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sheba*
Community Member
Posts: 5,223
Registered: ‎05-28-2003

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

I think that now, his ambition is to regain the original Soviet Block, and yes, he can probably gain a few more without repercussions....

 

The problem is, that when he sees he can get away with some, will he want to get away with more?  And, if he went for more, would NATO let him?  They really haven't shown much backbone recently either.

 

And his alliances with Syria and Iran, as well as China, are also cause for serious concern.

 

http://www.inc.com/uploaded_files/image/chess-win-pan_12989.jpg

 

 

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to sheba*

Sure, I get that it's a theory.

 

Not so sure about comparing this to what happened at the beginning of WWII.  Do we think Putin's aspirations are just to recoup some or all of the former Soviet republics?  All of the former Iron Curtain countries?  All of Europe?

 

He's an extremely smart guy.  He's a student of history.  And he probably understands the west's options far better than we can anticipate his.  If he chooses correctly he can probably make a couple of more moves with no significant risk of retribution.  My point was that Estonia is not one of those moves, which in my opinion makes it less likely.  

 

Also a theory :smileywink: 

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sheba*
Community Member
Posts: 5,223
Registered: ‎05-28-2003

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

It's a theory, tdz.... It's also reminiscent of how WWII started:  "Just give Hitller a little bit, then maybe he'll leave us alone..."

 

All depends on what Putin decides is in his best interest....

 

One thing all this does, is provide distractions.

 

The US closed its embassy in Syria, and...

 

(Reuters) - Syria and its Russian ally on Wednesday criticized the decision by the United States to suspend the operations of Syria's embassy in Washington and consulates in other cities.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-syria-crisis-russia-usa-idUSBREA2I0RY20140319

 

And since they are the ones that "brokered" the WMD deal (which has pretty much stalled) it's a concern that these weapons will remain, and the earlier concerns about them will be in play again.


http://i.ehow.co.uk/images/a05/ht/nh/adapt-strategies-success-daily-life-800X800.jpg

 

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to runaway2da

Probably I just don't get it, since Estonia is about 4 countries away from Ukraine ...

 

The Baltics seem like an unnecessary diversion to me. 

 

Belarus would scare the bejeesus out of Europe and will be easier pickings.  Belarus back in the fold, they have the eastern borders of Latvia, Lithuania (potential access to Kalingrad) and part of Poland, and have Ukraine 3/4 surrounded, after having Moldova. 

 

That sounds like more effective flanking than Estonia.

 

And nothing more than lipservice from the international community, as neither is in NATO or EU.  Unlike Estonia

 

 

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runaway2da
Community Member
Posts: 3,361
Registered: ‎01-21-2009

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to runaway2da

Take a look at the map.

 

What do you need to control a region?

 

It's not rocket science.

 

You need to control the borders around that region.

 

It's called flanking.

 

The aggressor need to control access to the region to be controlled.

 

In this case. It's not so much that Ukraine and bordering countries has a body of water on one side but where the existing shipping ports are.

 

Russia only need to control specific areas like Crimea and Estonia to choke off the entire region of Ukraine.

 

thCA3LWRQ0.jpg 

------------------------------------------

~The result of shielding men from their follies is filling the world with fools.~

~ There are as many paths as there are people to walk them, and that each person is the best judge of which path they will walk at any given time.~
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sheba*
Community Member
Posts: 5,223
Registered: ‎05-28-2003

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

Actually, Russia is in a pretty good position to do whatever it darn well feels like doing.

 

What I said was they would have to "take" Ukraine, and that could easily be "taking by negotiation" in this case.

 

As I said, I was looking at the map, and looking at the logistics.

 

Moldova itself, is not looking to become Russian.  There is an element that is, much like the situation in Crimea...  however, Crimea was totally adjacent to the Russian border and already had a Russian contingent there.

 

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/chess-defeat-11059760.jpg

 

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

[ Edited ]
in reply to runaway2da

OK, we'll watch and see!  (on oil)

 

Who says they invaded Crimea?

 

Crimea asked for some help maintaining order during upheaval in Ukraine, and then held a referendum to secede, and it passed.  Referenda are as democratic as it gets, right?  The people get to vote directly.  What's wrong with that?

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runaway2da
Community Member
Posts: 3,361
Registered: ‎01-21-2009

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

tdziemianowicz wrote:

They can't raise the price on oil.

 

It doesn't work that way.


Russia could not invade Crimea either.

 

It does not work that way.

 

But they did.

------------------------------------------

~The result of shielding men from their follies is filling the world with fools.~

~ There are as many paths as there are people to walk them, and that each person is the best judge of which path they will walk at any given time.~
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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to runaway2da

They can't raise the price on oil.

 

It doesn't work that way.

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to sheba*

sheba* wrote:

Yes, well, Ukraine is also a member, and we see how well that's going 

 

Yes, but the Russians just bit off a little corner that was connected to their border and already contained a Russian port.

 

Taking over a country that is not contiguous with their border presents a whole other set of logistical as well as political problems.

 


http://files.chesscomfiles.com/images_users/tiny_mce/SonofPearl/Chess_board_image.jpg


Oh, c'mon.  I think most people would agree that Russia is in a rather good position right now to negotiate with Ukraine on access to moves things between Russa and their newly acquired state of Moldova.

Otherwise, there could be mysterious rumblings in Kiev and pleas for help from "our friend to the East."

 

 

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runaway2da
Community Member
Posts: 3,361
Registered: ‎01-21-2009

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

tdziemianowicz wrote:

It is well understood that Russia will not shut off the oil and gas to Europe.

 

Russia needs the money and there is nowhere else to send it!

 

 


They don't need to shut it off.

 

They only need an excuse to raise the prices.

 

All that takes is a crisis!

------------------------------------------

~The result of shielding men from their follies is filling the world with fools.~

~ There are as many paths as there are people to walk them, and that each person is the best judge of which path they will walk at any given time.~
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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to runaway2da

It is well understood that Russia will not shut off the oil and gas to Europe.

 

Russia needs the money and there is nowhere else to send it!

 

 

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runaway2da
Community Member
Posts: 3,361
Registered: ‎01-21-2009

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

tdziemianowicz wrote:

sheba* wrote:

tdziemianowicz wrote:

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint. 


While not a formal member of NATO, Moldova does have NATO connections as a member of EAPC.

 

 The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a NATO institution, is a multilateral forum created to improve relations between NATO and non-NATO countries in Europe and those parts of Asia on the European periphery. States meet to cooperate and go to the range of political and security issues. It was formed on January 1, 1997 as the failure to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) and works alongside the Partnership for Peace (PfP), both created post-Cold War - the former in 1991, the latter in 1994.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Atlantic_Partnership_Council#Members

 

The strategic problem with Moldova, by looking at the map is if Russia takes it without taking at least part of Ukraine, or one of the other countries, it's a tiny country, surrounded by NATO countries, and would be hard for Russia to control without taking at least part of the other countries.

 

http://cerebralsynthesis.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/strategy-chess.jpg

 


Yes, well, Ukraine is also a member, and we see how well that's going :smileywink:

 

Nobody can or will do anything if Moldova goes. (And, is it really surrounded by NATO countries?)

 

The line will be drawn with more of Ukraine (which is larger than most EU countries) or Belarus which would put them on Poland's doorstep.  That ALWAYS makes Europe nervous.  As it should. 

 

 

 


 


Let us make one thing perfectly clear here.

 

NATO is only as powerful and good as it's most powerful member.

 

That would be who?

 

At one time it was the United States.

 

I'm not so sure now.

 

NATO is like your fickle friend.

 

Loyalty is subjective term.

 

 

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~The result of shielding men from their follies is filling the world with fools.~

~ There are as many paths as there are people to walk them, and that each person is the best judge of which path they will walk at any given time.~
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sheba*
Community Member
Posts: 5,223
Registered: ‎05-28-2003

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

Yes, well, Ukraine is also a member, and we see how well that's going 

 

Yes, but the Russians just bit off a little corner that was connected to their border and already contained a Russian port.

 

Taking over a country that is not contiguous with their border presents a whole other set of logistical as well as political problems.

 


http://files.chesscomfiles.com/images_users/tiny_mce/SonofPearl/Chess_board_image.jpg

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to runaway2da

runaway2da wrote:

tdziemianowicz wrote:

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint.

 

 


Nyet,

 

Nato and the EU won't do anything.

 

The Eu can't because Russia can cut off there gas and oil supply.

 

Estonia is a strategic land mass because of it's access to shipping.

 

Estonia also have a large population of ethnic Russians.

 

Look at a map.

 

If Russia controlled Crimea and Estonia.

 

They basically have Ukraine and the region surrounded and control of the water ways.


Um, yeah, I never thought of looking at a map.

 

Tallinn is peanuts.  Primorsk and St. Petersburg already ship 5 times as much tonnage.  Doesn't make any sense.

 

Crimea is different.  That one makes sense.

 

 

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runaway2da
Community Member
Posts: 3,361
Registered: ‎01-21-2009

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

tdziemianowicz wrote:

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint.

 

 


Nyet,

 

Nato and the EU won't do anything.

 

The Eu can't because Russia can cut off there gas and oil supply.

 

Estonia is a strategic land mass because of it's access to shipping.

 

Estonia also have a large population of ethnic Russians.

 

Look at a map.

 

If Russia controlled Crimea and Estonia.

 

They basically have Ukraine and the region surrounded and control of the water ways.

------------------------------------------

~The result of shielding men from their follies is filling the world with fools.~

~ There are as many paths as there are people to walk them, and that each person is the best judge of which path they will walk at any given time.~
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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

[ Edited ]
in reply to sheba*

sheba* wrote:

tdziemianowicz wrote:

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint. 


While not a formal member of NATO, Moldova does have NATO connections as a member of EAPC.

 

 The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a NATO institution, is a multilateral forum created to improve relations between NATO and non-NATO countries in Europe and those parts of Asia on the European periphery. States meet to cooperate and go to the range of political and security issues. It was formed on January 1, 1997 as the failure to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) and works alongside the Partnership for Peace (PfP), both created post-Cold War - the former in 1991, the latter in 1994.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Atlantic_Partnership_Council#Members

 

The strategic problem with Moldova, by looking at the map is if Russia takes it without taking at least part of Ukraine, or one of the other countries, it's a tiny country, surrounded by NATO countries, and would be hard for Russia to control without taking at least part of the other countries.

 

http://cerebralsynthesis.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/strategy-chess.jpg

 


Yes, well, Ukraine is also a member, and we see how well that's going :smileywink:

 

Nobody can or will do anything if Moldova goes. (And, is it really surrounded by NATO countries?)

 

The line will be drawn with more of Ukraine (which is larger than most EU countries) or Belarus which would put them on Poland's doorstep.  That ALWAYS makes Europe nervous.  As it should. 

 

 

 


 

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sheba*
Community Member
Posts: 5,223
Registered: ‎05-28-2003

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

in reply to tdziemianowicz

tdziemianowicz wrote:

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint. 


While not a formal member of NATO, Moldova does have NATO connections as a member of EAPC.

 

 The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a NATO institution, is a multilateral forum created to improve relations between NATO and non-NATO countries in Europe and those parts of Asia on the European periphery. States meet to cooperate and go to the range of political and security issues. It was formed on January 1, 1997 as the failure to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) and works alongside the Partnership for Peace (PfP), both created post-Cold War - the former in 1991, the latter in 1994.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro-Atlantic_Partnership_Council#Members

 

The strategic problem with Moldova, by looking at the map is if Russia takes it without taking at least part of Ukraine, or one of the other countries, it's a tiny country, surrounded by NATO countries, and would be hard for Russia to control without taking at least part of the other countries.

 

http://cerebralsynthesis.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/strategy-chess.jpg

 

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

[ Edited ]
in reply to runaway2da

runaway2da wrote:

tdziemianowicz wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Moldova.

 

Already underway.  As with Crimea, not by "attack," but by invitation.

 

 


So is Estonia.

 

Russia just created an excuse to march into Estonia.

 



Nyet, comrade.

 

As in Crimea, Moldovan politicians have already broached the subject of rejoining the Motherland.  

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/03/18/Putin-four-invasions

 

Nothing like this in Estonia.

 

 

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Community Member
Posts: 2,704
Registered: ‎03-06-2012

Re: Russia Takes Over Gas Plant Outside Crimia

[ Edited ]
in reply to runaway2da

runaway2da wrote:

laddieboyblue wrote:

What country will Putin attack next after Ukraine?


Estonia


He's way too smart to bite off a NATO and EU country next.  Too big of a step.  More likely a feint.

 

 

Please use plain text.