@chariot_badges wrote:
@myfrugalboutique wrote:
@chariot_badges PLEASE unless you are a trained economist with your fingers on the pulse of the world at a moments notice, knock this doom and gloom off. This topic is not permitted on these forums. It is a better place when personal opinions stay off this page.
I have two Bachelors degrees from a California State University. Business Admin and Managerial Economics.
I am a Licensed Appraiser for Tax Purposes by the State of California.
I have testified before Assessment Appeals Boards and Superior Court and am recognized as an expert in personal property valuation.
I have worked for County Assessors and the California State Board of Equalization, and most recently as a consultant to some pretty large corporations. Very large in fact, names you'd recognize.
I think I have a pretty good grounding in Macro and Micro Economics. Both formal education, and personal education.
ALL appraisal is an opinion. Line up three economists and they'll point in six directions, and be able to support each of their position(s).
In addition to all that, I am old. I been an adult on this planet for well over a half century. I have seen things. I have seen all this before.
I studied European history in Europe in the mid 60's - back when there were still lot of people around that lived in Europe during WW2.
Wanna hear something scary? Doom and gloom?
We are in the SAME spot right now, as Germany was in 1930. Know what happened in Germany during those years, and for twenty years after? Same spot.
I KNOW this forum is for Ebay and Ebay business. But how can ANY business person ignore the environment they are doing business in? Should they? Do you think that Ebay upper management don't have conversations about economics? and politics?
It's ok for THEM to consider it, but they don't want US talking about it?
It's is political. And, it is entirely appropriate in this forum.
The mods may take this post out (probably will) because it is uncomfortable to the fragile amongst us.
It is an important factor that we will ignore at our own peril.
I hope I am wrong, I really do ...
I truly hope that someone comes back here in a year and rubs my nose in how wrong I was.
I'll gladly eat crow.
.
Economics have definitely underwent major changes since likely you're degrees, thats not a knock, just a reality. Global economics were spaghetti before the Internet and digital tech now it's like the entire pasta factory.
eBay will wax and wane and 14% is well within the range of that or small biz retail for that matter.
As to the politics absolutely, you bet they play a big part in consumer spending and pretty much always have since The Roman Empire at the very least. Yes we are in dangerous waters, perhaps the most dangerous in human history in fact. One might say we are closer to global conflict than any point since WW II and closer to civil conflict since our Civil War. The stacks up real nasty like and I agree completely towards the echoes of time to the 1930's domestically in as far as the civil aspect. Pre-War Germany had other issues as well, economics, bindings by the Treaty of Versailles etc.
But not going to get most American's to forward think which appears to be traditional pre-war at least here. The history is judge, jury and executioner and then after the fact finding the true causations, blame and perpetrators usually soon to be forgotten as the citizens begin to the rinse session in order to eventually repeat.
So many odd things in America almost bi-polar to its history also taking place. Most of the westernized world is begging for immigration as America's model has always been, mass immigration results in mass innovation, yes strife, but a booming nation and boom times. Now here we sit where those W. European, Canada etc. have tended to be about not wanting immigration. Thats crazy!
We've 10 million open jobs, a military in mass need of new recruits that are not lifestyle soft, births rates are down and I just read other day if those 10 Million jobs were filled cut 2.5 Trillion off national debt in four years due to economic boom and generate as much as 2 trillion in new wealth over 15-20 years. Nope. Can't do that.
Your right, the "scape goats" are being setup yet oddly the change in immigration under LBJ which wanted W. Europeans immigrate here resulted in Latino's immigrating here as the W. Europeans were to jazzed by the racial issues in the day. Those Latino's very much so filled our military and then some. But getting rid of the "Scape Goats" will not solve the fundamental problem here. That is to say, all those illegal immigrants be gone do not solve the national problem(s) so new scapegoats be needed and that is going to be "Social Services" oriented.
Failing democracies tend go way of Fascisms and with that to thrive need a common internal enemy yet what the supporters of such things NEVER seem realize is they become the victims. This is due to the fact supporters have expectations and those pose the greatest to depose power that they helped install. Thus they are first to be minimized as the "Internal Enemy" concepts fail. Hitler youth turning in their parents, relatives, friends who speak even privately about potential wrongs. In order to have all sheep the wolves that put the big wolves in power need to go.
I help moderate a very large political forum, I was recently asked step back into that fray. I would say at this point in time, both sides the fence, six in ten American's are so wrapped up in their little life's bubble that they are completely daft. I mean like 100% daft to the real world or even real nation around them.
