Gut Feelings = Nonsense
I continue to read about sellers canceling or considering cancelling a sale because of a “gut feeling.†Even worse, some have actually claimed to have “spidey senses.†Do the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker? He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.
Folks, none of us are psychics, and no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams. No one is scamming you for a $10 cookbook, and there is no grand plot to swindle you out of two pairs of underwear and a candle.
From a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.
Unavailable member
Posted 2 years ago·Last reply 2 years ago
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35 comments
quicksilverdiecast
·2 years agoThat was an action that sellers have taken in lieu of not being able to leave neg feedback to deserving buyers, and since they whined to ebay back then that they will leave ebay...ebay caved in and disallows leaving anything but a positive feedback which we all know is not reality...so it pretty much leaves it up to a sellers discretion at how to judge a buyer....when you have a message asking what color your black floor mats that you have listed as being black and pictured black...you pretty much know that trouble is not far behind, and with the excellent ebay seller support as well as all the strings attached to a neg feedback...it is far less of a headache just to cancel/block some....I will stick with the 38% who are correct.
sin-n-dex
·2 years agoGut feelings usually stem from experiences. There's a person at work who calls in sick once or twice a week, and I can predict which days she's going to call in. Usually that has to do with the schedule, I can tell when she's going to suddenly get a migraine and not be able to work. I had a close friend that was predictable in that sense that I knew when I should make other plans for the day because she'd have a migraine and be unavailable. There's something to be said about predictable behaviour.
Not all things are predictable and eBay sales can be, or maybe not. I wouldn't cancel a sale because of a hunch since a hunch is not a good enough reason to cancel a legitimate sale. There's only a couple people I cancel on when they keep coming back to buy from me again (because they've scammed me before and I know who they are, so I can predict they will scam me again).
I have a contact that I run situations by, this person has been in customer service and sales for over 40 years and can tell me about certain behaviours, whether they indicate malice or are just the indication of a certain type of customer. I had one customer winning almost everything yesterday, and I ran the facts by this person last night and he told me "placing last minute bids and spending three hours on your auctions indicates interest, someone who is interfering would just bid to the moon over a short time and never be outbid". I was a little concerned when I saw the same person winning almost everything for prices much higher than I expected, but as it turns out, buyer is overseas, and the items are very valuable to him. We ran situations of things in the past to compare the behaviours and my contact told me not to worry about yesterday's auctions with this one bidder.
so basically if I went by hunches I might have cancelled... but experience helps a lot. I've often said in the forum to newer members that what they're talking about is not an indication of being scammed, but indicates something else (like an interested customer that likes their item).
C.
the_fancy_fox
·2 years agoExperience. Yes I can spot a trouble transaction out the gate. Gut feeling? Just another word to me for experience. I call it a gut feeling when the first warning signs are flying.
And yes, people do scam for $10 cookbooks. Its a game to them as they figure no one is going to call them out for a cheap book. My cheapest scammer got me for $6.00. Bought a shirt, claimed it was damaged, sent it back and it was the wrong shirt, wrong color, torn and seriously worn. So yeah, it happens.
Can you post a link to that article? I cant find anything from Harvard about it. Did find one from Harvard business news about millionaire investors and how their gut feelings on marketing and investing were spot on.
a_c_green
·2 years agoSo the "H" in "HMS" stands for Harvard? I asked yesterday what HMS stood for and where one might find a link to the quoted statistic. I really wish people would spell out their acronyms the first time they mention the term in print.
the_fancy_fox
·2 years agoI think so, when I typed it in along with gut feeling and intuition all I got was diseases of the intestines…..
mtgraves7984
·2 years agoGod gave me a gut feeling for a reason. Granted that I don't think it was for selling on eBay... but I use it when I need to.
chapeau-noir
·2 years agoHMS as far as I know deals chiefly with students and thus their study methodology will reflect this. "62%" is a curiously precise number.
I don't cancel sales here, but in life every time I've ignored my gut feeling I've regretted it. And all 'gut feelings' are really is a conclusion based upon myriad input and experience over a period of time and a valuable quality called 'instinct' - instinct has kept people alive in some of the worst situations. Yes, it seems silly over low-dollar items (though guess what, my most troublesome buyers have been over low-dollar items) and some people do draw faulty conclusions. But just dismissing it in general is to fail to understand, really, how the human mind works.
toomuchstuffagain35
·2 years ago^^This
gamersbaystore
·2 years agoLooking at a buyers feedback can tell you a lot! If they're scamming and harassing sellers galore, count me out, their transaction is getting cancelled and they're getting blocked. Why would anyone willingly want to do business with someone who is obviously defrauding others? You don't need spidey senses to use logic.
selsa84
·2 years agoThat's why when I receive an offer I check their feedback left for others. If I see tons of reds I block them. It's common sense not Spidey sense.
Unavailable member
OP2 years agoExactly - something concrete, absolutely, make an informed decision. Canceling because the buyer that orders two pairs of underwear and a candle must be a scammer, well that is just silly.
sextons-sweet-deals
·2 years agoIt looks like you're only selling $12 items. How do you ship those items safe and secure without being folded / bent with free shipping and still make a profit? Even if you rolled up in a tube, that is still going to cost with the dims and weight shipping calculations.
A seller has the right to review their buyers just as any potential buyer has the right to review the seller.
What we have today is the scammer who creates multiple I.D.'s, guest accounts, using stolen gift card numbers, using vacant houses for shipping address and so on.
I had a few with the vacant looking house and shipped with signature required. The item ends up coming back in about a month as undeliverable.
The scam game keeps changing and sellers need to keep their guard up.
I sell more expensive stuff than $12, so I keep my guard up and do my research before shipping.
sin-n-dex
·2 years agoSince when did this thread turn into a discussion about what the OP sells?
C.
luckythewinner
·2 years agoDo the adults on the boards actually think that they have the same powers as the one-of-a-kind Peter Parker? He is a fictional character, mind you, that received those powers in a bizarre set of circumstances.
No, they do not think they were bit by a radioactive spider. They may be simply using a pop culture phrase to refer to "intuition" about fraudulent intent about buyers on eBay , which is often rooted in prior fraud that shared similar characteristics.
no god has bestowed on you a special early warning system for scams
No argument there. But there are many common signs of a scam, and past experience can inform future behavior.
For example: If a seller is contacted by a buyer who first tries to take a transaction off eBay and then later defrauds them, they might have a gut feeling that it also will happen the next time a buyer tries to take a transaction off eBay.
Or if a past buyer pestered them with messages about delivery time and then filed an "Item Not Received" dispute way too early, they might have a gut feeling the next time a buyer seems overly concerned about delivery time.
oldwestcoins
·2 years agoYes, I do. Under my main selling ID, I sell items in the hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars. I've been here 24 years and I do have a good business sense of a possible dead-beat buyer. Especially after the sale, I Google the address and name of the buyer. If either doesn't pass the smell test, I cancel the sale. I will take the rating hit versus losing big bucks. Until you sell several million dollars' worth without a loss, you will never understand. If you have to cite a study for anything, you have already lost. And you seriously sell pages cut out of magazines for $12.50? Good luck!
reallynicestamps
·2 years agoI usually Google addresses because I am nosy and easily bored.
The only ones that worry me are gated communities. Those people are paranoid.
oldwestcoins
·2 years agoNosy? LOL Well, then there is that too. The ones showing a vacant lot worry me.
Unavailable member
OP2 years agoWhat you are talking about is actual data to analyze- not gut feelings. Googling an address and finding an empty lot is far different than someone spooked because a buyer ordered two pairs of underwear and a candle.
i am a bit confused as to how you thinking that ephemera is silly backs up that select folks have real spidey senses. If that was just a low key attempt at bullying, it didn’t really land with me.
an-57470
·2 years agoDeleted.
fashunu4eeuh
·2 years agoDeveloped over many years, I believe one’s gut instincts can be the result of keen judgment, coupled with experience and application of one’s knowledge.
The human brain is a marvel—it can absorb myriad data, and in a split second, give helpful feedback to its owner. That is, if one has the mindfulness to notice.
It is not the sole element of my decision-making, but I have come to rely on it as another trusted source of information when making important or difficult choices.
a_c_green
·2 years ago...and 72% of all statistics are just made up. ðŸ˜
Okay, kidding... who or what is HMS? I'd be curious to know how they reached that result.
lakefor94
·2 years ago@powell-memorabilia
After 24 years and the last 7 as fulltime online sales, I had better be able to sniff out trouble and know when to pull the trigger. None of that takes extra sensory perception. Just solid sales experience and the ability and perserervence to get out the shovel and do a little digging. No rocket science to it.
slati_2013
·2 years agoI do not cancel sales but I can tell when one will be trouble. It starts with the buyer asking countless questions that are already answered in the listings or they should know if they are buying the item in question.
I have a buyer who says he is returning an item he bought. I tried to explain to him how the item works. He would not listen. Insistent that he is working with someone else who is an expert in the item. I gave up and accepted the return.
So yes, you can tell who will be trouble, but if they buy and pay, I ship. I deal with whatever happens.
ittybitnot
·2 years agoFrom a recent HMS study, 62% of gut feelings are flat-out wrong.
@powell-memorabilia
Does that infer that 38% are right? I would think in general, some humans are more intuitive than others. Some are more in touch with life events in general, have more experience and a better capacity for what is called 'incidental learning'.
For example, it doesn't take a psychic to know that a the combination of a newbie seller + Iphone + eBAy + freight forwarder + phony claim is going to be trouble around here.
Unlike others, am not able to always 'spot a scam a mile away'. Maybe there are lots of people simply smarter than me, and it is not super powers at all. So I spend time reading and learning to fine tune and improve my gut feeling and spidey sense, no matter what it is called.
ten_o_nine
·2 years agoYou're absolutely right! It's astonishing how some sellers on eBay attribute their cancelation of sales to a "gut feeling" or "spidey senses." Newsflash: Peter Parker's fictional powers aren't real, and neither are yours!
It's essential to rely on facts, evidence, and concrete indicators when making decisions, rather than unfounded intuition. As you mentioned, the likelihood of being scammed over a $10 cookbook or a few pairs of underwear is incredibly low.
The statistic you shared from the HMS study is eye-opening: 62% of gut feelings are incorrect. This highlights the importance of critical thinking and objective evaluation in decision-making.
Thanks for promoting a rational approach and discouraging the reliance on unproven instincts. Let's keep the eBay community grounded in reality!
1786davycrockett
·2 years ago@ten_o_nine
"Newsflash: Peter Parker's fictional powers aren't real, and neither are yours!"
Good to know -- this costume has begun rising in the crotch, and I'm getting constant chills from living in this cave, and I have better things to do at night than prowl the city, hunting down evil.
Perhaps I can find a buyer for this slightly used Bat-Car on Facebook Marketplace.
(Special discounted price of $1800.00 in eBay gift cards. . ..)
12345jamesstamps
·2 years agoI have never cancel a sale...sometimes "gut feeling" is out there.
But I usually just make sure I don't spend the earned money of a big sale for a month or so.
We will all get a lousy sale at some point at selling.
silverstatetreasureboxes
·2 years agoWell, yes we do have a mechanism against possible danger and it's called our fight or flight response. Gut feelings are very important for humans when they suspect something could cause danger or harm (animal kingdom as well) so scams could possibly fall into this category as well.
calling out my fellow nurses to back me up, Mam, Bon!
evry1nositswindy
·2 years ago@silverstatetreasureboxes I'm not a nurse, but I have a degree in psychology. Yes, fight or flight response is a real phenomenon. I've got your back!
dirk12955
·2 years agoWhile I agree 100% that some sellers mistakenly see a scam around every corner and under every rock,
After 24 years selling on ebay as a seller, I can recognize a problem transaction
immediately and I'm almost never wrong.
I've been buying from and selling to other human beings since 1968 and can see a problem coming
from a mile away.
sin-n-dex
·2 years agoI'm not that good (but have been here 26 years, as a customer mostly). That's kind of why I run my issues by this other person that will analyze the situation based on information I provide and answers to questions. I find he's rarely ever wrong.
C.
lakefor94
·2 years agoReal nice to have a goto vetter.
sin-n-dex
·2 years agoIt's my ex-husband and I miss him dearly being in the same house to consult with 24/7 about issues. He's nice enough to let me call when he finishes work for an hour discussion about my eBay business and various issues to get feedback on.
But alas, we don't get along living in the same house, so separate, but not completely separated.
C.
chapeau-noir
·2 years agoMy ex- and I should have stuck to being friends lol.
GENERAL: If it's the HMS I'm thinking of, it's the Healthy Minds Study - a research institute that does surveys, holds symposia, does utilization in mental health, etc. I have no idea of statistical accuracy or methodology in their polls, but they work generally with colleges and universities.
a_c_green
·2 years agoI field inquiries from friends and family on a slow but steady basis. The trick is to extract enough details from them to make an informed decision.
Too often the first I'll hear of the situation is that they think they're being "scammed" or their buyer is "acting weird" or whatever, so first we have to back up a bit and step through what has happened so far... more facts, less opinions... and then I find it's not too hard to decide on what to recommend next.
Unfortunately I remember one conversation with a co-worker who had sent his iPhone to Russia and was wondering why his payment hadn't arrived yet. "Um, yes, you were scammed. [Next time why not ask me before you go and do something stupid?]" (Quotes within square brackets were not spoken out loud. ðŸ˜)