The Myth of the Election Slowdown.

[onefootflippers]

I hear the "Things are slow because of the election." theory floated every single election. 

You hear sellers who are extremely emotionally invested in politics continually floating the idea that other people are not spending because of the upcoming election. What I have never heard once was an actual person saying that they were putting off making mundane purchases because of the election. 

The huge majority of the population is not all that interested in politics and does not follow them all that carefully even if they do have their favored party.

The amount of people not shopping because they are afraid of the election outcome is so tiny that it could never be more than a blip in the data.

[fbusoni]

---

@gamersbaystore wrote:

Its not a myth that the economy has been in decline since Biden took office, and it only continues to deteriorate. That's reality, whether anyone wants to admit it or not, and its the whole reason sales are so sluggish right now.

---

Whether one agrees with you or not, there are far more nuanced and sophisticated ways to share one's perspective.   

Textbook case of the sort of lack of self control that leads me to block buyers, and sellers alike.

Thanks for the heads up.

[vintagecraze50]

I love that. I posted Rosanna saying the same thing a few posts ago. She’s incredibly intelligent.

[vintagecraze50]

---

@chapeau-noir wrote:

 ............................

---

If it ain’t this is that. LOL!

[vintagecraze50]

---

@onefootflippers wrote:

I hear the "Things are slow because of the election." theory floated every single election. 

You hear sellers who are extremely emotionally invested in politics continually floating the idea that other people are not spending because of the upcoming election. What I have never heard once was an actual person saying that they were putting off making mundane purchases because of the election. 

The huge majority of the population is not all that interested in politics and does not follow them all that carefully even if they do have their favored party.

The amount of people not shopping because they are afraid of the election outcome is so tiny that it could never be more than a blip in the data.

---

I JUST HOPE USPS POSTMASTER GENERAL DEJOY, does not slow down the deliveries during the election for his BUD.

[meme6253]

How would you possibly know what the huge majority of the population is interested in?, & If you are correct about not following things carefully, but have a favored candidate, That is a Major Problem in & of itself, If you don't have enough knowledge about your candidate,Then you need to be far more invested in making your choice instead of making a careless choice!

[onefootflippers]

---

@meme6253 wrote:

How would you possibly know what the huge majority of the population is interested in?, & If you are correct about not following things carefully, but have a favored candidate, That is a Major Problem in & of itself, If you don't have enough knowledge about your candidate,Then you need to be far more invested in making your choice instead of making a careless choice!

---

I have friends, I know people, I have lived in the world. I have known enough people to figure out that maybe 1 person in 10 is really invested in politics and the rest of them just aren't. 

Both parties love the voters who make careless choices, that is what all that campaign advertising money is about. 

I am personally not highly invested in politics because it is largely pointless, all major social and political change is at the source driven by the overwhelming trends and wishes of the public, and all one party or the other is going to do is either delay or speed up the inevitable. 

[luckythewinner]

The amount of people not shopping because they are afraid of the election outcome is so tiny that it could never be more than a blip in the data

eBay measures and reports their Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) every quarter. It has been remarkable consistent from quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year, with a slight bump in Q4 due to the holidays.

• It was between $18b and $19b per quarter from 2018 to 2020.
• When the pandemic hit in Q1 2020, it jumped sharply to $24b.
• As the pandemic eased, it dropped right back to $18b in Q2 2022. 
• It has been between $18b and $19b per quarter from 2022 to now.

Other than the pandemic, I do not think the economy, weather, unemployment, stock market, wages, housing prices, mortgage rates, or anything else has affected the overall level of buying on eBay very much at all.

[sextons-sweet-deals]

If we could just take all that money that is donated by corporations, billionaires, private investors for their special interests / potential favors from the elected along with all the social media advertising like TV adds, internet and social media platforms, getting the USPS junk mail, the text messages and robocalls that we did not ask for (our info. being sold) and turn that into something more positive for the country.

I wish all of the political campaign stuff would only happen every four years rather than every two years because it has now become more of a 365 day a year in your face news and advertising. 

[tobaccocardyahoo]

---

@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@dirk12955 Did you read the article I posted?

The article basically reviews data and concludes that the run up to an election has little if any influence on retail in the US. 

So, my guess would be: the US election has nothing to do with your international sales decline.

---

Aggregate data is often misleading because there are always segments of markets and economies which run counter to trends.

The effects of any event may be profound but are masked by aggregate data which is often chosen because it masks trends which are troublesome or embarrassing.

Remember the old adage "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."

[meme6253]

I Completely agree, I find it Very Concerning.

[lux.ra_14]

Re the worth of aggregate data ... This is a peer-reviewed study that looked at every presidential election from 1960 to 2016. That's 15 election cycles.

https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA476729281&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=00...

The conclusion ***with emphasis added for the amateur political scientists and economists among us:

In short, we do not find any evidence of adverse effects on economic activity in presidential election years.

[meme6253]

I have friends & know people too, & I live in the Real world & just because a handful  of people say so, Don't make it so., I still insist careless choices are dangerous!

[fbusoni]

Corporations are people, and money is free speech.  SCOTUS

[sextons-sweet-deals]

Are you actually saying that money bribe / influence is, okay?

Please give us all your complete details of your post. 

[monroe67]

"Are you actually saying that money bribe / influence is, okay?"

Look up the US Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission.  
The decision date was January 21, 2010.  It got a lot of press coverage at the time.  

As for "corporations are people", that was a line spoken by Mitt Romney during his presidential campaign in the summer of 2011.  You may have noticed he was not  elected to the presidency of the United States.