Gut Feelings = Nonsense

[powell-memorabilia]

I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.”  Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.”  Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams.  No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.

From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.  

[powell-memorabilia]

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@greatmidwestcoin wrote:

Yes, I do. Under my main selling ID, I sell items in the hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars. I've been here 24 years and I do have a good business sense of a possible dead-beat buyer. Especially after the sale, I Google the address and name of the buyer. If either doesn't pass the smell test, I cancel the sale. I will take the rating hit versus losing big bucks. Until you sell several million dollars' worth without a loss, you will never understand. If you have to cite a study for anything, you have already lost. And you seriously sell pages cut out of magazines for $12.50? Good luck!

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What you are talking about is actual data to analyze-  not gut feelings.  Googling an address and finding an empty lot is far different than someone spooked because a buyer ordered two pairs of underwear and a candle.

i am a bit confused as to how you thinking that ephemera is silly backs up that select folks have real spidey senses. If that was just a low key attempt at bullying, it didn’t really land with me.  

[luckythewinner]

Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

No, they do not think they were bit by a radioactive spider. They may be simply using a pop culture phrase to refer to "intuition" about fraudulent intent about buyers on eBay , which is often rooted in prior fraud that shared similar characteristics. 

no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams

No argument there. But there are many common signs of a scam, and past experience can inform future behavior. 

For example: If a seller is contacted by a buyer who first tries to take a transaction off eBay and then later defrauds them, they might have a gut feeling that it also will happen the next time a buyer tries to take a transaction off eBay. 

Or if a past buyer pestered them with messages about delivery time and then filed an "Item Not Received" dispute way too early, they might have a gut feeling the next time a buyer seems overly concerned about delivery time. 

[conservitvs]

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@powell-memorabilia wrote:

If that was just a low key attempt at bullying, it didn’t really land with me.  

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Deleted.

[sextons-sweet-deals]

It looks like you're only selling $12 items. How do you ship those items safe and secure without being folded / bent with free shipping and still make a profit? Even if you rolled up in a tube, that is still going to cost with the dims and weight shipping calculations. 

A seller has the right to review their buyers just as any potential buyer has the right to review the seller. 

What we have today is the scammer who creates multiple I.D.'s, guest accounts, using stolen gift card numbers, using vacant houses for shipping address and so on. 

I had a few with the vacant looking house and shipped with signature required. The item ends up coming back in about a month as undeliverable.

The scam game keeps changing and sellers need to keep their guard up. 

I sell more expensive stuff than $12, so I keep my guard up and do my research before shipping.

[gamersbaystore]

Looking at a buyers feedback can tell you a lot! If they're scamming and harassing sellers galore, count me out, their transaction is getting cancelled and they're getting blocked. Why would anyone willingly want to do business with someone who is obviously defrauding others? You don't need spidey senses to use logic.

[chapeau-noir]

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@powell-memorabilia wrote:

I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.”  Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.”  Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams.  No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.

From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.  

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HMS as far as I know deals chiefly with students and thus their study methodology will reflect this. "62%" is a curiously precise number.

I don't cancel sales here, but in life every time I've ignored my gut feeling I've regretted it. And all 'gut feelings' are really is a conclusion based upon myriad input and experience over a period of time and a valuable quality called 'instinct' - instinct has kept people alive in some of the worst situations. Yes, it seems silly over low-dollar items (though guess what, my most troublesome buyers have been over low-dollar items) and some people do draw faulty conclusions. But just dismissing it in general is to fail to understand, really, how the human mind works. 

[toomuchstuffagain35]

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@chapeau-noir wrote:

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@powell-memorabilia wrote:

I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.”  Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.”  Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams.  No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.

From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.  

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HMS as far as I know deals chiefly with students and thus their study methodology will reflect this. "62%" is a curiously precise number.

I don't cancel sales here, but in life every time I've ignored my gut feeling I've regretted it. And all 'gut feelings' are really is a conclusion based upon myriad input and experience over a period of time and a valuable quality called 'instinct' - instinct has kept people alive in some of the worst situations. Yes, it seems silly over low-dollar items (though guess what, my most troublesome buyers have been over low-dollar items) and some people do draw faulty conclusions. But just dismissing it in general is to fail to understand, really, how the human mind works. 

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^^This

[selsa84]

That's why when I receive an offer I check their feedback left for others. If I see tons of reds I block them. It's common sense not Spidey sense. 

[powell-memorabilia]

Exactly - something concrete, absolutely, make an informed decision.  Canceling because the buyer that orders two pairs of underwear and a candle must be a scammer, well that is just silly.

[mtgraves7984]

God gave me a gut feeling for a reason. Granted that I don't think it was for selling on eBay... but I use it when I need to.

[the_fancy_fox]

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@powell-memorabilia wrote:

I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.”  Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.”  Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams.  No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.

From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.  

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Experience. Yes I can spot a trouble transaction out the gate.  Gut feeling? Just another word to me for experience. I call it a gut feeling when the first warning signs are flying.  

And yes, people do scam for $10 cookbooks. Its a game to them as they figure no one is going to call them out for a cheap book.  My cheapest scammer got me for $6.00. Bought a shirt, claimed it was damaged, sent it back and it was the wrong shirt, wrong color,  torn and seriously worn. So yeah, it happens.

Can you post a link to that article? I cant find anything from Harvard about it. Did find one from Harvard business news about millionaire investors and how their gut feelings on marketing and investing were spot on.

[a_c_green]

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@the_fancy_fox wrote:
Can you post a link to that article? I cant find anything from Harvard about it. Did find one from Harvard business news about millionaire investors and how their gut feelings on marketing and investing were spot on.

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So the "H" in "HMS" stands for Harvard? I asked yesterday what HMS stood for and where one might find a link to the quoted statistic. I really wish people would spell out their acronyms the first time they mention the term in print.

[sin-n-dex]

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@powell-memorabilia wrote:

I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.”  Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.”  Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker?  He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.

Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams.  No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.

From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.  

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Gut feelings usually stem from experiences. There's a person at work who calls in sick once or twice a week, and I can predict which days she's going to call in. Usually that has to do with the schedule, I can tell when she's going to suddenly get a migraine and not be able to work. I had a close friend that was predictable in that sense that I knew when I should make other plans for the day because she'd have a migraine and be unavailable. There's something to be said about predictable behaviour.

Not all things are predictable and eBay sales can be, or maybe not. I wouldn't cancel a sale because of a hunch since a hunch is not a good enough reason to cancel a legitimate sale. There's only a couple people I cancel on when they keep coming back to buy from me again (because they've scammed me before and I know who they are, so I can predict they will scam me again).

I have a contact that I run situations by, this person has been in customer service and sales for over 40 years and can tell me about certain behaviours, whether they indicate malice or are just the indication of a certain type of customer. I had one customer winning almost everything yesterday, and I ran the facts by this person last night and he told me "placing last minute bids and spending three hours on your auctions indicates interest, someone who is interfering would just bid to the moon over a short time and never be outbid". I was a little concerned when I saw the same person winning almost everything for prices much higher than I expected, but as it turns out, buyer is overseas, and the items are very valuable to him. We ran situations of things in the past to compare the behaviours and my contact told me not to worry about yesterday's auctions with this one bidder.

so basically if I went by hunches I might have cancelled... but experience helps a lot. I've often said in the forum to newer members that what they're talking about is not an indication of being scammed, but indicates something else (like an interested customer that likes their item).

C.

[sin-n-dex]

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@dirk12955 wrote:

While I agree 100% that some sellers mistakenly see a scam around every corner and under every rock,

After 24 years selling on ebay as a seller,   I can recognize a problem transaction 

  immediately and I'm almost never wrong.

I've been buying from and selling to other human beings since 1968 and can see a problem coming

from a mile away.      

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I'm not that good (but have been here 26 years, as a customer mostly). That's kind of why I run my issues by this other person that will analyze the situation based on information I provide and answers to questions. I find he's rarely ever wrong.

C.

[lakefor94]

Real nice to have a goto vetter.