Just in case anybody's still out there - the jobs report

[dancing_space_monkeys]

This used to be my favorite post of each month on T.S. The monthly jobs report.

I still have fond memories of late 2003 through 2004 when job growth came back, and many posters kept screaming that it was all fake, and that we were still losing jobs. Yet, despite their self-proclaimed brilliance, none of them could ever tell us what the "real" numbers were, they could never tell me where their information came from, nor could they tell us why only they knew this stuff, while every major news organization in the country was fooled...

[dancing_space_monkeys]

We added 222,000 jobs in June, yet the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3  to 4.4. The reason for that was that over 300,000 people came back into the labor force, and thus now count as unemployed.

The job force participation rate, though, is still at a decades-low point.

[mountainallie]

With the high price of day care, I'm not surprised the participation rate is down. I don't know how young mothers can afford to work like they did in my day.

[dancing_space_monkeys]

There used to be a young couple living next door to my mother. Mom, Dad, two kids. In a role reversal of stereotypical jobs, mom was an aerospace engineer and dad was a school teacher.

They had a nanny for this two kids, but then the realized that were paying the nanny more than dad's salary! Dad quit and became a stay at home parent, and their disposable income went up about $8K per year.

[katsungk]

THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER: 102 MILLION WORKING AGE AMERICANS DO NOT HAVE A JOB
Published: June 5, 2017

John Williams of shadowstats.com tracks what our economic numbers would look like if honest numbers were being used, and according to his calculations the unemployment rate is currently 22 percent.

31% = 312 million - 102 Million Working Age Americans Do Not Have A Job

Published: June 5, 2017

http://www.blacklistednews.com/The_Real_Unemployment_Number%3A_102_Million_Working_Age_Americans_Do_...

[dancing_space_monkeys]

102 MILLION WORKING AGE AMERICANS DO NOT HAVE A JOB

You're counting the ENTIRE Civilian Non Institutional Population. Most of those don't want or need a job. And no, Trump/Obama/Bush/Clinton didn't start this. It's been counted this way since 1960, as far as I know, maybe even 1948.

Limbaugh made this same mistake when Obama was President. I notice that he stopped doing it the minute Trump got in.

[mountainallie]

You should stop by the Soapbox dsm. Oldbear was right. It's not so bad and you'd be surprised how many names from Town Square post over there. Including some that I should probably stay away from. They are as far from center America as it's possible to get.

[dancing_space_monkeys]

I sometimes go to the exile board, there's some activity. I'll try the soapbox

[dancing_space_monkeys]

In July - 209,000 added and the participation rate went up as well. Hopefully this is a good sign

[tdreamer56]

[dancing_space_monkeys]

Decent if lackluster jobs activity in August.

[tdziemianowicz]

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@dancing_space_monkeys wrote:

Decent if lackluster jobs activity in August.

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Optimistic take.   

Downward revisions for June and July numbers accompanied that report.

Sure.  No signs we are headed for bad times, but the Gonzo Trumpster divers are just that.  Folks looking for a reason for a positive comparison to the last few years of the prior administration that just ain't there.

But they're still believers.

[dancing_space_monkeys]

Optimistic take.   

Not realy. I'll take 156,000 jobs per month. It's not blockbuster, but it more than accounts for population growth even if the job force participation rate goes up a bit.

[dancing_space_monkeys]

Septmeber data was bad. 33,000 jobs lost. But there is some good news.

First, most of this was due to the double punch of Harvey and Irma. We should rebound from this very quickly.

There was HUGE growth in the job force participation rate. 575,000 either joined or re-entered.

Despite both of those, the unemployment rate dropped due an even HUGER upward spike in non-establishment jobs. These are jobs, but aren't counted in the job loss/growth report, but ARE counted for purposes of the unemployment rate.

Bottom line: The Hurricanes hit us, but we'll bounce back soon

[dancing_space_monkeys]

261,000 jobs added in October. Unemployment drops, but mainly due to a large number of people exiting the labor force, which in turn was likely tied to a huge drop in "non-establishment" jobs.