Predicted Inflation and Selling Strategy

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

I posted this to another thread, but it was suggested that I start a new thread instead (presumably with the hope that posters will stay focused on the topic, and not derail it by talking politics). So, here goes:

Setting aside the tariff issue itself, I've got a question for those who source within the USA :

IF inflation increases dramatically as predicted by many , do you have any particular plans or strategy to deal with it AS A SELLER?

[blueduece58]

I mostly sell wants and not needs. Also, this is just a hobby for me as I am getting rid of a lot of my collectible 1:72 & 1:43 diecast planes, tanks and cars I collected over the last 25+ years, and this is not my main source of income. I don't plan to change anything and will keep listing as I always do. I try to keep my prices as competitive as possible, and I don't really worry about profit or loss.

I feel sorry for those who rely on eBay for the majority of their income. It doesn't look good in the near future depending on where you source your items from.

[tobaccocardyahoo]

Been selling online for a lot of years.

No matter what the economy did, the only tool that ever worked consistently for me was if I wanted to make more money, I needed to increase the number of items I had for sale.

Even in the Great Depression, (no, that was before my time), people made money selling stuff, often stuff that was not a necessity. Some people selling such stuff even got rich.

As a New Englander (not a native), finding stuff I could afford to buy was not a problem. In New England, many people never went to the dump until the barn was full.

This time around, I am trying hard not to cross a line in the amount of clutter in my primary residence. This is why I have a bit under 5k listings. If I needed more money, I would probably cross that line, since I could easily list another 15k items, and with some effort, twice that.

[mam98031]

For me.  I will increase prices as necessary.  I am not large enough to be able to eat the losses in the hopes that things will improve in short order.  I will have to increase pricing if it affects what I sell.

[12345jamesstamps]

As a seller keeping my prices under other sellers will help in me selling my items.

Inflation shouldn't affect a seller unless they are buying 'new' and reselling it...

And postage going up...I prefer to keep it cheap and not raise it.

Very competitive here on eBay and can't see raising the cost of an item or postage on anything will help one sell more.

Holding on to items forever hoping to sell them seems like a waste of time.

Maybe listing new better deals might attract some potential buyers...and I will be doing that.

Although my shipping supplies might go up...there are always sales out there in stores.

Inflation affects those who do not look for sales or items on sale.

I can't understand how a seller needs to get the exact shipping charge of an item for sale.

[chapeau-noir]

Inflation affects *everybody* It just depends on how one deals with it.

My margin is too fine these days to increase prices when people are getting strapped for cash, and inventory is more scarce (people around here just sell their own stuff online now). I'll probably just use my account to clear out the house and sell incidentals as I find them, and have this as a semi-passive source of pocket change for pub meals, race entry fees, etc.

I've seen this coming, anyway.

Having said that, I think that people who sell pre-owned, new old stock, have deep inventory etc., are in a better position than most.

[richard1rst]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

I posted this to another thread, but it was suggested that I start a new thread instead (presumably with the hope that posters will stay focused on the topic, and not derail it by talking politics). So, here goes:

Setting aside the tariff issue itself, I've got a question for those who source within the USA :

IF inflation increases dramatically as predicted by many , do you have any particular plans or strategy to deal with it AS A SELLER?

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Well, I made this point once before. If you envision inflation on the horizon then buy WAY MORE inventory than you need and constantly mark it to market.

In economic terms there are 2 principles at play:

1st - using inventory as a hedge against inflation.

The idea is that inflation erodes the value of the dollar, but it also increases the value of non cash assets. So when the inventory eventually sells you recover the increases value of the item offsetting the loss of the value of the dollar.

I still have inventory I deliberately overbought 4 years ago.  Although in truth I don't believe we are in any way going to be saddles with similar inflation to what we had 4 years ago so it really isn't that much of a scare (to me at least). The pendulum always corrects itself and good times WILL return. And that is my payoff.

2nd principle - the time value of money

Assuming you are not strapped for cash and living paycheck to paycheck, which is better: selling a bunch of things today for $1000 (when you really don't need the money right away) - OR selling those same things for $2000 a year from today?

Now I realize there are a lot of people who are living paycheck to paycheck and these options are not available. But for those with extra cash step up and take a swing at it. You never win the bet you never take.

[meme6253]

I've seen this coming, Talked about it many times, I do not plan on changing anything unless I find that I need to, This is supplemental income for me & I hope it keeps coming in, My main concern is will ebay give us a break if we fall below standard due to less sales?, It has been tough for some time now for many of us, If the Inflation keeps growing & we go into a recession or worse, That could become quite a problem.

[mam98031]

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@meme6253 wrote:

I've seen this coming, Talked about it many times, I do not plan on changing anything unless I find that I need to, This is supplemental income for me & I hope it keeps coming in, My main concern is will ebay give us a break if we fall below standard due to less sales?, It has been tough for some time now for many of us, If the Inflation keeps growing & we go into a recession or worse, That could become quite a problem.

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@meme6253 

What rule says they do that?  You do NOT fall below standard because your sales are low UNLESS you also have a bunch of defects or are in trouble in the Service metrics.  But there is NO rule that drops you to Below Standard just because your sales decreased.

[chapeau-noir]

This would be option #1 for me if I could find enough inventory. I've been working on it despite it being digging in hard ground. The other source of inventory is our house clean-out - costs already encurred I can afford to offer good deals. I know this isn't really a business 'plan', selling our old stuff, but it's something to consider in general - what's in those closets and storerooms?

[chapeau-noir]

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@meme6253 wrote:

I've seen this coming, Talked about it many times, I do not plan on changing anything unless I find that I need to, This is supplemental income for me & I hope it keeps coming in, My main concern is will ebay give us a break if we fall below standard due to less sales?, It has been tough for some time now for many of us, If the Inflation keeps growing & we go into a recession or worse, That could become quite a problem.

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@meme6253  You don't fall below standard because of less sales, you fall below standard due to bad metrics. You can lose TRS status due to low sales, but you'd still be above standard. I've lost TRS status a number of times due to not enough sales and it hasn't made any difference to my sales numbers. I don't think I have TRS status now due to having quit selling for four-five months and not having a lot to offer coming back. 

So don't worry about that one.

[reallynicestamps]

Most of my inventory is the stock from our now-closed B&M store, purchased years, even decades ago.

And it was purchased in Canadian dollars, but I sell in US dollars.

My concern will be tariffs, and more importantly the duty-free allowance, currently at $800 USD, which allows my customers to import without duty or tariff.

If that is dropped, my US customers will be paying more (10-25%).

I've noticed that I have been selling a lot more to Canada and Europe this past March than usual.

[onefootflipper1]

Raising prices won't work for most of us. One thing I know from over 25 years of ebay selling is that used item prices lag a few years behind the real inflation.

If used David Bowie t-shirts average $10 and then we have a few years of terrible inflation it will be at least two years before used David Bowie t-shirts start going up in price (given no other reasons aside from inflation).

3 reasons.

#1. People keep mental price points for used goods even stickier than they do for new ones.

#2. More people have hard times during heavy inflation (as salaries lag years behind too) and are more likely to dump their used stuff for needed cash, thus increasing supply.

3. Most ebay sellers never adjust an item price once listed.  This means that for your Doctor Seuss book to gain value to match inflation ebay must first sell through all the copies being sold at a 5 cent profit by media specialists and then burn through every single copy of the book that is listed (or gets listed) below 120 percent of the current low price before the price can rise to match the inflation. And in the case of media it simply won't, we have inflation every year, every year the average media item sold price slips a few percent.

Collectibles favored by the working class are particularly hard hit during heavy inflation as they are very likely to see a huge downturn in price before they can ever start to turn around.

Example, despite supposedly being "Hot" the gold standard 1999 era Pokemon prices are still sitting below the prices they were when covid started 5 years ago. Not only did the entire covid bump evaporate, they are actually cheaper today than they were in late 2019.  Down 10-15 percent over the time period despite a total inflation of 18 percent over that same time period.

The gold standard 1994 Revised Dual Land Magic cards fared much better over that same time period, however later cards collapsed so hard that you could easily say Magic card prices are actually down 50 percent as a whole since before covid.

[fbusoni]

If inflation shows signs of increasing, I will start purchasing more inventory... but not at inflated prices.

[meme6253]

Good to know, I thought it did.