be, even for a short period of time, dominated by U.S.A. sellers' listings?
A ban on all items shipped from China will probably never matrialize; but just out of curiosity, what would eBay do if, albeit for just a few days, it would have to rely on USA sellers solely (on this USA site)? Would we all be selling more?
PW
02-02-2020 08:18 AM
@prettywoman-2012 wrote:Would we all be selling more?
No, we would not all be selling more.
A seller who does not have competition from China would probably not sell more.
A seller with items that no one wants would probably not sell more.
A seller whose prices are uncompetitive would probably not sell more.
One answer to a question like that cannot possibly fit all of the millions of sellers here!
02-02-2020 08:32 AM
Well, right now everything coming from china is slow anyway, since they extended chinese new year until 2/9 because of this. So a lot are still off from work.
02-02-2020 10:27 AM
Just speaking about respiratory masks..
What good would they do?
I heard a top medical doctor on ABC stating..
that those masks do not protect the people that wear them, for contracting the flu.
The masks are only for those who already have the flu, (or suspect they do) and it is for decreasing the possibility that they (the infected) can spread it to others.
Lynn
02-02-2020 11:07 AM - edited 02-02-2020 11:08 AM
That's basically what the CDC says, too. The loose-fitting masks can block airborne droplets (which could contain viruses) but not the actual tiny viruses themselves. So if a person is ill, the mask will block much (but not all) of the droplets they exhale. And on a well person they will reduce (but not eliminate) inhaling airborne droplets which might contain viruses.
As with any marginally-effective precaution, there is a risk of a false sense of security, and we hope that those who choose to wear masks also heed the expert advice about measures that are demonstrably effective, such as hand-washing and avoiding those who are ill or potentially ill. Since the new coronavirus is contagious before a person is symptomatic, that's a lot of people especially if you're in Wuhan. If you're in the US, not so much.
02-02-2020 05:05 PM
If you are concerned about the corona virus, why would you order masks online and wait for them to be shipped to you?
If the CDC advises that the virus cannot survive on objects being shipped, why are you commenting about not buying from China? Do you claim to know something that we and the CDC do not? Are you just trying to put the fear of buying online into peoples minds?
02-02-2020 11:34 PM - edited 02-02-2020 11:36 PM
@chapeau-noir wrote:We might recall the SARS scare in the early oughts where this happened before, but manufacturing is a lot more complex now, so the impact on the supply chain may be that much longer. What is more liable to happen is an extension of the manufacturing slow-downs that already occur, for example, in the Lunar New Year, where factories shutter for a period of time. The US may want to continue to import, but industrial production in China may slow. As for eBay relying on USA sellers - Amazon with its huge base of Chinese sellers may be impacted more. Time will tell, I guess.
The SARS virus only had about 6,000 recorded infections total and only 890 or so people died from it, worldwide (if the reported numbers are correct, which is an IF). The corona virus has already well over 15,000 reported infections (again, IF the reports are factual) and over 300 dead. These numbers indicate that the corona virus infections will increase, at least until it reaches its peak point, expected to happen at or around a week from now, according to Chinese Docs. However, any such prediction is difficult to make when the virus is entering in its first phase in most of the other countries, other than China. An unknown number of people will be infected there.
I don't know if this is correct, but yesterday someone in a chat said that the corona virus is NOT completely dead after 2 days, on objects - as I mentioned earlier. According to that person, a Chinese Doc at the equivalent of our CDC said that in a moist environment, it can survive longer, such as ships on the ocean. When it dies out, it does not die, rather, if it is in a moist environment again, it will reactivate itself, per this Doc. Not sure where the poster read this as there was no reference provided in the chat room, but if this is indeed true, then the scenario of banning deliveries from China is more likely to happen. It is entirely possible that he misunderstood something.
Anyways, this is off topic a bit, as the purpose of this thread was to think about what would eBay do if it had to rely on its American and I may add, Canadian (same continent) sellers, as it did in the beginning of eBay, for whatever reason - not just this virus.
PW
02-02-2020 11:42 PM
@blue_ridge_studio wrote:The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus | Zero Hedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/global-supply-demand-shock-coronavirus
Interesting article, thank you for sharing! The numbers are already obsolete, because the number of dead and those who are infected has already reached higher levels, but the core issues at hand (global economy will suffer, at least temporatrily) appear to be correct. There really is not much we can predict, at this point, as even the most well-trained healthcare professionals differ in opinions.
PW
02-02-2020 11:43 PM
@luckythewinner wrote:
@prettywoman-2012 wrote:Would we all be selling more?
No, we would not all be selling more.
A seller who does not have competition from China would probably not sell more.
A seller with items that no one wants would probably not sell more.
A seller whose prices are uncompetitive would probably not sell more.
One answer to a question like that cannot possibly fit all of the millions of sellers here!
You are assuming that there are the majority of sellers who are not happy with the number of their sales are to be blamed for that. I am sorry, but I could not disagree more.
PW
02-02-2020 11:46 PM
@18704d wrote:
Just speaking about respiratory masks..
What good would they do?
I heard a top medical doctor on ABC stating..
that those masks do not protect the people that wear them, for contracting the flu.
The masks are only for those who already have the flu, (or suspect they do) and it is for decreasing the possibility that they (the infected) can spread it to others.
Lynn
You are correct (and so is the Doc), However, I was not looking for surgical but full protection respiratory masks, the ones with the discs on both sides and exchangable filters. Those are still recommended, by many sources. And yes to the recommendation also including those with a compromised immune system.
PW
02-02-2020 11:52 PM
@7606dennis wrote:If you are concerned about the corona virus, why would you order masks online and wait for them to be shipped to you?
If the CDC advises that the virus cannot survive on objects being shipped, why are you commenting about not buying from China? Do you claim to know something that we and the CDC do not? Are you just trying to put the fear of buying online into peoples minds?
Yikes. I was not trying to order the mask from China. Please read again - I said when looking for those, it strikes me that the majority of sellers offering them are in China. A HUGE difference from how you interpreted my words.
As to your second question: Yes, I am not sure anymore how long they survive (the viruses). See my post above in response to Chapeau.
As to trying to stir fears: you cannot be serious... it is hard to stir fears with something as scary as this virus is. Yet, I was not really trying to discuss the virus itself - if you read it again, you will see that I was just following a trail of thought. One could substitute the virus thing for just about any other possible scenario that would or could make eBay rely on US sellers, at least temporarily. This discussion went WAY off track, far from its originally intended purpose.
PW
02-03-2020 07:39 AM
02-03-2020 08:27 AM
Just some casual observations:
- China has shut down their social media (why) but not their animal markets (for food) that were the source of all their previous breakouts. Don't want people to know how bad?
-How long it lives beyond 'a cough' is still speculation
-How much goods were already in the supply chain for $ stores, auto parts, etc.
-Will it impact the import of illegal oxycontine and other drugs?
-China's plan is to be the #1 economy and world leader and will do anything to accomplish the goal, ie. import officials just stopped a couple of boxes containing illegally printed (counterfeit) US $ to the tune of 1 BILLION $$$. How many shipments have they missed? How much will it take to impact our economy? To What lengths will they go?
02-03-2020 12:51 PM - edited 02-03-2020 12:53 PM
@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:
prettywoman,
I see your point. Your question really is: If something caused the flow of Chinese merchandise to the US to completely stop, what would ebay do? I think that's nearly impossible to answer with any real accuracy, because so much would depend on why the merchandise stopped coming, and the effect of the "why" on the overall economy. One seemingly obvious point is that consumers (and ebay) would have to depend on other sellers. And other products? Hard to say. If trade history in general is any indication, if the ban was aimed at Chinese products being exported to the US, it is very likely that Chinese sellers (or others) would set up warehouses in Canada and elsewhere, and China would ship to Canada, and the products would be shipped to the US via Canada (or some other foreign country).
A whole different scenario if Chinese production comes to a halt because factory workers are sent home due to the virus. But whatever the cause, the effect would be profound, because China is such a large global trading partner for not just the US, but many other countries as well.
Thank you for an intelligent response. Finally, a few people are getting it. Perhaps it is my fault that I was not clear about this, but yes, that is exactly what I was taking about. I think you have a very valid point about the probability of Chinese sellers just shipping their goods to Canada (the same way they have been doing it before, and also to the UK, Australia, etc.) and just list them as "Ships from..." I often see the same pearl earrings, for example, same pictures, shipped from all those countries. Unless all other countries would also ban the imports, there would be some way for those items to be advertised on eBay U.S.A. I did not think about this.
I also know, a lot of people think eBay U.S.A. can never go back to how it was in the beginning, and maybe this is correct. Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I think eBay could separate its marketplace for China - the same way it did with ebay.ca and ebay.au and ebay for Germany, France, etc. Then those who only want American sellers could do that here, and those who wanted to search for Chinese sellers' items could log in to eBay China. Just a thought.
I was recently looking for genuine leather satchels here. Although I have entered leather for material and satchel, for style, and even vintage once, before anything else, I was shown all kinds of artificial material bags made in China (it is easy to see because of their mannequins presenting those bags), many of which were not even a "satchel" style. Page after page. Hundreds and hundreds of them. One really has to be inventive to locate now anything that is true vintage or genuine silver, genuine leather - and some may not want anything else but Vegan, that is fine, but they may still be looking for vintage or some specific brand that is buried under an avalanche of these other listings. Masses of these products - often with the same generic photo - are offered from abroad and the only difference is that some cost a few pennies less. Meanwhile, if you are not careful, you may lose hundreds of listings if you fail to save those elsewhere, like Auctiva and the similar services and you go over the 3 months period you can list those. Assuming eBay has this restriction in place in order to free up its servers, why not store the Chinese listings on another server and do away with the silly 3 months rule?
One of the reasons I so loved eBay in the beginning was the unique items it offered. There is nothing unique in mass-produced, ill-described and look-alike items. I think it is quite irresponsible and gives eBay today a rather bad reputation that could be changed, if they wanted to. But do they? If I wanted to shop on Alibaba, I would, it is just that I do not wish to and when I shop here on eBay, I am looking for the unique items. Maybe I am one of those Dinosaurs that have strange buying habits or selling preferences, but I cannot imagibe stocking and selling those items, either.
PW
02-03-2020 04:24 PM
Would their listing state this, if their stock would already be present in our country?
If it did, they could be faced with a Not As Described dispute, because the item was advertised as shipping directly from China, but actually shipped from the USA.
Which is the opposite of what happens constantly with droppshipping US sellers who put their own location down instead of the FOB location.
A couple of comments.
I wonder if Chinese manufacturers will be exporting wholesale to the USA and shipping from a warehouse in Seattle or San Diego, with the 24% tariff on US goods the importers are supposed to pay?
This would not affect single item imports, because US residents have an $800 duty-free allowance.
Since the buyer pays for all costs, including shipping, the advantage of warehousing in the US may disappear.
And keep in mind that there have been nearly 9000 DEATHS this winter in the USA from flu.
There has been ONE death outside of China from the coronavirus-- in the Philippines.
Get a flu shot.
02-03-2020 04:36 PM - edited 02-03-2020 04:38 PM
The SARS virus only had about 6,000 recorded infections total and only 890 or so people died from it, worldwide (if the reported numbers are correct, which is an IF). The corona virus has already well over 15,000 reported infections (again, IF the reports are factual) and over 300 dead.
Ratios.
890 out of 6000 is one in 6.7 patients died from SARS.
300 out of 15,000 is one in 50 patients dying from coronavirus.
If (and again big IF) the ratio continues, a lot of people will get sick, but the coronavirus is less likely to be fatal.
Compare that with the flu which this winter so far over 180,000 US residents have been hospitalized (and more stayed home sick) and 10,000 have died.
And there is a vaccine for the flu.
What should you really be concerned about?