ebay reports Q1 results on Wed May 1st

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

While the results will be of interest, I'll be following the Conference Call (time permitting) to see if Jamie has anything to say about the strategy for this year and any new initiatives (beyond the inevitable "AI is Magic!")

There hasn't been a really new "focus category" in ages, so it's possible we're going to hear about another "evolution" in ebay's "Winning strategy".

Or then again, we'll just hear the same old same old.

And, as usual, if you don't have time to read the ebay reports or digest the Conference Call, I strongly recommend checking the valueaddedresource blog for the best coverage of the report.

As for those who are interested in the stock price, I believe today it was very close to its 52 week high, so shareholders seem to have some confidence in ebay's management.

[chapeau-noir]

Maybe the stock price is reacting to Jamie's neeeeeewwwwwww C2C strategy!

Yes! Everything new is old again!

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@chapeau-noir From what I can tell, the market is probably reacting to a recent report from one of the stock analysts which is putting a lot of faith in Jamie's claims about the Magic of AI. 

And, one reason I want to see the report and listen to the call is, so far, Jamie has not really announced his new c to c strategy. We've been seeing hints that he might be headed more in that direction and less in the direction of focus categories, but the Q1 Report is the perfect opportunity for him to spell out whether we're right about that or not.

[luckythewinner]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@chapeau-noir From what I can tell, the market is probably reacting to a recent report from one of the stock analysts which is putting a lot of faith in Jamie's claims about the Magic of AI. 

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It's not just one analyst.

[chapeau-noir]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@chapeau-noir From what I can tell, the market is probably reacting to a recent report from one of the stock analysts which is putting a lot of faith in Jamie's claims about the Magic of AI. 

And, one reason I want to see the report and listen to the call is, so far, Jamie has not really announced his new c to c strategy. We've been seeing hints that he might be headed more in that direction and less in the direction of focus categories, but the Q1 Report is the perfect opportunity for him to spell out whether we're right about that or not.

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What I'm basing my (only half-joking) remark is on some some of the observations from @valueaddedresource  blog:

https://www.valueaddedresource.net/ebay-q4-2023-earnings-leaning-in-on-c2c-pivot-ads-continue-to-dri...

(March of this year)

With some drive to that on the UK and German platforms and dropping CS for two of the vertical focus categories here.

But I suspect you're right about the AI - the stock market reacts to a pin drop so this gets them all excited.

May 1 will be interesting!

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@chapeau-noir yes, I agree with @valueaddedresource , but right now, it is mostly speculation... I'm hoping to see Jamie confirm it. Also, frankly, I expect if he does, he will do so by explaining that it's just a small evolution in their existing strategy, which is working great.

[chapeau-noir]

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@my-cottage-books-and-antiques wrote:

@chapeau-noir yes, I agree with @valueaddedresource , but right now, it is mostly speculation... I'm hoping to see Jamie confirm it. Also, frankly, I expect if he does, he will do so by explaining that it's just a small evolution in their existing strategy, which is working great.

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😁  That is certainly true - I have no doubt that C2C will be another vertical in Jamie's Vertical World.

ETA: But I agree, C2C is trivial nonsense insofar as the Market is concerned, it's AI that gets them all drooly and excited.

[campanaelia]

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@chapeau-noir wrote:

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C2C is trivial nonsense insofar as the Market is concerned, it's AI that gets them all drooly and excited.

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Ebay has been using AI for the last few years now and IMO the site has become more user unfriendly to both buyer and sellers with every change. I can't even think of one positive change and think most would agree.

Auto-pay is another disaster, thankfully they did away with it for auctions but it seems they're doubling down on it for offers. The most recent new twist includes offers from sellers which makes it impossible to get a combined shipping invoice before paying because their is no way to commit to buy, "you snooze you lose".

I highly doubt the auto-pay policy has ever increased buyers that were never serious in the first place to suddenly buy, but what did happen is it decreased paying buyers from buying as much as they use to before auto-pay, I am one of them. I wonder if they'll discuss any of those results.

[dbfolks166mt]

     Some interesting analysis. You often see stock prices increase for companies that pay dividends right before the quarterly dividend payout and then the stock prices falls and the cycle continues. 

https://news.alphastreet.com/what-to-expect-when-ebay-ebay-reports-q1-2024-earnings-results/#:~:text....

     EBay's stock price has always seen significant ups and downs and while no where near the pandemic high their stock price has risen over the last 5 years but not quite as good as the Dow on Average. 

[siamjane8]

     AI has been a complete joke for ebay- I agree with @campanaelia that with nearly every change in the past few years - buyer and seller satisfaction has fallen. Actual people who use the platform are not happy.

Stock holders are a different beast- they could care less about the reality of the company as long as they are getting a divided- when the chickens come home to roost- they sell.... wait until it bottoms out and buy again.  

     If Jamie would announce that they are going back to eBay's roots and are just gong to show buyers what they actually searched for and just connect buyers and sellers an an unprecedented rate- wow- that would be amazing!  Sales would soar because people could see what they searched for instead of unrelated promoted listings! 

   I can see a new slogan and a limited release hat- MEGA   ( Make Ebay Great Again)  ... lol

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

@chapeau-noir  Well, technically, c to c already is one of the definitions of an "enthusiast buyer"--basically, small sellers who also buy on the site. So Jamie can claim targeting c to c is just another effort to target enthusiast buyers, and so no change really, everything is going as planned LOL

But frankly, if Jamie wants to pretend a shift to c to c was in the plan all along, that's fine by me.....as long as ebay actually comes up with effective ways to recognize the value of the c to c base and actually grow GMV (not merely the take rate). 

I think, as you say, AI is getting investors excited, its the shiny new thing , but as sellers, I think most of us are less enthusiastic about AI and we aren't particularly keen on even greater take rate increases...what we'd like to see...well, what I'd like to see, at least....is serious site marketing and serious GMV growth. I'd like to see sellers given better tools and more autonomy.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

Should be an interesting report and conference call later today. 

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

While ebay no longer competes with Amazon, according to ebay's CEO, it might still be interesting to some here to see how Amazon's Q1 went:

"Amazon grew North American sales 12% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024 and grew international sales by 10% (or by 11% excluding changes in foreign exchange rates). North America comprised 60% of the net sales mix, and International 22%. Amazon’s AWS business comprised 18% of the net sales mix.

Amazon saw worldwide paid units grow 12% in the first quarter (compared to 8% a year ago). Third-party sellers accounted for 61% of worldwide paid units in the first quarter (compared to 59% in the first quarter of 2023.)"

[chapeau-noir]

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@siamjane8 wrote:

     AI has been a complete joke for ebay- I agree with @campanaelia that with nearly every change in the past few years - buyer and seller satisfaction has fallen. Actual people who use the platform are not happy.

Stock holders are a different beast- they could care less about the reality of the company as long as they are getting a divided- when the chickens come home to roost- they sell.... wait until it bottoms out and buy again.  

     If Jamie would announce that they are going back to eBay's roots and are just gong to show buyers what they actually searched for and just connect buyers and sellers an an unprecedented rate- wow- that would be amazing!  Sales would soar because people could see what they searched for instead of unrelated promoted listings! 

   I can see a new slogan and a limited release hat- MEGA   ( Make Ebay Great Again)  ... lol

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That's the sticking point - a search engine that can handle billions of searches from almost 2 billion products, and do it quickly enough to  keep interest. The old literal search engine was unable to do this.

My biggest problem is how algorithms are written.

ETA: I'm not sure what happened with the quote function.

[my-cottage-books-and-antiques]

"eBay's Q1 results marked a strong start to 2024 as we continue to make progress toward our goal of sustainable GMV growth," said Jamie Iannone, Chief Executive Officer at eBay. "We believe our accelerating pace of innovation is fundamentally changing the selling and buying experience on eBay, generating better outcomes for customers, increasing productivity across our organization, and ultimately driving more value for shareholders."

"Our Q1 results highlight the resilience of our marketplace and business model amid persistent challenges in the global economy," said Steve Priest, Chief Financial Officer at eBay.  "We exceeded our outlook across our key financial metrics and made significant progress against our long-term strategic objectives."

First Quarter Financial Highlights

Revenue was $2.6 billion, up 2% on an as-reported basis and up 2% on a foreign exchange (FX) neutral basis.
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was $18.6 billion, up 1% on an as-reported basis and roughly flat on an FX-Neutral basis.
GAAP net income from continuing operations was $439 million, or $0.85 per diluted share.
Non-GAAP net income from continuing operations was $648 million, or $1.25 per diluted share.
GAAP and Non-GAAP operating margin was 24.7% and 30.3%, respectively.
Generated $615 million of operating cash flow and $472 million of free cash flow.
Returned $638 million to shareholders, including $499 million of share repurchases and $139 million paid in cash dividends.

Business Highlights

eBay's first-party advertising products delivered $370 million of revenue in the first quarter, up 30% on an as-reported basis and up 28% on an FX-Neutral basis.
The company's total advertising offerings generated $384 million of revenue in the first quarter, representing 2.1% of GMV.
In Q1, eBay Motors redesigned the self-service experience for its MyFitment toolkit, simplifying how sellers onboard, view and publish fitment data for Parts & Accessories listings. On the buying side, the new Motors DIY Guides offer expert content for common maintenance jobs alongside eBay listings for the specific parts, tools and materials needed to complete them.
eBay expanded its consignment service to include luxury apparel, giving casual sellers the opportunity to leverage eBay experts to list and sell their luxury apparel on their behalf.
During the quarter, eBay and Balenciaga collaborated to advocate for more sustainability within the fashion industry. At Paris Fashion Week in March, Balenciaga debuted its Winter 24 Collection, a line of co-branded streetwear which sourced pre-loved items from eBay.
To celebrate the world-renowned "Pokémon Day," eBay held a Pokémon "Catch 151" Auction event featuring 151 ultra-rare cards and collectibles at accessible price points. The event highlighted the vast array of Pokémon inventory available on eBay and gave enthusiasts an opportunity to elevate their collections with iconic pieces.
To further reduce friction for sellers, eBay introduced a simplified mobile listing experience for Sports Trading Cards in the U.S. that pre-fills relevant item aspects, offers simplified shipping options, and provides intelligent pricing recommendations to drive measurable improvements in listing time, listing completion and sold items per customer.
The company continued to enhance eBay Live in Q1, expanding to new categories like comics and sports memorabilia and revamping the auctions experience for more seamless bidding. eBay also improved event discoverability by enabling live event viewing on desktop and surfacing personalized live event recommendations on the homepage.
In February, eBay announced the appointment of Zane Rowe, CFO at Workday, to its Board of Directors as well as the company's Audit Committee.
Impact

During the quarter, eBay U.K. and eBay Australia announced their respective Circular Fashion Fund finalists and winner, demonstrating the company's continued commitment to sustainable fashion.
eBay Inc. contributed $9 million to the eBay Foundation in Q1 in support of nonprofit organizations advancing inclusive entrepreneurship.
eBay for Charity contributed more than $46 million globally in Q1, up 18% year-over-year.
More details here:

https://www.streetinsider.com/PRNewswire/eBay+Inc.+Reports+First+Quarter+2024+Results/23155774.html