Auction Snipers Good? Bad? Comments...

[gomarek]

Hi All; This is a topic I have never seen on the threads anywhere, I would be really interested in members comments on sniper programs, the pros and cons. I am of mixed minds. I don't think the name 'sniper' properly applies and in fact these should be bidders assistants or robots. I had a fair degree of interaction with some of eBAY's senior management and I made a suggestion almost two years ago (and several times since). As a buyer/bidder I place a courtesy bid when I find an item I want, to let other bidders know I have skin in the game and to place the item on my bidding page. Likewise I look at the other bidders, their feedback for past purchases and I evaluate how serious they are and what it will take to win the item. Then as the auction nears a close, I place my best bid as close to end of the auctions as possible trying to trump any other bidders. Obviously if my highest bid was too low I get outbid and am toast with no option to enter another bid. Fair game! Essentially this is what a robot bidder does, automatically places a bid as close to the close as possible (and) like a human if the person using the sniper has bid too low they still will not win the auction. If I get outbid in the last ten second race by another bidder, then I loose fair and square and usually send the winner a note of congratulations. What I don't like, is a sniper with 'no skin in the game' somebody who has no bid and shows up in the last five seconds to trump my bid. What I suggested to eBAY was this: Limit the final 30 seconds of bidding to existing bidders. This is a simple program for them to design system wide and it would kill all the sniper programs dead in their tracks... or at least cause them to modify the program and have the user place that courtesy bid. I don't mind the software, I think its great to have a little program that will place your final bid for you so you don't have to stay glued to your machine or run home. Do snipers hurt final value prices? Are they the scum of the earth? Great little tools that increase sales? What percentage of auctions do you think are completed by snipers. If the consensus is that snipers are BAD, then I would suggest one of the things the group do is push eBAY "HARD" to apply this one simple change. I think it will drive final value fee's higher. ?? REALLY looking forward to sellers comments on this. Thanks Marek

[#2]

* 10 seconds is not a snipe. 3 seconds is respectable, and 1 second must be laughingravy21... ;) * Robots are capable, yes, but I don't consider that to be sniping. I'm aware that there's no real way to know. Most robots aren't capable of anything under 4 to 5 seconds. As a seller, I don't mind snipers too much. I prefer that everybody bid early and often, but I realize that the more refined buyers are going to snipe. I won't bid on an item, seriously, without sniping. At all, ever. If I bid early, it's only a token amount for something I don't really care if I win or not. My serious money goes for items I snipe. Would banning a snipe in the last 30 seconds turn me off? I don't know, I've never thought about it. A good snipe is the only enjoyment I get from ebay though, I actually like it. Some snipers have a certain "mentality", and I'm convinced that the only reason they're bidding is for the snipe, it's a contest. I think the final ending time is out there for the entire world to see, there's no secret. And "when" a bid hits shouldn't really matter. I don't deny that it might affect the final price, but I also think that turning away ANY bidder is destructive. I've logged into ebay before and bought things with 5 seconds left that I just happened to stumble upon. Let's say current price is $100 and the high bidders proxy is $1500. The guy with the $2000 check go's for it, but he's locked out at 30 seconds. SOLD for $100. Do we really want ebay getting into this? Leo

[#3]

I only bid using a snipe program. There is no question it keeps the prices down. I feel that I am just working the system utilizing the options that are in place. However, I would not be opposed to an eBay policy that only lets existing bidders bid during the last 30 seconds. If this were put in place then I would just bid a token amount while the auction is running and then snipe it at the end. JOEFRIDAY2

[#4]

A better policy would be automatic extension of auctions that receive a bid in the last 1-2 minutes. ebay should automatically extend the auction for 2 minutes each time a bid is received within the last 2 minutes. Steve

[#5]

I've heard the theory about extending the auctions before too. Personally, I think that when something says: Ends Jul-21-04 18:30:15 PDT that it's pretty clear and it should mean something. Extending auctions would just give it the appearance of one big game. Banning sniping might not turn me off, but an extended pissing contest which starts during the final minute would definately accomplish that. It sound nice in theory, but after awhile collectors would tire of it. I think there's bigger things which should be addressed with ebay, and from my perspective sniping doesn't make the list. Leo

[#6]

I second Leo's s comments

[#7]

Academically I would make the following argument. Many sellers believe that starting an item at $1 (or $.01 Jay) results in the item achieving the market price. However I believe eBay's format and the rapid education of buyers and availability of automated sniping make this not the case. In fact sniping begets more sniping (remember the first time you got sniped as a buyer?) If all buyers are snipers and let's say all the bids come in the last 10 seconds, the item has very little possibility of achieving the true market value. Sniping allows the buyer to game the system and put price pressure on the seller. Extending bidding like you have in a real-world auction does achieve the real market value because every bidder has a chance to get their max bid on the table and not game the last 10 seconds of the auction. Points/counter-points? Scot

[#8]

Scot; I lean in this direction as well and I think snipers (in the conventional sense) hurt the seller and the final value fee's. Many a time I have been sniped (because I can't outbid myself) and would gladly have paid a higher price but was never afforded the opportunity. I am NOT against bidding robots, I think that a minor modification to the auction closing would result in higher final value fee's for the seller. Call me strange but human nature dictates that we still don't trust computers and/or as a bidder have this sneaky feeling that the seller can somehow bump the price up... or that some (0) feedback newly registered bidder jacks the price and then bails. As an aside, I will never bid against a (0) feedback bidder and personally think that eBAY should do something about that. Unless you're credit card verified, as a newly registered (0)feedback bidder you can't bid on more than ten auctions or in an amount that exceeds $500. You know how many NPB complaints that would take care of!!! I need to speak as a buyer here. There is an item offered for $100 (no reserve), I am willing to pay $400 but there are no bidders... I am not entering $400... I enter $100... maybe 2-3-4 bidders come along and I bump my bid up to $225-$250... as the auction draws near I get ready for some action... thinking I might have to raise my bid... whamo... five seconds... and there is the $260 bid... no time for me to enter $300... That sniper just cost the seller $40... and established a new lower selling price for the item... now everybody comes along and says... 'yea, but the last one sold for $240'. I think the sniper problem is bigger than most sellers realize, I read somewhere between 8-12% of all auctions are completed with snipers. 700 million auctions 10% 70 million auctions with snipers... lets assume that 10% of those resulted in a non-sniper bidder being beat out and willing to pay $10 more... that's $70 million in additional final value fee's the sellers DON'T GET... Hey, I'd take it... I'm not proud... :) Marek

[#9]

Marek, Many a time I have been sniped (because I can't outbid myself) and would gladly have paid a higher price but was never afforded the opportunity. The key to winning, whether you snipe or not, is to bid the maximum amount you're willing to pay. You HAD the opportunity to pay a higher price all the time, you just didn't bid accordingly. Changing the rules isn't going to help you in those circumstances, but bidding your MAX amount will. Scot, Extending bidding like you have in a real-world auction does achieve the real market value because every bidder has a chance to get their max bid on the table and not game the last 10 seconds of the auction. Academically, I think snipers probably bid much higher than people think, because it's a contest they have to win. 2 or 3 snipers jumping in can increase the final price very substantially because they are bidding their max's to win. It's not a real auction. At a real auction, sure, people will stick around and keep bidding until they're satisfied enough to stop. On ebay... a computer? Honestly, after it gets extended one time, I have better things to do than play games. People who need it absolutely "today" are novices anyway, because most things are going to turn up again given time. People snipe because they've learned a bit, and I don't think they'll continue playing a game if the rules were changed. I believe it's offered on a couple of other sites, none of which has ever pulled considerable market share because of extended bidding. That's just IMHO as a collector. It sounds great, but I don't think it would have the positive effect that people hope for. I, for one, would probably just not bother looking anymore. As I said, I don't have time for games. When I walk to the computer to bid at a certain time, it is my expectation to win and pay for it within 5 minutes. Again, I think there's more productive things to go for.... having ebay add another 100,000 lines of script in an effort to control bidding doesn't really strike me as the way to go. Leo

[#10]

Hi everybody, Extended bidding should be installed as an option in the eBay selling format. This way it would be the seller's decision wether he chooses this specific option or not. Subsequently it would be the buyer's decision wether he bids in an auction using this option or not. I don't see anything wrong with adding new options of any kind to the selling format. If no one uses them, they will disappear anyway. 'Limit the final 30 seconds of bidding to existing bidders.' Good idea, Marek. As a matter of fact, one of the best I heard this year. Best wishes, Alexander (from Phuket, Thailand)

[#11]

"Limit the final 30 seconds of bidding to existing bidders." You mean the bidders who are too cheap to win under the current structure? " I don't see anything wrong with adding new options of any kind to the selling format." Ebay's been adding options, constantly, for a couple of years now.... where's all the benefit in increased profits? The site has gone from a million lines of code to about 6 million, fees have gone up and seller profits have gone down. All I see is declining sales that seem to correspond with the improvements. Honestly, we keep hearing that profits are down because there's too many sellers, blah blah blah, etc., etc.. But I think you also have to point at a net decrease in active bidders. Why are they leaving? Maybe because they're tired of increasing load times, frozen browsers and pop-ups? I mean, ebay's not the only website in the world with the mistaken illusion that everybody is on broadband, but somebody should let them know that a ton of people DO use their back buttons. Or maybe because the bidders are leary of the fraud? Ebay's response.... 3 day suspensions to powerseller shill bidders, now that is really encouraging and that's if ebay decides to act at all. Or maybe they're just fed-up with the outstanding customer service? Who can go find the CS web-portal in 2 minutes and post the link here? And we're all experts! Most casual users aren't going to keep going to new pages to reach customer service, they just leave! So cut the number of sellers, or increase the number of bidders and prevent them from leaving afterwards. Those are the real issues affecting prices. I don't think it has a thing to do with sniping. I am absolutely convinced that if you start trying to deter people from sniping by adding new options, you'll drive the majority of them away. It's human nature, once people think it's a game they lose interest. And that's what I think they would interpret it as. Buyers don't care about seller arguments that it's needed to maximize profits.... in fact, most buyers don't go to auctions to pay "full" price, they go looking for bargains. I think a change would ultimately be viewed as a turn-off, and detrimental to all sellers. Leo

[#12]

Hi Leo; In theory entering the highest amount you're willing to pay sounds nice and in a perfect world that might work. The last thing in the world you want to see though is an auction with a staring price of $100 where you entered a bid of $1,000 and the auction closes with 27 bids and you win for $950... only to discover that the previous 10 high bidders were all (0) feedback bidders and you've essentially just outbid YOURSELF by $200. Look at bid retractions. Those are sellers who have shill bidders sniffing out the highest price the real buyers have entered. We're not talking about the professional sellers here, I mean the smaller sellers... these are common things they do all the time and entering your maximum bid amount is frankly not a very smart move. If I am bidding against sincere buyers with feedback who have bought like items, then yes... absolutely I have to take my best shot and enter my highest price. My original idea of limiting the last 30 seconds to bidders in the auction now appears not to be the best idea... and has been replaced... KUDOS to 1busyman for thinking of it. But I do very much like the 30 seconds beyond the last highest bid option. I mean come on, if you're the seller... and I am the buyer and willing to pay more... you mean to want to restrict me from offering you that increase. This only serves to maximize your return. Everybody wins, eBAY gets higher final value fee's, you get more income, the highest bidder feels 'he's won' something... no other bidders feel cheated. I like this a lot!!! I really do... So along comes the sniper, no problem... he bids and I can now say... you know what... I am willing to pay an extra $50 for this... I have been following this auction for a week and I am not going to let this guy have it. Where is the harm in this? Who looses? I think this has legs. Marek PS: As JoeFriday said: "I only bid using a snipe program. There is no question IT KEEPS PRICES DOWN".

[#13]

Extended bidding as a seller option would never work. Want to frustrate buyers and add confusion to a already complex eBay? Then have some auctions ending when stated and others leading buyers on in two minute increments. I also do not believe that with eBays present code -- such a "live bidding" scenario can be added in. You are talking about something that would be very complex and would add considerable system load -- thousands of additional calculations would be added per second. You are asking the servers to constantly monitor and determine if bids have been placed within the last two minutes, and if so, calculate a new ending time based upon the time of the last bid. Then repeat the process on and on per item. Folks, it will never happen. I also agree with Leo. All that has been described is the human inability to timely out-snipe the sniping programs. eBay auctions give you 3, 5, 7, or 10 days to place your proxy bids. There truly is no reason to wait until the last ten seconds. Lastly, it is difficult enough to get serious bidders to find and bid on items. The proposal to slam the door on buyers who prefer to play their hand in the last minutes of the sale is good why? Not thanks, this is a bad idea -- unless you only spend time on eBay bidding and not Selling! Regards Barry

[#14]

Marek, Shill bidding is a seperate issue, and I think it's ultimately part of the decline in bidding activity. Ebay's response to shill bidding is a joke, nothing more than a slap on the wrist. I view that as a bigger issue. Ebay used to take it seriously, but that's not the impression anymore. I wonder why? I think you neglect to understand the "psyche" of a sniper. Some snipers do it to save money. Some do it because they fear shill bidding. Some do it because they like the challenge. I guess everybody has their differing reasons. Now, I can't say for a fact what the end result would be. But I can tell you from my perspective, that I would not sit there and tolerate auction extensions. I bid one time, and I bid my max. If I lose, that's my fault. If I win, then tough luck for the folks who bid early but didn't bid enough. The next time, they will probably bid more. So if you turn-off a sniper and just stick with the early bidders, how are you increasing profits? Ebay's "auction" format has always been luck and timing, and I don't think that's ever going to change. Maximum market price is only realized with the right people logging in at the right time. Something that you can't give away for $10 one month, might go for $100 a week later. All luck and timing. If a seller on ebay is sending stuff out at a loss, that's not a problem which stems from ebay or sniping. A loss is incurred because of either bad timing, or the seller wanted to save a buck in listing fees and gave it away on his own. Only one of those can be fixed, timing never will be. IMHO :) Leo

[#15]

I would not want to shut any one out. What happens to the guy that just finds your item makes sure it's what he wants then goes to enter his bid and is shut out because there are only 20 seconds left. As far as extending auctions there are sites that do that and they are where compared to eBay. There is a system in place that will ensure you will win if you want it bad enough. Glen

[#16]

I vote for educating the buyer here guys! Many newer eBayers and some veterans as well have no idea what proxy bidding is. If somehow this feature was conveyed better to the buyer, then all that was said here would not be needed and there would be no "snipers". Mike

[#17]

"Ebay used to take it seriously, but that's not the impression anymore. I wonder why?" Well, Leo, I'm sure you know why or you wouldn't have said this. Just off the top of my head, I can think of two of the biggest sellers in my category, running 900 auctions a week, all with featured plus. That's a nice and tidy chunk for ebay, plus hefty final values. . . We collect several things that are sought after by others as well. I snipe everything. I don't want anyone "following my bid" (as I do with others to find some misspelled, wrongly described item that I'm going to win for a song by snapping it up at the last minute. That's a major reason for sniping among collectors. I don't want to sit at the computer, either, waiting for the auction to end. I love my sniping program and I encourage our buyers, who are always writing boo-hooing after the auction ends about losing at the last second, to use it as well. A couple of snipers in the very end ~ love it. I don't even mind ONE sniper at the end, because we price our listings such that we're not losing money if it sells at the opening bid. I agree, $1 and no reserve is an invitation for shilling.

[#18]

Scot, I agree with Leo's statements: 'Extending bidding like you have in a real-world auction does achieve the real market value because every bidder has a chance to get their max bid on the table and not game the last 10 seconds of the auction. Academically, I think snipers probably bid much higher than people think, because it's a contest they have to win. 2 or 3 snipers jumping in can increase the final price very substantially because they are bidding their max's to win.' If snipers know they are competing against other snipers, they will insert a higher max bid and the sales price will take a much higher jump. john

[#19]

Interesting discussion! Here's another datapoint to consider. We have a large seller that was doing some wholesale auctions on eBay and left because of sniping. They had a buyer base of a couple hundred and very rapidly the bidding went from an evenly distributed bidding pattern to 100% sniping very rapidly. The seller moved to a private auction format where there is extended bidding. The extended bidding is simple and buyers understand it: If a bid comes in at the last 5 minutes, then extend the auction five more minutes. Over 80% of the items "extend" (those with 3+ bidders) and the extended bidding results in 10-40% lift. I believe the longest extended bidding we've seen is 2-3hrs between two buyers who really wanted a hot lot. Who here wouldn't like to see a net 8-30% lift? If you have buyers that want an immediate gratification, then that's what BIN is for IMO. The auction format lends itself best to those items where you have more demand than supply and you leverage that competition to reach market price (market price being the most a valid buyer will pay for something). I agree with Marek, I NEVER use proxy bidding because I've been burned by it a zillion times in a variety of ways. So now as a buyer I'm relegated to sniping (I use esnipe and it's VERY effective) and then occasionally there are killer items where I would have paid a little more, but lost the "snipe race". Had these things extended... Barry - the code to extend as I have described isn't that bad, ebay has technology to do this already. Leo - sure nobody is going to wait around for a DVD to close and do the extended bidding thing. But a $1000 rare collectible or a plasma TV or a laptop, sure. Alexander - agree with you, it should be like immediate pay - a seller option. Scot

[#20]

Scot I totally agree with the extended time periods. Check out this item here http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=14000&item=2254081189 I have been selling 2-3 per month on ebay. It is a rare collectors item and almost every time after the auction ends, i get emails from other bidders who either bid and lost or missed out on bidding. I am confident if auction time was extended, ASP's would be higher on this item. Also the code cannot be that hard, remember way back Yahoo auctions used to have this feature. Steve