11-02-2022 08:57 AM
Stock Analyst Conference Call at 5PM ET:
Sign up here if you want to listen live.
https://investors.ebayinc.com/events/event-details/2022/eBay-Q3-2022-Earnings-Call/default.aspx
I do not expect to catch this live, however, I'm sure it will be covered---from a seller's perspective---by the valueaddedresource blog: https://www.valueaddedresource.net/
11-02-2022 01:27 PM
Well, the spin is: Q3 was "better than expected"...
here ya go:
11-02-2022 01:41 PM
The Q4 forecast is less than expected.
Active buyers declined. Again.
GMV declined. Again.
Revenue declined. Again.
Revenue from Promoted Listings increased. Again.
Can't say a quick glance suggests anything really unexpected...
11-02-2022 01:45 PM
I should add---my comments were made after a very quick review....could be wrong on a couple things...I'm sure someone will correct me if I am....
11-02-2022 01:46 PM
@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:The Q4 forecast is less than expected.
Active buyers declined. Again.
GMV declined. Again.
Revenue declined. Again.
Revenue from Promoted Listings increased. Again.
Can't say a quick glance suggests anything really unexpected...
@my-cottage-books-and-antiques Too bad I am not seeing the same kind of decline where I try to acquire inventory ... the competition is stiff, it's like the down turned economy and inflation don't exist ...
11-02-2022 02:22 PM - edited 11-02-2022 02:25 PM
Really frustrating to see their claims about Motors:
"The company continued to increase trust in the Motors Parts & Accessories category, building on several quarters of improvements to the P&A fitment experience like modernizing its taxonomy and integrating fitment-based technologies into search, merchandising and advertising recommendations. eBay is now able to make fitment more pervasive throughout the end-to-end experience, including adding highly visible trust signals throughout the buyer journey in the U.S. and Canada, and reducing the number of steps required to find parts. The company also expanded adoption of My Garage, leading to more personalized shopping on every visit."
Umm, the fitment and taxonomy haven't really changed, lol. It's same as always! There's no "reduced number of steps". It's still the same old compatibility charts. Meanwhile, eBay had already owned WHI/Nexpart for years, which is one of the industry leading tools for vehicle fitment. And they still can't even get the compatibility chart working correctly.
They rename the vehicle history you have searched to "My Garage", give it a UI downgrade where you have to scroll to the side rather than choose from a list, and pretend it's a new feature. Meanwhile it always existed, just without having to scroll.
The bugs reported years ago (that I had personally given to several members of leadership) STILL have not been fixed.
So it really strikes a nerve that they keep claiming they've done so much with fitment/etc. Literally all they did was start paying for marketing, but the actual functionality hasn't changed, despite their marketing claims.
With that said, I'm not exactly wishing they do major changes, either. As eBay's "upgrades" are often downgrades in other areas, "My Garage" as a perfect example. And I'm honestly scared that whatever they do might harm business, as their major changes for the category traditionally have.
11-02-2022 03:02 PM
Nonsense! GAAP Non-GAAP! A corrupt company reporting corrupt false earnings. The lemmings will drive the stock on the 'Beat' in 'After Hours', but REAL investors with a brain, that know what they are looking at, will dump and run as fast as they can tomorrow during the open.
Ebay only has 'Earnings' because of the stock buy backs. It's a criminal activity, should be outlawed, but without buybacks, ebay stock would be in the 10's A garbage company, that is struggling, gasping for every last $ in stock appreciation... when literally, there is none.
Non-GAAP EPS this quarter (-.13) / Share! NON-GAAP ie. What TF we MAKE UP! $1.00 / Share!
Next Chapter will be the dividend cut, as they spent all the shareholder payout, i.e. dividends on the 'Stalking' suit, and share buybacks.
Pathetic!
11-02-2022 03:21 PM - edited 11-02-2022 03:21 PM
I read the eBay press release BEFORE reading any of the online analysis (about 5:30pm), I did have a quick peek at the after hours trading numbers at that time (up 4+%).
My reaction while reading the numbers was almost exactly "better than expected"!
Nothing to cheer about but I expected worse for the y/y numbers and also the Q4 forecast sounded ok given the forecasts from some of the other markeplaces.
An unrelated matter, I was also looking at Etsy's Q3 number released today, I don't follow their numbers as closely so I can't make much of a valid comment. This one bit did stand out for me;
• Consolidated revenue was $594.5 million, up 11.7% versus the third quarter of 2021, with a take rate (i.e., Consolidated revenue divided by Consolidated GMS) of 19.8%. This revenue performance includes the Etsy marketplace transaction fee increase which went into effect on April 11, 2022.
That is an amazingly high take rate, sellers need really healthy margins to survive with that kind of overhead. By comparison eBay reported a take rate of 12.8%.
11-02-2022 03:55 PM
I read through the report and I tend to agree with you that this looked way better than I thought it would. And judging from the after hours market reaction it looks like the shareholders thing the same. The stock is a LONG way from where it was a year ago, down almost 50% and while the DJIA has taken a hit in the last year it's only been about 11% across the board. The market is strange these days and even seasoned traders will tell you that some of the long standing rules and predictors no longer apply.
It will be interesting to see what the market does next Wednesday after the mid term elections.
11-02-2022 04:08 PM
Yep. When I buy inventory the people buying it are buying and buying and buying and at high prices. So where are all these buy happy people HERE.
11-02-2022 04:26 PM
@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:The Q4 forecast is less than expected.
Active buyers declined. Again.
GMV declined. Again.
Revenue declined. Again.
Revenue from Promoted Listings increased. Again.
Can't say a quick glance suggests anything really unexpected...
So this is why they turned the site off for two weeks. It was the end of the quarter and tanking everyones sales to do an update wasn’t going to change the report. Maybe they spread the damage across two quarters by doing it on the edge.
11-02-2022 04:33 PM
The numbers actually do not look that terrible when you consider how hard hit the lower income bracket folks are in this inflationary period. I see why the shift from lower end price buyers to the authenticate programs and expensive trading cards etc etc as the usual buyer base for ebay has been dwindling this year due to less disposable income. Targeting the high rollers was the strategy and upping fees of course and the promoted listings take. Any company is going to do WHAT they HAVE to do to survive.
11-02-2022 04:35 PM
@slippinjimmy wrote:I read the eBay press release BEFORE reading any of the online analysis (about 5:30pm), I did have a quick peek at the after hours trading numbers at that time (up 4+%).
My reaction while reading the numbers was almost exactly "better than expected"!
Nothing to cheer about but I expected worse for the y/y numbers and also the Q4 forecast sounded ok given the forecasts from some of the other markeplaces.
An unrelated matter, I was also looking at Etsy's Q3 number released today, I don't follow their numbers as closely so I can't make much of a valid comment. This one bit did stand out for me;
• Consolidated revenue was $594.5 million, up 11.7% versus the third quarter of 2021, with a take rate (i.e., Consolidated revenue divided by Consolidated GMS) of 19.8%. This revenue performance includes the Etsy marketplace transaction fee increase which went into effect on April 11, 2022.
That is an amazingly high take rate, sellers need really healthy margins to survive with that kind of overhead. By comparison eBay reported a take rate of 12.8%.
This is because ad fees count as a separate transaction than the sale itself.
11-02-2022 05:53 PM
@zamo-zuan I'm pretty sure both ebay and etsy calculate the take rate the same way: it's the average of the platform's TOTAL take per transaction.
11-03-2022 07:04 AM
@vintagecraze50 wrote:Yep. When I buy inventory the people buying it are buying and buying and buying and at high prices. So where are all these buy happy people HERE.
@vintagecraze50 That's the 64 Million dollar question ...