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Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

Now that eBay has released their Q1 report, sellers may wonder what's ahead for Q2 or Q3? From what I'm reading and watching, even from Lannone himself, it looks a little concerning. If you're struggling now as a seasoned seller, or if you're new to the platform, the next few months (or maybe longer) will most likely be challenging to say the least.  My advice is to prepare proactively instead of facing disappointment reactively. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVYWEyoeti4

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebay-shares-fall-weak-revenue-202514910.html

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ebay-etsys-q1-earnings-signaling-160255150.html

 

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

Just wanted to add...

While ebay is not my full time job, my ebay income is VERY important to me.

My ebay income allows me to afford  luxuries like gas and groceries.    😉

Without it I would not be able to survive.

Papa Was A Rolling Stone - The Temptations
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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

It seems quite a number of sellers come on here and begin with "I've sold here for 920 years" or whatever, then in essence complains that things have changed since they've started and that the only way eBay will survive is to go back to the primitive search engine, taking wads of cash in the mail and negging buyers. How can one have so much experience in online sales and not know that in 25 years ecommerce has completely transformed. No one has to like these changes, but from my perspective, selling here 23 years ago was like the horse-and-buggy days (28 baud modem - wheee!). Sure, it was fun then - it was new! That wore off years ago, though. I'd like to get the fun back, too - and while I'm at it, I want my youth, a pair of functional hips and world peace.


“The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don’t have any.”
— Alice Walker

#freedomtoread
#readbannedbooks
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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

I could be wrong but I'd suspect that true hobby and clutter-ridding sellers make up a very small portion of the eBay seller base.  You'd have to be pretty well-off to not literally NEED more money nowadays.  

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

A recent "good-ole-days" poster even cited paper checks and money orders as a sadly bygone thing.  Doesn't sound very fun to me!     

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead


@campanaelia wrote:



Huh, not seeing this "across all businesses". In the last 2 days since ebay reported earnings, the DOW is up about 800, and the NASDAQ is up about 550. Amazon, Apple, MercadoLibre, Microsoft, and Wayfair, to name a few all had upbeat earnings.

 

The past two days could easily be a rebound from the previous week's losses which were not tied to fundamentals in any way. The stock market is no longer driven by how a company performs and has not been for quite a while. You can blame index funds and derivatives if you cannot think of anything else to blame, but there are many other reasons why the stock market is no longer a market but akin to a casino

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead


@gurlcat wrote:

I could be wrong but I'd suspect that true hobby and clutter-ridding sellers make up a very small portion of the eBay seller base.  You'd have to be pretty well-off to not literally NEED more money nowadays.  


I don't believe that is true.  The number may have changed, but the last time I saw it, small and casual sellers make up about 80% of the seller base on Ebay.  We are the largest section of sellers on the site.


mam98031  •  Volunteer Community Member  •  Buyer/Seller since 1999
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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead


@campanaelia wrote:

I feel they shrank the buyer pool with the auto-pay policy. Many buyers warned about this for the past year but it seems ebay is doubling down on it for offers. The most recent new twist includes offers from sellers which makes it impossible to get a combined shipping invoice before paying because their is no way to commit to buy, "you snooze you lose".

When you add a policy that decreases payment options, takes away combined shipping and forces buyers to authorize ebay to make charges without the buyer reviewing the invoice first, this is the end result.

I haven't made an offer for a year now and I'm buying at least half of what I used to because of auto-pay. If I can't review the final invoice and the payment source it's being deducted from and submit the payment myself, I hit the back button. There have been many errors made and once they have your money there's no fixing it. Thankfully they removed the option from auctions but for me it was too late, I already began sourcing my computers elsewhere before ebay pulled the rug out first.

AMOF the only times I've ever allowed an automatic payment was for my mortgage. Not even for my utilities did I ever allow it, and ebay is nothing special to make me change my ways.

I highly doubt the auto-pay policy has ever increased buyers that were never serious in the first place to suddenly pay immediately, but what did happen is it decreased paying buyers from buying as much as they use to before auto-pay began, I am one of them.

I've also never had an UPI in 20 years using ebay so it has nothing to do with not planning to pay.


I have to agree with the Auto Pay policy - while great for seller's that want it, a bloody disaster for those that don't and didn't even know they had it or the choice to remove.

 

In full disclosure eBay needs to send every seller information on this, so they can turn it off if they need to. Better still (but it is eBay after all) would have been for the default to be OFF with sellers choosing to turn on when this was implemented.

********************************************************************
I have been imported from Australia and this is my posting ID
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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

ebay's overall sales (GMV) have been basically flat for quite a long time now. Revenue growth is largely attributable (and ebay acknowledges this) to a constantly increasing take rate (that is, the fees collected from sellers). The good news in this quarterly report is that, while ebay is not forecasting a great Q2, ebay is  claiming they expect to finally see actual GMV growth in Q3 and 4. 

 

Whether that will happen or not is hard to say, but it is an indication that ebay recognizes that it can't continue to depend on increasing the take rate forever, and that it needs to finally more the needle on sales. 

 

Why ebay feels confident about this, I can't say. They talked a lot about generative AI , suggesting it would eventually increase sales velocity for a variety of reasons. They also said that "used and reconditioned" now make up 40% of ebay's GMV, which suggests there has been a decline in the overall proportion of new items being sold...since ebay has been focusing on being a non new, in season site, this constitutes progress away from the old "we compete with Amazon" strategy of the previous CEO. 

 

Recently, ebay made the ebay live video sales available on PCs (formerly just available on Mobile) and they have gradually---very gradually---increased the number and category diversity of such auctions. Nothing was stated about giving this a wider release, but it is at least possible that ebay will finally do something to counter the competitive threat of WhatNot, FB and YT and IG live auctions, etc.

 

I could add more, but this post is already too long for some here LOL

 

And, of course, who knows?  Assuming a relatively stable economy and world situation (no nuclear war for example), I expect it will be a bumpy ride, but, as always, some sellers will manage well, and others  won't. That is as true on this platform as other platforms and the B&M world as well.

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

It does not help when we also have to deal with the nonsense of sales turning into INR cases & refunding everything back; leaving sellers in the minus due to paying for shipping.  My last sale - I just shipped.  The sale before that - a INR case opened today.  The sale before that - refunded due to an INR.  They are not being delivered or buyers just want things for free??!!   It just continues to be annoying.

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

finally accessed the earnings call transcript. These are some quotes I found interesting. I suggest reading the entire thing for more context :

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ebay-inc-nasdaq-ebay-q1-194548042.html

 

 

 CEO: "And I am pleased that we remain on track for GMV growth to turn positive by Q3 or Q4 of this year." (Me: So, maybe not until Q4. They've given themselves some wiggle room.)

 

Overall, focus category GMV grew nearly 5% last quarter, outpacing the remainder of our marketplace by roughly 6 points.

 

(Me: Of course, their marketing spend is devoted to focus categories, not the remainder of the marketplace, so it would be a huge surprise if focus category GMV did NOT outpace the remainder.)

 

While eBay Live remains in beta, we are extremely excited about continuing to scale this experience throughout the year. 

 

(Me: Which could mean just about anything)

 

Our Ads business continues to deliver healthy growth at scale while improving velocity and price realization for our sellers at compelling return on ad spend levels. During Q1, first-party advertising grew 28%, while total ad revenue represented 2.1% of GMV. During the quarter, over 3 million sellers adopted a single ad product and we ended the quarter with over $950 million live promoted listings. Our standard cost per acquisition units remain the largest contributor to year-over-year ad revenue growth in Q1, followed by our cost per click advanced product.

 

We reached a major milestone in Q1 as pre-owned and refurbished goods reached 40% of total GMV on our marketplace after consistently outpacing the sales of brand new goods since the pandemic.

 

 We expanded our go-to-market efforts for offsite ads toward the end of last year and this product emerged as a material contributor to first-party ad revenue growth in Q1. We have ambitious roadmap to further optimize these ad units and increase seller adoption throughout 2024.

 

 Last quarter, we highlighted the impact of our Germany C2C initiative on overall growth in the region. I am pleased that Germany C2C volume growth remained positive even as we began to lap the rollout of these changes in March of last year. In the U.K., we did see some softness in C2C volumes during the quarter, while the new U.K. digital sales reporting requirements came into effect. We are currently working to educate sellers that many of them actually do not incur taxes for selling pre-owned items. 

 

 In addition, benefits from our halo attribution change in Q2 of last year led to extraordinary growth in first-party advertising overall, which will create more challenging year-over-year comparisons for the remainder of this year. However, we do expect a recovery in advertising growth during the second half of 2024, driven by continued adoption and optimization of our first-party ad products.

 

Yes, I’d really say, it’s threefold, Colin. I’d say, first, it’s the focus category work that we’re doing. You see us not only kind of expanding what we’re doing there, but investing in categories that we’ve already launched before, like what we announced in collectibles with the Collectors and Goldin this quarter, what we’re seeing in terms of the growth of luxury, of P&A, refurbished at 5%. So that’s probably the first thing I’d say. The second is just the geo work that we’re doing in specific geographies. If you look at the work that we did in Germany on C2C, we continue to see healthy returns from that. We’re more than a year from launching that. We launched that in Q1 of last year and we’re continuing to see positive C2C momentum in Germany and healthy metrics and encouraging numbers from our CSAT standpoint.

So that’s the second. And the third, I would say, is the efforts that we have against our horizontal innovations. So, we’ve talked about things like magical listing of simplifying the selling flow. We continue to invest in search, in CRM, and a number of horizontal initiatives. I’d call out two that we talked about this quarter, which are Explore and Shop the Look, new AI capabilities that we’re launching first in fashion to really create a new browsing experience. So all three of those together is what gives us the confidence in moving forward and how we feel good about what we put out there.

 

 I would say, the backdrop remains weaker in Europe than it does in the U.S., where U.S. is in better shape. If you look at e-commerce growth rates in U.K. and Germany this quarter, they’re negative and that’s overall, and obviously, we play more in discretionary than consumables. So I think this is where our model is really winning, right? Our model is working because we have global demand. We’ve really focused in on non-new in season over the last couple of years and we can provide value in a marketplace like this.

We can be a great avenue for selling in terms of consumer demand. And I think it’s why we reached the milestone this year or this quarter of now 40% of our inventory is pre-loved or refurbished is because we’re seeing strength from the value proposition that we’ve built and it’s resonating with the consumer.

 

 And what we’re doing in the U.K., U.K. is a unique market for us.

We have very strong awareness and we’re a leading player in recommence, but we view the fashion category as really a gateway to recommence. Pre-owned apparel shoppers are really valuable to our business, and what we see is that 30% of our C2C sellers actually sell in pre-owned apparel.

 

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

Had a buyer buy and cancel immediately reason "no cod."..hmmm not since 90 what?

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

@pls-consignments " My advice is to prepare proactively instead of facing disappointment reactively."

 

This is good advice anytime. 

 

Personally, unless the country/world goes really crazy---nuclear war, for example---I don't expect the next quarter for ebay overall to be any more bumpy than most. For individual sellers, of course, it will vary: smooth for some, bumpy for others, and even worse for some others. 

 

I expect many of us will muddle through just fine. And, if not here, then on other venues. 

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

They see the growth of revenue from the ad fees and I'm betting they'll either bump up the minimum ad fee percentage or increase fvf's, or maybe both.  

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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead


@selsa84 wrote:

They see the growth of revenue from the ad fees and I'm betting they'll either bump up the minimum ad fee percentage or increase fvf's, or maybe both.  


Not necessarily.  There has been growth in Promoted listing revenue each quarter since they started really pushing it a year or more ago.  In that time they changed the minimum only once.


mam98031  •  Volunteer Community Member  •  Buyer/Seller since 1999
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Re: Looks Like A Bumpy Road Ahead

Maybe the sellers are not "stubborn and ignorant," but simply running their businesses as they see fit?

People have legit reasons for doing or not doing all the things on your list.

But if you don't like hearing people whine, then just scroll past the post.

Many of these sellers complaining are old timers and should know how eBay works by now.

But I've noticed people here like to engage for the social aspect -- this forum is treated like social media, by some.

I'm just here to learn from the experiences of people who've been doing this a lot longer than I.

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