I'm hoping for some input before I torture myself all day on the phone with eBay.
The background: I made a sale to Canada. I do this all the time. I don't use GSP. This buyer was unhappy with the estimated shipping cost through USPS. I gave him the UPS cost, which was cheaper, as an option, which he chose. I clearly told him at least three different times, through the messaging system with a direct quote specifying UPS, a image of the screenshot from UPS so he would know I was not padding the cost, and through invoicing which specified UPS. He likely got the invoice twice, as I had to open a NPI. He waited until 12 hours before that was available to close out to pay (oh how I wish he'd just not paid at this point). He's now been hit with the duty and import charges from UPS, which has made him, to say the least, unhappy. He has refused delivery on the package. It now sits with UPS waiting for me to decide how I want to proceed. It is basically the same shipping charge back. None of these charges are small at all.
What is the likelihood that eBay is going to back me up if I refund him less *all* the shipping charges both outgoing and return charges? He's going to have a huge fit, but he's given up his buyer protection by refusing delivery at this point. Online, viewable tracking shows him refusing delivery. I don't want to refund him and have him run right down to UPS and pay the bail, but if eBay is not going to back me up on the much reduced refund it is not worth it to me to pay to get the package back.
