Notice left by USPS, buyer hasn't picked up item

[#1]

Had someone buy some coins from me.  He paid on the 20th, I shipped on the 21st.  On the 23rd, USPS tracking reports "Notice left."  Item cost $249.95 with free shipping.  I sent First Class package insured with DC.  Since the insurance is > $200, USPS requires a signature.  I sent the buyer a politely worded reminder that his package is at his local PO but so far no response.

I'm starting to wonder if maybe the buyer has changed his mind and is just going to let the 15 days run out so USPS will return the package to me. 

I have a "No returns" policy.  Anybody know what eBay's position will be if the item is shipped back and he files an INR looking for a full refund?  I'm also wondering what the tracking will show and will I have to sign for it?

[#2]

Email the buyer again and tell him that if the item is returned to you and he wants it, he will have to repay the shipping.

IF it's returned and he files an item not received, Ebay will refund him and they , of course will screw you .  Not fair.  You will lose the shipping.

Also,  Idon't think that the post office holds an item 15 days.  My post office is 3 or 4 notices left and then the item is returned.

[#3]

I found the following in the eBay Buyer Protection documentation:

"As a buyer, you can file a case under the eBay Buyer Protection Policy when all of the following are true:

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There is a good faith dispute between you and the seller regarding the item.

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A good faith dispute does not exist ... if you refuse to accept shipment of the item.

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If a buyer returns an item without agreement from the seller through eBay Messages, we will not cover the buyer's case for the return and will not hold the seller accountable."

I know eBay strongly favors buyers but the above seems pretty clear.

[#4]

Make sure you have written the buyer through my messages that his package is at the post office and a notice was left. Remind him to pick it up timely and if it is shipped back to you, he will have to pay for reshipping. Ebay will support you as a seller if you shipped to the address given to you from them and paypal and if you have that tracking, you will be fine. I had a similar case and since I did all I was supposed to do as a seller, I won. I also called customer service and you can ask them to send an email to the buyer on your behalf as well which they did, confirming I did all I was responsible for as a seller. 

[#5]

the "tracking" will show not delivered, attempted, but still not delivered. so buyer will gat their $ back.

best if it's returned to just refund buyer 100% and let it e a business lesson. file the unpaid bidder after you refund to try and get fees back.

[#6]

You can't file an unpaid alert once a paypal payment is made.   You need to file a mutual cancellation.  If in 7days, the buyer doesn't respond, you will automatically get your fvfsback.

Make sure that you block this bidder.  Since you wrote FREE SHIPPING, you need to return the full amount.  Had you written a shipping charge, I would NOT have refunded the shipping..

I would refund ONLY after getting the item back.. I would take my time refunding too... I would NOT refund the first day that  I got my item back..

CHECK IT TO MAKE SURE THAT IT'S YOUR ITEM IN THE SAME IDENTICAL CONDITION.

[#7]

I think tracking will show either refused or unclaimed and returned to sender.  I'd also like to add to post #2 that by ebay policy if an item is refused the buyer loses all buyer protection.  I don't know if by losing all buyer protection by refusing it forces to buyer to pay return postage to have it delivered again or lose their $$??  By losing buyer protection you lose in any dispute you may file against a seller??  Ebay won't cover your back so you have to work it out with the seller??